With less than three weeks to play in the regular season, the Toronto Blue Jays’ playoff hopes still hang in the balance. After 162 games, they’ll either be flying out for an American League wild-card series or clearing out their lockers for the offseason.
With notes on Toronto’s season so far, what a playoff race could look like and potential offseason scenarios, here’s the latest Blue Jays mailbag. Some questions have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Why does Brendon Little have so much rope with the coaching staff and front office? — Shaun J.
Little was terrible early this season and late last year. There’s no arguing that. That’s why the Jays optioned him to Triple A in June. But since his return on July 20, Little has a 2.37 ERA and 3.67 FIP. While the walks remain an issue and he has appeared in mostly low-leverage situations, he’s been perfectly capable in the second half.
The reason the Jays didn’t cast him aside, though, is that he has some of the best raw stuff in the organization. His slider gets the eighth-highest whiff rate among any pitch in baseball. His knuckle curve is a top-50 pitch, too. But in order to become more effective, he’s had to make real changes. Last year, Little basically only threw his curve and sinker. In August, he was a four-pitch guy, throwing his slider, curve, sinker and four-seamer almost equally.
The new mix has helped him become less predictable, get in the zone more when he needs to and limit homers. It’s still a work in progress, and the walks are obviously frustrating, but this version of Little is certainly a big-league reliever.
Is there an argument to be made that John Schneider is doing an amazing job this year amid injuries, tough breaks and high expectations from the Jays faithful? — Nitin P.
Just over a month ago, the Jays traded three of their longest-tenured veterans and members of the team’s core leadership group. They were battered with injuries and eight games under .500. Players were crying on the plane to Houston and hugging teammates in the clubhouse minutes before the deadline.
In most years, that would’ve been the end of the season. Most teams would call up some kids, play it out and look to 2027. So it’s pretty easy to make the argument that manager John Schneider and the Jays’ coaching staff deserve a lot of credit for keeping this team in the race. They’ve worked through bullpen games, managed a constantly injured rotation, found a bit more offence and kept a new clubhouse believing in a playoff race.
Schneider is just one of a bunch of factors in Toronto’s resurgence. It’s taken sparkplugs like Brett Bateman and Charles McAdoo, the rest of the AL wild-card race staying mediocre and a tired bullpen continuing to pitch well. Just like early in the season, it’s unfair to blame Schneider for all the Jays struggles, with injuries and slumping stars also playing a part. And it’s unfair to give him all the credit now. But he certainly deserves some. Ultimately, though, this game is about winning. If the Jays get to October, Schneider will surely get his flowers.
George Springer could be the odd man out for the Blue Jays as he hits free agency after the season. (Jay Biggerstaff / Getty Images)
Which, if any, of these free agents do you think the Blue Jays consider bringing back next year? George Springer, Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber or Kevin Gausman. — Anonymous U.
Springer has given a lot to the Jays over the last six years, both in the clubhouse and on the field, but bringing back a 37-year-old pure designated hitter would really limit the Jays’ roster flexibility. Having that spot open for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kazuma Okamoto and perhaps Anthony Santander would really open up the 2027 Jays.
If Scherzer wants to come back, the Jays probably won’t say no. This year, more than any other, proved you can never have too many starting pitchers. While Scherzer isn’t going to give the Jays 150 good innings next year, he can be one of many options. I’m curious to see if Scherzer waits into the summer before joining an organization in need of his services if he does still want to pitch.
Bieber and Gausman are the two names on this list that make the most sense to bring back. Both players, and their families, love Toronto and it probably wouldn’t take massive multiyear deals to get either to the Jays in 2027, if Gausman decides he wants to keep pitching. While Toronto will enter next season with a rotation of Dylan Cease, José Soriano, Trey Yesavage, Cody Ponce and Spencer Arrighetti, there’s a clear need for another mid-rotation starter in that group.
Do the Jays have enough pitching to win a five-game series? — Sportsfan F.
If anything, the Jays’ potential playoff rotation is one of their top strengths. With how the current postseason schedule is set up, the Jays could get through a wild-card round and five-game series with just three starters. Last year, the National League Divisional Series had an extra off day that allowed teams to use just three starters. This year, that off day is on the AL side.
Assuming Cease and Soriano start the first two games of a wild-card series, that leaves Scherzer and/or Yesavage for Game 3. If Toronto advances, Cease and Soriano wouldn’t be ready until the second and third games of a divisional series, but the Jays could still use their bullpen and three starters to get through.
Here is the ALDS schedule and how the Jays could line things up out of a wild-card series:
Oct. 3: Scherzer, Yesavage or bullpen game if both pitch in wild-card Game 3
Oct. 5: Cease
Oct. 7: Soriano
Oct. 8: Scherzer, Yesavage
Oct. 10: Cease
Do the Jays have enough pitching to get to the playoffs though? That’s a real concern.
How screwed are we if the cap comes in under our payroll? — Jack H.
First off, who knows if a cap will come about next year. Even if some sort of spending restriction arrives, it won’t likely be a Day 1 cap that forces teams over a certain number to trim payroll. Any impact on Toronto would manifest over time. Still, though, it wouldn’t be great for a Jays team that’s sat in the top-seven, per Cot’s Baseball Contract, in payroll over each of the last four years.
One of Toronto’s biggest advantages over the last half-decade is being one of a small handful of teams willing to give out massive free-agent contracts. The team culture is nice, the family room is great and the player development complex is a bonus, but the money is really what brings free agents to the table. If that ability to spend is limited in any real way, it hurts the Jays.
Some franchises are always going to be dreamy destinations, because of reputation, location and other factors. The Jays, while they’ve drawn players in recent years, don’t have the benefit of low taxes or sandy beaches. Their real strength, lately, has been money. A cap limits that strength.
Was wondering if the Blue Jays pitching philosophy is directly related to the number of arm injuries, or is it just an anomaly? — Dan A.
The Jays, this year, have already used 38 pitchers, the fourth-most in MLB. In 2023, they used 27 pitchers, the fourth-fewest. Some years, you get lucky with health. Other years, injuries destroy you.
If anything, the Jays’ pitching acquisition philosophy over the last five years has been to acquire durability in Cease, José Berríos, Gausman and Chris Bassitt. They’ve passed on upside at times, hoping to avoid years like this.
If there’s one factor that could explain some of the ailments, it may be Toronto’s run to the World Series last year. Yesavage experienced the longest baseball season of his life, Berríos pitched through pain in the regular season and Bieber came off Tommy John rehab right into a pennant race and October push. Then they had a short offseason to prepare for 2026.
The Jays were worried about their pitching health this year after the stress last season. That’s why they entered spring training with eight big-league starters. Obviously, even that wasn’t enough.
Do you see Davis Schneider being brought up in the regular season or playoffs? — smanojkarthick
It doesn’t seem likely. Since being optioned to Buffalo in early August, Schneider is hitting .135 with a .622 OPS in Triple A. The Jays have been running out Myles Straw in left against southpaws lately, but if they wanted a different look, McAdoo would get some time out there.
Getting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. straightened out will be a top priority for the Blue Jays in the offseason. (Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
What’s the plan if we don’t make the postseason? — Anonymous U.
Buy a ticket to a beach town somewhere and hole up until the lockout is over.
In all seriousness, the Jays probably need at least one starting pitcher and one mid-lineup bat. More than anything, they need Guerrero to come into next spring training with his swing in a great place. There isn’t a single move the Jays could make this winter bigger than getting Guerrero right.
With announced replacements for Angel Stadium and Kauffman Stadium, the Rogers Centre may soon be one of the oldest stadiums in MLB. What is the likelihood the Rogers Centre will make it to 50? — Rowen B.
The Jays’ recent ballpark renovations, team president Mark Shapiro said earlier this year, bought the stadium “a good 15 years.” They could conceivably renovate again in a decade or so, but most likely that’s when they’ll start building a new home. Rogers Centre could make it to 50, but that would probably be its last major milestone.
For the Jays to make the postseason, who do you think is the “X-factor” outside the usual suspects? — BT Y.
Since the All-Star break, Ernie Clement is hitting .232 with a .554 OPS. Everybody in the sport knows what Clement can do when he is really locked in. Now would be a great time for a hot streak.
How many wins will it take for the Blue Jays to make the playoffs? — Gavin N.
For the last few weeks, I’ve thought it was going to take 84 wins. They can’t afford to lose many more series at this point.