Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi, right, and Kyle Campbell, MLA-elect for Calgary-Shaw, speak to the media in Calgary, Tuesday.Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
Alberta’s ruling United Conservative Party was hit with a stunning by-election upset on Monday in Calgary, in one of the country’s most reliably conservative urban ridings, one month ahead of the province’s vote on independence.
While Premier Danielle Smith’s office blamed the loss on a split conservative vote and low turnout, political experts described the looming provincial referendum on independence as an albatross around the government’s neck that turned the by-election into a protest vote.
Alberta NDP candidate Kyle Campbell won the riding of Calgary-Shaw in the city’s south late Monday night, with roughly 47 per cent of the vote. He defeated UCP candidate Mike Derry by just 582 votes, according to preliminary results from Elections Alberta.
The NDP won the seat in Calgary-Shaw once, in the 2015 election. But the UCP, formed in 2017 as a merger between the Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose Party, won the riding in the following two provincial elections without breaking a sweat.
It won the riding in the 2023 provincial election with 56 per cent of the vote, by a margin of 14 percentage points. In 2019, it defeated the NDP by a 40-percentage-point margin.
The new legislature member for Calgary-Shaw and Alberta’s NDP leader Naheed Nenshi say concerns about a referendum on separation next month helped their cause in Monday’s by-election in Calgary Shaw. Unofficial results show NDP candidate Kyle Campbell defeated the United Conservative Party candidate by nearly 600 votes.
The Canadian Press
The New Democrats’ win in the staunch conservative riding is being widely viewed as a rebuke of how Ms. Smith has handled the question of Alberta separatism. In less than five weeks, on Oct. 19, Albertans will vote on whether to remain in Canada or lay the legal groundwork for a second, binding secession vote.
Even so, it remains an open question whether the by-election result is a short-term punishment for Ms. Smith’s government or a signal of changing political winds in Alberta.
Sam Blackett, spokesperson for Ms. Smith, pinned the result on a fragmented conservative vote and fewer voters showing up to the polls. He also stressed the importance of unity among the Alberta right.
While the newly formed Progressive Tory Party of Alberta put 978 votes on the board, the Alberta Liberal Party – which has been in the political wilderness for years – raked in 602 votes, according to unofficial results.
Turnout, meanwhile, was roughly 38 per cent – well below the 63 per cent turnout in the last provincial election in 2023, but several percentage points higher than recent by-elections in Alberta. UCP voters turned out in significantly lower numbers than NDP supporters compared to the last general election.
“In 5 weeks, the referendum vote will be over, and we’re confident Albertans will be ready to move forward and fight for a stronger Alberta within a united Canada,” Mr. Blackett wrote in an e-mailed statement.
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Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi, meanwhile, called his party’s win a “shockwave that ran through Alberta politics.”
“This was a vote against Danielle Smith, but we wouldn’t have won if it was a vote against Danielle Smith alone. This was a vote for the Alberta NDP,” Mr. Nenshi said at a Tuesday morning news conference with Mr. Campbell.
Monday’s result in Calgary-Shaw surprised observers across the political spectrum.
“It’s an astonishing result,” Michael Solberg, a former staffer to prime minister Stephen Harper and partner at New West Public Affairs, said in an interview.
Mr. Solberg said there were several factors at play in the UCP’s defeat, but there seems to be a link to voters’ feelings about the Oct. 19 referendum.
“I think it is an albatross around her neck right now,” Mr. Solberg said of Ms. Smith.
“The party is lucky there’s not a general election in the next five weeks. But there is a huge opportunity for the Premier to turn the page in five weeks.”
Alberta independence ballot count expected to run deep into morning after vote
The upcoming referendum question on separation has put Ms. Smith’s United Conservatives in a bind. Ms. Smith has declared herself a federalist in favour of a “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada,” and says she will vote to remain in Canada.
But she is also leading a party that is increasingly influenced by vocal separatists, putting her at odds with a large segment of the UCP membership. Critics have argued that segment of the party holds disproportionate sway over the Premier.
Former premier Jason Kenney, one of the loudest voices in the pro-Canada movement and the UCP’s first leader, warned in a Tuesday social-media post that separatism is toxic for the conservative movement: “A vote to separate is a vote to help the NDP win the next provincial election, and for the Liberal Party of Canada to win far more Alberta seats.”
Evan Menzies, vice-president at Crestview Strategy and former director of communications for the UCP, described the referendum as a “lead balloon for a large segment of the Alberta population.”
But Mr. Menzies, also the former communications director for the Wildrose Party led by Ms. Smith in the early 2010s, said he believes the damage will be temporary.
“I don’t see it as I’ve seen others lay it out, as a permanent shift in Alberta politics.”
Polling has consistently shown a vast majority of Albertans reject separatism. Mr. Menzies said that should the pro-Canada side secure a resounding victory in October, Ms. Smith’s government should look to put the issue in the rear-view mirror.
“I don’t think it will be dominating the election landscape in October, 2027.”
Shannon Phillips, a former Alberta NDP MLA and ex-provincial environment minister, said the New Democrats’ victory surprised her because of the area’s history of electing conservatives. But she believes the referendum, nearly a month out, has frustrated large segments of the province.
“This was a protest vote against the very existence of the referendum,” she said.
Ms. Phillips said the victory will throw wind in the NDP’s sails, but it’s uncertain whether that momentum will continue.
“No event is ever fixed in time, and it depends on who’s going to do politics.”