It comes as the impact of GLP-1 drugs, which suppress the desire for alcohol as well as food – has emerged as a major talking point for major drinks companies such as Diageo and Pernod Ricard in markets across the world.
At the same time, the survey reinforced the continuing impact of rising costs and a lack of business and consumer confidence on the hospitality trade, with 58% of outlets stating that business is in decline.
While the World Cup provided a temporary fillip – 66% of respondents said trading was stable or grew during the tournament – there was no such benefit from the Commonwealth Games that was hosted by Glasgow in late July and early August, the SLTA found.
“The World Cup provided a brief sales boost, but the broader economic outlook remains challenging,” said Colin Wilkinson, managing director of the SLTA.
“A new trend has also emerged with 16% of respondents saying visits have declined because of the weight-loss drugs phenomenon.”
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He added: “Quite a lot of our members have been telling me for some time now that they’re noticing people having maybe just a main course and no starter or dessert, and one has even had customers asking if they can order from the children’s menu.
“Others have experienced customers sharing a main course and, in one instance, even sharing a bowl of soup.
“There’s definitely a shift in customer behaviour and while we can’t say definitively that this trend is down to use of weight-loss drugs – it could also relate to cost of living pressures and people reining in their spending – many members believe that this medication is having an impact on their sales.”
The SLTA found that costs are continuing to rise across the industry, with 97% of outlets reporting increases year on year; 57% said they face cost increases “significantly above” the UK rate of inflation.
Despite concerns in the industry over costs, the survey, which is based on the views of more than 300 pubs, bars, restaurants, and hotels, signalled an improving level of confidence across the industry. Some 71% of outlets said they were expecting to break even or be profitable, compared with 63% in the SLTA’s winter survey.
The trading forecast for the remainder of 2026 was found to be more optimistic, with 61% of outlets expecting growth or stability, compared with 58% in January. There was also a 9% drop in the number of outlets which are considering closing.
Meanwhile, a clear majority of respondents to the survey highlighted a lack of engagement with the industry by the Scottish Government. After 84% of respondents observed a lack of Scottish Government “economic alignment” with pubs and bars in previous surveys, 89% commented that the level of engagement has not changed since the Scottish Parliament election in May.
Mr Wilkinson said: “One of our unique challenges in Scotland is a higher cost base, as hospitality businesses in Scotland face higher commercial rates and energy charges than our counterparts across the rest of the UK.
“Business profitability remains a major concern, so we urge all parties within the Scottish Parliament to place early rates reform, and within the Westminster Parliament a reduction in VAT (value-added tax) for the licensed hospitality sector, truly at the heart of their economic strategies.
“Both governments have recently stated again that one of their core priorities is growing the economy. Well, the time is now – no more just ‘talk the talk’, it’s time to ‘walk the walk’.”
Mr Wilkinson added that the UK Government should follow the example set by the Republic of Ireland, where VAT rates have been cut for the hospitality sector.
“The SLTA calls on the UK to support the UK hospitality and tourism sector in the same manner and reduce VAT, something the new Prime Minister supported not that long ago,” he said.
“We also ask – again – for Scotland’s First Minister to add his support for a VAT reduction for the hospitality sector, something he dodged answering recently when asked by one of his own industry-respected party colleagues Alyn Smith MSP, if he would back the UK-wide ‘VAT’s the Problem’ campaign which is calling on the Westminster government to cut VAT to 10% for hospitality businesses.
“We also ask the Scottish Government to fast-track the review of the commercial rating methodology used for the rating of licensed hospitality venues in Scotland and to engage more closely with the sector.”
The SLTA published its survey on the day a coalition of more than 800 hospitality businesses across the UK wrote an open letter to Prime Minister Andy Burnham calling for him to lower the rate of VAT for the industry.
The letter was submitted as part of the industry’s #VATsTheProblem campaign.
“It’s time for a fairer tax burden for hospitality,” the letter states. “Without action, closures will only continue to accelerate, jobs will continue to be lost and opportunities for young people reduced.
“More than 370,000 people have signed the #VATsTheProblem petition calling for a 10% rate of VAT for hospitality, bringing the UK in line with the European average.
“We trust we can count on your support, following your comments in February this year that you would “argue for a VAT rate more consistent with what you find in Europe because of the social value that your businesses bring to places and towns”.