A report on Alberta’s separation from Canada finds establishing a new country would cost several tens of billions of dollars and as much as $170 billion in the first five years.
However, the report also shows some long term benefits for Albertans. In addressing the report, the province says in a news release “the short-term impacts of potential separation would result in significant economic disruption and costs for Albertans.”
They add the report was commissioned by the Danielle Smith government to “provide Albertans with reliable, transparent information ahead of the Oct. 19 referendum”, and examine potential the potential economic impact of separation.
The University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy report says the cost of establishing a new country could range from $50 billion to $170 billion in the first five years following separation, and would be in addition to the impact on economic growth and Alberta’s fiscal position.
The report outlines a pair of scenarios for separation, a “smooth” and “difficult” transition, both of which are expected to be economically troublesome.
In the difficult case, the report anticipates limits on trade and market access that could create lasting economic challenges for both Alberta and Canada.
“Even after 20 years, employment could be nearly five per cent lower and Alberta’s economy more than 16 per cent smaller than if the province remained in Canada. Despite higher taxes, the government could face an ongoing annual budget deficit of more than $30 billion.”
A smoother transition could see Alberta possibly keeping access to major trade markets, as well as expand resource development depending on a positive climate. But long term benefits could be seen by Albertans with higher income and less taxes.
The report studied factors such as the costs of administering programs under federal jurisdiction, monetary policy, labour mobility and international trade relationships.
The province is also revealing the results of an advisory panel appointed to review the new report and prepare an independent assessment.
“The panel concurs that separation results in short run economic costs for Alberta for uncertain net benefits in the longer run. However, we also stress that Canadians should be aware that Alberta’s separation will undoubtedly harm Canada as well.” says the panel’s chair Dr. Jack Mintz in a statement.
The report can be read online.
Flags of Canada and the province of Alberta fly at full-mast. (CityNews file image)
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