Written by Bloomberg• August 22, 2025•
9:27 AM•
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By Erik Hertzberg
(Bloomberg) — Canadian retail sales are set to decline after a weak second quarter, capturing a slowdown in consumption spending amid elevated trade uncertainty and slowing population growth.
An advance estimate suggests receipts for retailers fell 0.8% in July, following June’s 1.5% jump, according to Statistics Canada data released Friday.
The June figures matched a median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Retail sales rose just 0.4% in the second quarter, a deceleration from the 1.1% increase in the first three months of the year.
The quarterly retail figures are the weakest since the middle of 2024 — underscoring consumer caution in the face of economic and tariff uncertainty. The weakness also likely reflects a significant slowdown in immigration due to curbs put in place by the Canadian government.
“This is consistent with a generally more cautious attitude among consumers to spending amid tariff uncertainty particularly compared to the solid growth seen during the second half of 2024,” Andrew Grantham, an economist with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, wrote in a report to investors. He added it “isn’t the sort of consumer spending that should worry Bank of Canada policymakers from an inflation point of view as they debate whether to cut interest rates further.”
The statistics agency didn’t provide details for the July estimate, which is based on responses from 55% of companies surveyed.
June’s increase was driven by food, beverage and clothing retailer sectors. Sales in all subsectors rose that month.
Excluding autos, sales rose 1.9% in June, higher than the median of economist expectations. Core retail sales, which exclude gas stations and car dealers, expanded 0.9% in the second quarter, also a deceleration from the 1.8% pace in the first three months of the year.
In volume terms, total retail sales rose 1.5% in June. Sales were up in six of 10 provinces, and retail sales in Toronto rose 3.9% on the month.
The data highlight gradually slowing household consumption amid tariffs and heightened economic uncertainty, despite significant interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada since last June. Policymakers have held borrowing costs at 2.75% for the past three meetings as they weigh the weakening economy against persistently stubborn core inflation pressures.
So far, damage from the trade war has been limited to sectors reliant on US demand. The statistics agency reported 27% of retailers said they were affected by trade tensions in June, compared with 32% in May. It says the most common impacts cited were “price increases, change in demand for product and delays in the supply chain.”
–With assistance from Randy Thanthong-Knight and Mario Baker Ramirez.
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Last modified: August 22, 2025