Quinn Allen
• Betting Analyst
7+ years betting experience
Updated:
Sep 19, 2026 , 12:34 PM ET
• 4 min read
Cody Bellinger lands a favorable home-run matchup tonight, per our MLB expert.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Cody Bellinger of the New York Yankees.
Another full slate of games across the majors means lots of opportunity for long balls in my MLB home run props.
My MLB player props will start things off with Alex Bregman, followed by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Cody Bellinger.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Sep. 19.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Player to hit a HR
Chance
Alex Bregman
17%
Fernando Tatis Jr.
21%
Cody Bellinger
15%
💲Today’s HR parlay
195.91x
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Home run prediction: Alex Bregman (20%)
Play up to 21%.
Alex Bregman has clubbed two home runs in his last six games, and he also has a .550 ISO during that span with a .400 average. The veteran is scorching hot, and his 57.9% fly-ball rate recently provides support for a potential bomb tonight.
The matchup is also intriguing for this pick. Cincinnati Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo has a 7.04 FIP in his previous two starts while allowing 2.08 HR/9. The Reds’ bullpen is also having trouble with the long ball, giving up 1.41 HR/9 in its last 28 innings of work.
Bregman has the current profile to make Cincy’s staff pay tonight.
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, Reds.TV
Home run prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr. (24%)
Play up to 25%.
It took Fernando Tatis Jr. some time to find his power stroke this season, but he’s undoubtedly come alive. The San Diego Padres superstar has three home runs in the last week and a .414 ISO. He’s now up to 23 bombs on the year after sitting at just five homers before the All-Star break.
Tatis has a 50% hard-hit rate and 18.2% barrel rate in his last seven contests, and he faces a vulnerable Eury Perez tonight. The Miami Marlins righty owns a 6.28 FIP over the last month while surrendering 2.08 HR/9.
Miami’s bullpen has also allowed 1.27 HR/9 over its previous 28 1/3 frames. Tatis has multiple paths here.
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Padres.TV, Marlins.TV
Home run prediction: Cody Bellinger (16%)
Play up to 20%.
Cody Bellinger is tearing the cover off the baseball right now. The slugger has three homers in his last six games and a .360 ISO. He gets a matchup tonight that plays in his favor, too. Brandon Pfaadt takes the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he’s allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and 1.72 HR/9 across his previous five starts.
Bellinger is consistently getting lift, posting a 52.2% FB rate during the last week, and Pfaadt is allowing his fair share of fly balls lately as well. This is a strong position for Bellinger to smack a long ball in his home state.
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: YES, DBacks.TV
Quinn Allen’s 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 18-100, -16.89 units
Best home run combo for September 19
Alex Bregman
Trade Now
195.91x
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Cody Bellinger
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Quinn Allen is an experienced sports journalist from Vancouver, Canada who fell in love with sports by the time he could walk. He proceeded to play high-level baseball and soccer growing up and eventually played college baseball in the United States.
After his career ended, Quinn received his broadcast journalism degree from BCIT and has since written for many sports publications including ClutchPoints, Gino Hard, and RG, where he plies his trade as a writer and editor.
Quinn’s favorite team is Chelsea FC and he’d like to watch a match at Stamford Bridge one day. He loves to bet on NBA player props and encourages others to bet responsibly and not chase losses.
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