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A poll surveying a sample of Winnipeg voters suggests just over half of the city’s electorate is unsure who they would choose to be the next mayor, with incumbent candidate Scott Gillingham leading among those who are decided.
Between Aug. 28 and Sept. 14 Abacus Data — formerly known as Probe Research — canvassed 600 Winnipeg adults on behalf of the Winnipeg Free Press regarding the city’s mayoral race.
The poll found 51 per cent of respondents didn’t know which candidate they would vote for if the election was to be held the next day.
That’s in contrast to 20 per cent of respondents who said they would cast their ballot for Scott Gillingham.
Of the 600 adults surveyed. eight per cent would vote for Kevin Klein and four per cent for Mike Vogiatzakis. Thirteen per cent of respondents said they will not vote.
All respondents were randomly recruited and they completed the survey using an online platform.
Abacus Data said the results from the poll — which has a margin of error of four percentage points and a certainty of 95 per cent — suggest Gillingham stands a high chance of being re-elected.
But given how many respondents are still undecided, there is not a “great deal of enthusiasm” among voters for the current mayor or those challenging his incumbency.
Not a second choice for most
Among decided voters, 55 per cent would like to see Gillingham serve another term in office. Klein placed second with 23 per cent of support and Vogiatzakis third with 11 per cent.
But of the 266 respondents who have a preference for a mayoral candidate, 63 per cent are unsure of a second choice, especially those backing Gillingham.
The poll suggests 68 per cent of the incumbent mayor supporters don’t have a second choice. Gillingham was the alternative candidate for four per cent of decided respondents.
Twenty-six per cent of Klein supporters said Vogiatzakis is their next preferred option — still both candidates are the second choice for only about one in 10 decided voters.
Respondents were also asked about their intention of voting in the upcoming election slated for Oct. 28.
Of the 600 adults surveyed, 77 per cent indicated it is probable they will cast their ballot — 65 per cent very likely and 12 per cent somewhat likely.
Abacus Data said this figure is often overstated and those who don’t have a preferred mayoral candidate in mind — who represent the majority of respondents — are much less certain about casting their ballots.
Gillingham, Klein and Vogiatzakis are among 15 Winnipeg mayoral candidates registered as of Saturday.
Candidates who registered while the survey was being conducted or after were not included in it.