The 2025 Formula One season is heading towards the end of its summer break. Before team staff and drivers had headed to the beach, the campaign had already raced past its halfway point. And it was jam-packed with action.

Many in the paddock will only now be recovering from such a frantic start, with nine races in the opening 12 weeks. Adding to the intensity were the many massive storylines that flowed through these events — none bigger than the McLaren drivers’ title fight.

The momentum swinging between Lando Norris and current points leader Oscar Piastri has made yet another F1 season of one team domination much more engaging than 2023, when Max Verstappen swept all before him for Red Bull. But the Dutchman’s brilliance and typical aggression have made 2025 even better too, with his stunning Japan and Imola wins, plus his Spain red mist moment.

The McLaren drivers have collided once, and come close to crashing twice more, but for now at least, they remain good friends. Yet the orange team’s success has stifled the hope that 2025 would be a campaign for the ages, with many squads in the title hunt. McLaren can even seal a second successive constructors’ crown as early as Baku in late September.

Behind, there has been midfield magic and misery galore, with Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari switch turning from dream to distress. And there are the highs and lows of a bumper rookie crop, too.

After all that, we’re reviewing our predictions made ahead of the season. In a shocking twist, most missed the mark. Our panel have therefore been granted two mulligans as they reassess this summer, as well as the traditional double-down, when thinking ahead to the season run-in.

Measure these against your own expectations for 2025, while I get to bask in the smug glow that only joining The Athletic in April means I can be 100 percent not wrong in all this, until we come to predict next season, anyway.

Alex Kalinauckas

Panel: Michael Bailey, Madeline Coleman, Luke Smith and Patrick Iversen

Constructors’ podium
Luke Smith: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull
Madeline Coleman: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull
Patrick Iversen: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull
Michael Bailey: Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull

Where things stand: McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes

Drivers’ podium
Smith: Norris, Verstappen, Piastri
Coleman: Norris, Charles Leclerc, Verstappen
Iversen: Verstappen, Norris, Leclerc
Bailey: Hamilton, Norris, Verstappen

Where things stand: Piastri, Norris, Verstappen

Coleman: I weighed up swapping my best young driver to Isack Hadjar, but I’ll use my first mulligan on overhauling my drivers’ podium. I believe Piastri will win the drivers’ world championship, Norris will finish second, and George Russell will overtake Verstappen for third. Piastri has been the cleaner driver in the McLaren, and if Mercedes can find a more consistent car performance window, Russell will continue being competitive for podium finishes. It’ll be close between Verstappen and Russell, but I’m feeling bold here, just because of the car differential. Verstappen remains the stronger driver.

Alex Albon matched his best finish of 2025 (fifth) from Miami with this drive at Imola. (Malcolm Griffiths / Formula 1 / Getty Images)Best of the rest
Smith: Alpine
Coleman: Alpine
Iversen: Aston Martin
Bailey: Alpine

Where things stand: Williams

Coleman: Talk about a swing and a miss from us on this one. I’m taking a mulligan for ‘best of the rest,’ but I do want to point out that despite Alpine’s car issues, Pierre Gasly has kept the team in regular points contention. It may be last in the standings and miles off of fifth, but Alpine already has the most points for any team that has finished last in the constructors’ standings in the modern era (from the points format change in 2010). That being said, Alpine sits 50 points off of fifth-place Williams. There are still three sprint races and 10 grands prix to go, but I believe Williams will hold on. I have a feeling this’ll be a close battle to the end, so keep an eye on the midfield.

Smith: I think I also need to take a mulligan on this one. Alpine has been nowhere near the level of performance I anticipated from 2024, its cause not helped by the struggles in the second car for Franco Colapinto and Jack Doohan. Williams has been impressive and, despite its early end on development for 2025, I think it’ll end up holding on to P5.

Surprise pole
Smith: Kimi Antonelli
Coleman: Antonelli
Iversen: Liam Lawson
Bailey: Gasly

Where things stand: None

Iversen: At the time, I said, “I will take no further questions about this incredibly safe pick.” You fool. You absolute silly goose. I’m using a mulligan here. Please. Lawson’s hopes of a pole ended when Red Bull demoted him after two race weekends. Not only was this not a “surprise,” it’s turned out to be a statistical improbability. In hindsight, calling this a “safe pick” was like voting an acorn as “Most Likely to Survive Re-entry into Earth’s Atmosphere.”

For my mulligan, I’ll take Hamilton for my surprise pole. I never would have considered him back in March for this category. After 14 races at Ferrari? Yeah, it’d be surprising now that Saturdays have become “Hamilton Despondency Day” with increasing frequency. A pole would go a long way toward rebuilding his confidence and making everyone forget my original pick here.

Kalinauckas: Luke and Madeline should take half a point given Antonelli’s stunning Miami sprint qualifying result, but then I believe no sprint event should ever count for points (well, either events all must have them or, even better, none), so a moot point overall. Back to my smug cave.

Surprise podium
Smith: Esteban Ocon
Coleman: Carlos Sainz
Iversen: Antonelli
Bailey: Albon

Where things stand: Antonelli finished third in Canada

Iversen: I’m doubling down on Antonelli getting a podium this year. I think that’s a free two points for me, no? What do you mean we’re not scoring this?

Kalinauckas: Now you tell me there’s no points to award…

Antonelli celebrates his Canada podium, with a heckle from race winner Russell (Stefano Facchin/Alessio Morgese/NurPhoto/Getty Images)Most improved team
Smith: Mercedes
Coleman: Williams
Iversen: Williams
Bailey: Williams

Where things stand: Williams, adding 53 points and moving from 9th to 5th

Coleman: I’m doubling down on this one. Considering how quickly Williams shifted its focus to designing its 2026 car, I don’t believe anyone assumed it would have improved on its 2024 performance this significantly. Adding 53 points across three sprints and 14 grands prix to last season’s total, all while competitors continued developing their cars and Williams experienced reliability issues, is impressive. It’s gone from once being considered a backmarker to the ‘best of the rest’ frontrunner, and even if the other midfield teams close the gap and overtake for fifth-place, it won’t negate that Williams arguably is the most improved team of 2025.

Most improved driver
Smith: Verstappen’s teammate
Coleman: Hamilton
Iversen: Gasly
Bailey: Albon

Where things stand: Alex Albon (+42 points)

Smith: I’m definitely taking a mulligan on this one… I really thought that Lawson would make good on the promise we’d seen flashes of through his time at Racing Bulls in 2023 and 2024. He seemed so full of confidence. But there wasn’t a moment in his two-race stint at Red Bull that delivered, leading to the ruthless switch pre-Japan. I’ll change my pick to Albon on this, anticipating he’ll keep up his form through the rest of the season.

Best young driver
Smith: Antonelli
Coleman: Ollie Bearman
Iversen: Antonelli
Bailey: Hadjar

Where things stand: Hadjar (arguably)

Smith: This will be my double down for the rest of the season. There was a bit of me that considered mulligan-ing, as I’ve been increasingly impressed by Gabriel Bortoleto’s performances and I think he’s actually been the best rookie so far this season, accounting for Antonelli’s recent dip. But if we can get back to the Antonelli we saw pre-Imola, taking the Miami sprint pole and with growing confidence, I think he’ll end the year being regarded as top young driver. Mercedes reverting to its older-spec rear suspension helped bring the ‘old Kimi’ back in Hungary, even if we didn’t see that reproduced in the results. Now it’s for him to kick on and end the year strong.

Kalinauckas: Another win for Michael, but only because I’ve overruled and selected Hadjar, given Luke and Madeline have him ahead of the other rookies in our mid-season driver rankings. And driver rankings are sacred in my book, even though everyone disagrees with all of them…

Imagine a moment we’ll remember from this season

Smith: First contact between Norris and Piastri
Coleman: Hamilton’s first win as a Ferrari driver
Iversen: The questions and angst around Hamilton as Leclerc starts out-performing him by mid-season.
Bailey: Verstappen and another driver getting wildly upset with his driving

Where things stand: Hamilton’s Shanghai sprint win, Verstappen colliding with Russell in Spain, Norris/Piastri contact

Iversen: I’m taking my second mulligan here. My original pick was based on the premise that Ferrari would have a championship-worthy car, leading to existential questions if one driver were performing better than the other. Instead, it’s been a tough car for either driver to tame. 

For my mulligan, I’ll go with a twist on Luke’s pick: The last contact of the season between Norris and Piastri will be the moment we remember the most from 2025, as it could very well decide who wins the championship. 

Kalinauckas: I’m being generous and highlighting Madeline’s Hamilton win pick, as even he acknowledged in China that a sprint victory means nothing compared to a pukka grand prix triumph. But Hamilton is still searching for this with Ferrari, and his quest to tick it off will be one of the major storylines to follow as 2025 resumes next week. Also, Pat is being harsh on his call. There was plenty of angst around the intra-Ferrari results as early as one month into the season.

(Top image: Erwin Scheriau/APA/AFP/Getty Images)