Daytona is the final track of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, which means one thing…chaos.
With the win-and-in playoff format, every driver not currently locked into the playoffs is gunning for a win, and even some of those that are locked in could benefit from five extra playoff points for the race win.
With this also being a drafting track, there’s bound to be mass chaos in the closing stage, which has rung true in almost every single Coke Zero Sugar 400 since the race moved to right before the playoffs in 2020.
Already at drafting tracks, there is a huge amount of variance, but add in the chaos of a must-win scenario for more than half the field and we’re truly getting a race where anything can happen.
My best model, using machine learning techniques, can’t even get above a 12% predictability out-of-sample, and that’s being generous as I’ve included a bit of Talladega — which is slightly more predictable — to build a larger sample size.
When variance is the name of the game, we rely on two things:
Ownership leverage
Place differential
And with only 160 laps scheduled (although this race has seen up to 165 laps with overtime), there are only around 100 dominator points available spread among 40 drivers, and the fastest lap points favor drivers in the back of the pack anyway.
That means forget dominators; this is 100% will you have the right combination of finishing position and place differential. And we can often leverage strong finishes in DFS tournaments by people not using enough of certain drivers.
With no practice, there’s no FLAGS, but as always, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway.
Coke Zero Sugar 400 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
Stack the Back: It goes without saying, but stacking the back of the field is always a strong strategy at drafting tracks.
One could argue it works the best here, in the most chaotic race of the year and with the fewest laps of any drafting track race, turning this into a place differential race even more than the others.
That means the likes of B.J. McLeod, Cody Ware, and yes, even Casey Mears and Joey Gase are in play.
My model reflects this, as it gives Mears and Gase 10%-plus chances of ending up in the optimal lineup. That’s because all it takes is one or two mass chaos events, which occur frequently in this race, to make this a 15-car race. And if they hang back and miss it all, suddenly they are likely going to end up optimal by starting 39th and 40th.
Leverage Ownership: Chase Elliott is going to be massively owned. But if past precedence is any indication, there’s a 55% chance he doesn’t even finish on the lead lap.
That means 45% of the time he will, but even then that doesn’t guarantee he ends up optimal starting from the 30th spot.
In addition, he could be helping his Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) teammate Alex Bowman (more on this in a minute), who isn’t locked into the race. If that’s the case, there’s even more potential for Elliott to be a bit farther back in the pack where he could get caught up in a wreck.
Go underweight on Elliott.
Noah Gragson ($6100): You’ll likely have plenty of Gragson already, as I project him to be around 20% rostered starting 32nd, but I think you should have more.
Gragson has stunk up the show this year, ranking 33rd in points, but he has excelled at drafting tracks. Despite his poor overall results, Gragson has had a third, fifth, sixth, and ninth in 12 starts at either Daytona or Talladega in his Cup career.
Literally 33% of the time he’s had a finish that would likely get him in the optimal lineup from a 32nd-place starting spot.
And that doesn’t include other DNFs or poor finishes where he was in the mix for the race win late, but chaos took over.
Gragson is the selfish, aggressive type I like, where he may cause a wreck and get caught up in it (or even drive through it), but that also puts him in a position to have upside, which is what we want in tournament formats.
I’ll have at least 30% Gragson.
Teammate Dynamics: This isn’t so much a pick as helping you with tournament strategy. There are a few notable teammate dynamic situations in play with the playoffs decided after this race.
HMS – If there is no new winner behind Alex Bowman in the standings, he’s in the playoffs. The problem is there’s about a 50/50 chance of that happening. His other three teammates, William Byron, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Larson, are locked in. Especially Elliott owes Bowman a favor after Elliott’s Atlanta win. Look for this quartet to help out Bowman if and when they can
Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing: Keselowski, co-owner of the team, isn’t locked into the playoffs. But that doesn’t mean the rest of the team is helping him. Teammates Chris Buescher and Ryan Preece are also in win-and-in mode, meaning at most one of three cars can make the playoffs. Look for this trio to work together to put them in position to win, but on the last lap or two, it’s every man for himself.
Richard Childress Racing (RCR): RCR got Austin Dillon locked into the playoffs with his Richmond win last week. Now all focus is on Kyle Busch. Dillon is on record stating he’s going to help Busch when and how he can, and we can expect the third RCR car added for this race, driven by Austin Hill, to do the same.
Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) and 23XI Racing: Only Ty Gibbs is not in the playoffs for JGR, while Tyler Reddick is not technically locked in for 23XI and Riley Herbst is in must-win mode. I’m listing these together because of the close alliance between JGR and 23XI, but at most only one of these two drivers can make the playoffs. Reddick is somewhat safe, with a 29-point lead over Bowman. If he maintains that lead, he’s locked in, but if he somehow has problems and/or Bowman outscores Reddick in stage points to make this close, Reddick will do whatever he can to have Alex Bowman in sight, so there’s some odd correlation between Reddick and Bowman. For Gibbs, you can expect the other JGR cars (Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Chase Briscoe) to help him out where they can, but Hamlin in particular could be conflicted if it comes to Reddick needing a push to close the gap to Bowman late or if Herbst is in position to win.
Every other team and driver you can pretty much assume is in win mode, although there could be a few special circumstances that matter at the fringes of correlation, like this one I talk about on X.
Coke Zero Sugar 400 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week!
Todd Gilliland is always a PMPOTW at Daytona when he starts in the mid-20s, but I really like Ty Dillon as an even better PMPOTW this week.
The other Dillon brother starts 23rd but has been in contention late in multiple drafting races this year and is a strong superspeedway driver overall.
Plus, he could always get a push from his playoff-bound brother if they find themselves near each other late and Kyle Busch is out of the picture through incident.
Dillon also has another strong superspeedway teammate in AJ Allmendinger, who also could be considered a PMPOTW type, starting 21st. If they work together until the last lap, they could get one of the two of them into the playoffs.
Coke Zero Sugar 400 DraftKings DFS Final Notes
If you’re asking, “Why don’t you have many specific picks?” It’s because I can’t give picks. Chaos racing isn’t about picking certain drivers but forming an overall strategy based off the chaos, the correlations, and the driver usage dynamics.
It’s always easier to predict the field’s usage than it is to predict a nearly fully random race, so use that to your advantage.
Oh, and if you want cash game strategy, just pick cars starting at the back. You can even choose the junk cars since we’re expecting chaos and they may actually be the least likely to be caught up in the big wrecks.