Friday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades

Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

After receiving shareholder approval for its sale to Kirin Holdings Co. in a deal valued at $2.5-billion, TD Cowen’s Cheryl Zhang downgraded Jamieson Wellness Inc. (JWEL-T) to “sell” from “hold” previously, recommending that investors tender their shares to the cash offer.

“Following yesterday’s special shareholder meeting where the transaction was approved by vote (70 per cent for/30 per cent against), we now expect the transaction to proceed and close later in Q4. As such, we are changing our rating to SELL and updating our price target to the cash offer price of $45.75 [from $49 previously and below the $46.21 average],” she said.

“We remain of the view that Jamieson offers both defensive qualities and compelling growth upside, and even modest success in the U.S. and China would be meaningful to earnings and the share price over time. Our SELL rating reflects our expectation that the acquisition by Kirin will be completed following the Sep. 30 shareholder approval.”

In a client report released Friday titled Starting to Feel like Groundhog Day, Raymond James real estate equity analyst Brad Sturges reduced his adjusted funds from operations estimates for both 2027 and 2028 by 1 per cent to reflect higher assumed financing costs following “the recent reversal in global interest rates and as central banks such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) may seek to implement 1 or more hikes in overnight rates to reduce inflation rates.”

“Since June 30, the 10-year Government of Canada (GoC) bond yield has risen by 46 basis points to 3.95 per cent,” he said. “In 3Q26, Canadian REIT/REOCs generated a simple average total return of negative 5 per cent, which reflects an 1 times 2027 estimate P/AFFO multiple contraction on average. Of note, Canadian MFR [multi-family residential] and international residential REITs experienced a lower average P/AFFO multiple contraction in 3Q26 of less than 1 times multiple turn, while Canadian office and storage REIT/REOCs experienced relatively greater average P/AFFO multiple contractions of 3 times and 2 times multiple turns, respectively.

“Our preferred Canadian property sector rankings are adjusted to: 1) seniors housing; 2) retail shopping centres; 3) industrial; 4) storage; 5) Canadian MFR; 6) international residential; and 7) office.”

With his updated forecast, Mr. Sturges adjusted the target prices for equities in his coverage universe and made these rating revisions:

* CT Real Estate Investment Trust (CRT.UN-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” with a $19.25 target (unchanged). The average target is $18.06.

Analyst: “We believe that CT screens relatively well for income-oriented investors seeking a defensively postured Canadian REIT investment with moderate growth prospects based on the REIT’s: 1) below-average financial leverage metrics; 2) long-term contractual cash flows that generally grow in the low-single-digit range year-over-year; 3) historical track record of growing its annualized distribution rate; and 4) attractive NAV/unit and AFFO/unit discount valuation following the recent pullback in its unit price.”

* Primaris REIT (PMZ.UN-T) to “strong buy” from “outperform” with a $25.50 target (unchanged). Average: $23.78.

Analyst: “We believe that Primaris’ 2Q26 AFFO/unit results could represent an effective trough, as we forecast Primaris’ AFFO/unit growth YoY to sequentially QoQ re-accelerate in 2H26, and early 2027. Supported by its blue-chip balance sheet strength, we believe that future leasing execution by Primaris may support a low-to-mid single-digit cash SP-NOI CAGR, or a high-single-digit AFFO and NAV CAGR. When combined with a 4-per-cent distribution yield and assuming modest P/AFFO multiple expansion, we suggest that Primaris’ potential total return CAGR profile may reach the mid-teens. Near-term positive catalysts include Primaris’ potential inclusion in the S&P/TSX Dividend Aristocrats Index in early 2027.”

* Sienna Senior Living Inc. (SIA-T) to “strong buy” from “outperform” with a $24.25 target, down from $25.75. Average: $27.

Analyst: “We believe Sienna’s double-digit NAV/share discount, and recent 2027E P/AFFO multiple contraction provides a compelling ‘buy the dip’ investment opportunity. We believe that Sienna is well positioned to generate above-average SP-NOI and AFFO/share growth prospects that reflect improving rent pricing power and SP-NOI margin prospects, which are underpinned by favourable underlying Canadian seniors housing demand fundamentals expected in the next few years.”

* StorageVault Canada Inc. (SVI-T) to “outperform” from “strong buy” with a $5.25 target, down from $5.75. Average: $5.86.

Analyst: “Given the recent change in the interest rate environment, we are incrementally more cautious that the potential timeline for recovery in Canadian housing transaction activity as a key Canadian storage demand driver could be pushed further out beyond our current Spring 2027 base case assumption. As such, there appears to be relatively more limited potential positive catalysts for StorageVault in a rising interest rate environment. That said, StorageVault has generated resilient mid-single-digit organic growth year-over-year in 2026 year-to-date in a tough Canadian housing market backdrop, and the recent pullback in its share price provides very compelling value given StorageVault’s substantial NAV discount.”

Mr. Sturges added: “Our Strong Buy rated stocks include Chartwell, Flagship, Primaris, and Sienna, while we highlight Outperform rated stocks, Boardwalk, Crombie, CT, Dream Industrial (DIR), Granite, Killam, RioCan, and StorageVault. Overall, our preferred Canadian REITs generally screen relatively higher for balance sheet strength metrics, and above-average AFFO/unit CAGRs (25A-28E), among other factors under consideration.”

RBC Dominion Securities analyst Andrew Wong initiated coverage of IsoEnergy Ltd. (ISO-T) with an “outperform” rating on Friday, touting its “optionality and multiple avenues to benefit from a tightening uranium market.”

“We see significant strategic value in the flagship Hurricane project, a very high-grade uranium resource in Saskatchewan near infrastructure and bordering the Cameco/Orano Dawn Lake JV,” he explained. “IsoEnergy’s ownership in newly-formed DISA Uranium could benefit from new technology to remediate/recover uranium from mine waste and improve economics for marginal uranium projects. Lastly, projects in Virginia and Australia could see value unlocks if uranium regulations become more accommodating, but timelines are uncertain.”

In a client report titled Multiple ways to win in uranium, Mr. Wong called the Toronto-based company’s Hurricane project “a tier-one strategic uranium asset with exploration upside potential.”

“Few undeveloped assets globally match its combination of grade, scale, and infrastructure proximity,” he said. “The resource is also still growing, with Hurricane’s 2026 South Trend drill program returning elevated radioactivity while Cameco’s own commentary on adjacent Dawn Lake drilling validates the broader trend. We see a compelling strategic fit for Cameco/Orano to acquire Hurricane and incorporate the resource into the Dawn Lake JV, as adding the high-grade Hurricane resource would likely improve the project’s economics, increase both companies’ resource base, and help replace depletion at Cigar Lake by 2036 (owned by Cameco 57 per centand Orano 43 per cent).

“We also see the potential for IsoEnergy to form a partnership with Cameco/Orano to develop a combined project, with Cameco/Orano as the operators given their incumbent uranium production expertise while IsoEnergy contributes the Hurricane resource and participates in the economics as a minority partner.”

In justifying his bullish view, the analyst also emphasized “regulatory shifts could unlock transformational value” for IsoEnergy.

“Wiluna (74Mlbs U3O8), acquired from Toro Energy, and Coles Hill (163Mlbs U3O8), one of the largest undeveloped uranium deposits in the U.S., both sit under active mining bans, imposed in Western Australia in 2017 and in Virginia in 1982, respectively,” said Mr. Wong. “Together these assets represent 237Mlbs of uranium that has seen minimal capital investment for decades, effectively held in suspension by policy rather than geology or economics. With uranium demand accelerating and growing support for nuclear energy, lifting of either ban could unlock substantial value as both properties could eventually be developed into significant uranium mines.

“Upcoming potential catalysts: 1) Hurricane resource update potentially in 2027 incorporating 2026 Summer drill results could materially grow the deposit and strengthen strategic optionality, 2) Positive DISA Uranium PEA in early-2027 could demonstrate HPSA-enhanced economics and de-risk the US portfolio, 3) Uranium price recovery through $100/lb accelerates DISA Uranium’s path to production in Utah, 4) Positive mining ban sentiment shifts at Wiluna or Coles Hill could help to unlock 240 Mlbs of stranded uranium.”

Mr. Wong set a target of $25 for IsoEnergy shares. The average target on the Street is $23.13.

“We apply a 1.25 times P/ NAV multiple to Hurricane, given potential resource upside and strategic optionality, 0.25 times P/NAV to Wiluna/Coles Hill given regulatory uncertainty, and include DISA Uranium at the recent transaction value,” he said. “We apply Speculative Risk given the early-stage of projects. We arrive at a consolidated P/NAV of 0.7 times, in-line with developer peers.”

National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen thinks end market trends “remain positive” for Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T) ahead of the release of its third-quarter results in the middle of next month, predicting “solid” domestic network growth and seeing supportive international conditions.

“We believe that demand for Domestic air cargo remained positive through Q3 supported by e-commerce growth while the company is also enjoying a revenue growth tailwind from scheduled charter service to LATAM and Caribbean countries that ramped early this year with opportunities for additional charter routes emerging,” he said. “We are also more optimistic Cargojet’s flying for key ACMI [Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance] customer DHL will inflect more positively into 2027. With growth capex expected to be modest this year and next, we also see solid free cash flow for the company, which will support further de-leveraging as well as the NCIB.”

In a client report released Friday, Mr. Doerksen said the Mississauga-based company’s domestic network volumes and revenue will continue to show momentum and year-over-year gains after growing 8.1 per cent in the second quarter, “supported by solid e-commerce sales.”

The analyst acknowledged Cargojet’s ACMI revenue, largely with U.S. giant DHL, has faced “tough comps in recent quarters due to a shift in flights for DHL to more shorter-haul routes (fewer block hours).”

“However, Q2 was the last quarter with a difficult comparison, and we also note that DHL has turned more optimistic on growth,” he said. “The All-in charter segment has been the main source of growth for Cargojet so far this year, and we expect that trend to continue in Q3 and Q4 as its contract serving LATAM and Caribbean markets continues to perform well with the company also seeing incremental opportunities in the region.”

With its operating momentum, Mr. Doerksen sees an opportunity for investors, calling its relative valuation “inexpensive” compared to the rest of his transportation coverage universe.

“The stock [is] currently trading at 6.2 times EV/EBITDA based on our 2026 forecast and 6.1 times on 2027, which is well below the long-term historical forward average for the stock at 9.8 times and also below the post-COVID average (since 2022) of 7.8 times,” he said. “CJT shares are also trading at a discount to the Package & Courier peer group, which trades at 7.8 times EV/EBITDA on 2026 estimates and 7.3 times on 2027.”

While he made “minor” adjustments to his forecast, Mr. Doerksen reaffirmed his “outperform” rating and $112 target for Cargojet shares. The average on the Street is $121.33.

Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Tim James reiterated his “buy” rating and $128 target in a report titled Drivers Lining Up For Cargojet.

“We published Cargojet as our Canada Best Idea on Sept 16th. Recent industry data, revenue strategies, and earnings opportunities support our bullish view and could drive upsidebeyond our target. The Cargojet valuation is historically low. The stock has very limited trade/tariff exposure and the business has pricing power and end-market dynamics that provide resiliency in the current environment,” said Mr. James.

National Bank Financial analyst Baltej Sidhu sees Anaergia Inc. (ANRG-T) possessing “a cleaner portfolio with better earnings quality” after a divestiture that “cleans up two unperforming legacy assets.”

“Anaergia has agreed to divest its Charlotte Bioenergy Facility (CBF) in North Carolina and deconsolidate its 100-per-cent interest in the Rhode Island Bioenergy Facility (RIBF),” he explained. “The transaction removes approximately $20-million of project-level debt, provides approximately $9-million of equity in the privately held buyer and is expected to generate a non-cash gain on the sale. While the equity is not near-term liquidity, it retains potential upside without further capital commitment from Anaergia.”

“We view the transaction positively. The divestiture removes loss-making, non-core BOO [Build, Own, and Operate] assets, reduces project-level leverage and further sharpens Anaergia’s focus on its higher-quality, scalable Capital Sales/O&M platform. Both facilities had become a material margin drag, contributing approximately 300 bps of consolidated margin pressure in Q2/26. RIBF continued to operate below capacity amid feedstock and operating challenges, while CBF was idled and, in our view, would have required approximately $50-million of incremental capex to restart. Reflecting the divestiture, we reduce FY26E revenue modestly to $282.5-million (was $285.1-million), driven by lower BOO revenue, but raise adj. EBITDA to $12.3-million (was $11.0-million), lifting our EBITDA margin to 4.4 per cent (up 50 basis points). The outcome is a cleaner portfolio with improved earnings quality despite the modest revenue reduction.”

Mr. Sidhu also applauded a separate move from the Burlington, Ont.-based company, which converts organic waste into renewable natural gas, fertilizer, and clean water, that helped simplify its ownership structure.

“Marny and founder Andrew Benedek extended Marny’s option to acquire up to 33.0 million shares from Mr. Benedek at $3.00/sh, representing approximately 20 per cent of shares outstanding, to the earlier of five business days following Anaergia’s Q3 filing and November 20,” he said. “No shares have been purchased to date. If fully exercised, Marny’s ownership would rise from 60 per cent to 80 per cent, while Mr. Benedek would effectively exit.

“We view a potential exercise as constructive as it would simplify the ownership structure, remove the perceived founder-related share overhang and create a clearer post-Q3 catalyst for the stock.”

After he “fine-tuned” his estimates, Mr. Sidhu reiterated an “outperform” rating and $5 target for Anaergia shares. The average is $5.16.

“ANRG trades at 1.2 times 2027 estimated EV/Sales, below RNG infrastructure developers at 2.0 times and environmental technology peers at 8.3 times, despite its strong projected growth profile and ROIC,” he said. “We view our 3.0 times target multiple as conservative, particularly as execution against backlog improves, recurring O&M revenue builds, and the company continues to high-grade its portfolio. The divestiture of CBF and RIBF is a further step in that direction reflecting sustained margin improvement, clearer earnings visibility and continued portfolio optimization that should support meaningful multiple expansion from current levels.”

TD Cowen analyst Cherilyn Radbourne said recent investor meetings with Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM-N, BAM-T) reinforced her view of “durable/diversified earnings growth.”

“BAM offers a diversified, resilient earnings profile and credible path to 18-per-cent DE [distributable earnings] growth through 2031, supported by FBC [fee-bearing capital] growth, margin expansion and emerging carry,” she said. “Private wealth, U.S. 401(k) access and partner-manager stakes offer potential upside to 20 per cent, while inflation-linked infrastructure, energy scarcity, and opportunistic credit help to cushion macro risk.”

In a client note, Ms. Radbourne emphasized Brookfield Asset now possesses “five scaled platforms, none more than 1/3 of fee revenue, supporting durable, diversified earnings growth across the cycle.”

“Infrastructure and energy are well-positioned for resilience to inflation-driven interest rate pressure: most infrastructure revenues are inflation-indexed, and scarcity of energy supply vs. increased demand offers strong inflation pass-through/pricing power,” she added. “RE is interest-rate sensitive, but new construction has been virtually non-existent in some sectors, which provides pricing power: in Q2/26, BN’s on-B/S RE portfolio realized a spread of 19 per cent in office/12 per cent in retail on new vs. expiring leases. PE is pro-cyclical, but BAM’s focus on essential industrial businesses/services mutes that, and the Oaktree opportunistic credit franchise is inherently countercyclical.

“BAM has guided to an 18-per-cent DE CAGR (2026-2031) and sees upside to 20 per cent. The base case is underpinned by 14 per cent growth in FBC, 500 basis points plus of FRE [fee-related earnings] margin expansion, and carry in 2030+. Flagship funds remain core (mid-single-digits CAGR) and the flagships winding up are very small vs. the latest vintages, which limits FBC churn for 10+ years. The flagships anchor many complementary strategies across the risk/return spectrum, which should grow at an low-double-digits CAGR. And finally, BAM’s insurance float should compound at 20 per cent, driven largely by BWS (owned by BN, which holds the insurance liabilities), although BAM has also won SMAs from third party insurance companies”

She has a “buy” rating and US$70 target for its shares. The average is US$58.11.

“Upside to 18 per cent comes from 1) private wealth; 2) access to 401(k)s; 3) carry; and 4) partner managers,” she added. “BAM has $15-billion in private wealth (low-single-digits of FBC) and projects $75-billion by 2031 (5 times increase). Investor concern regarding redemptions from private credit is diminishing as they moderate, and importantly, the Oaktree Strategic Credit Fund outperformed vs. peers. BAM sizes the U.S. defined contribution market as a $14-trillon opportunity, which is well-suited to long-duration real assets and expects a 15-per-cent market share for alternatives vs. low-single-digits today. BAM has attractive options to increase its partner manager stakes over time, which could add $350-million to 2031 FRE (10 per cent of TTM [trailing 12 month] FRE).”

In other analyst actions:

* ATB Cormark’s MacMurray Whale downgraded Sigma Lithium Corp. (SGML-Q, SGML-X) to “sector perform” from “outperform” with a US$13 target, down from US$19.50 and below the US$19.75 average on the Street.

“The record Q2/26 results released last week show strong operational leverage at Grota do Cirilo in Brazil. However, the ongoing suspension that commenced in July as SGML hashes out a ‘Termo de Ajuste de Conduta’ or TAC Agreement with the state of Minas Gerais means the timing of the ramp in H2/26 is uncertain, though expected to be imminent,” said Mr. Whale.

“With investors focused on near-term growth from producers, we have included Phase 2 through a NAV multiple. We expect the risk concerning the ongoing disputes associated with the communities in the region will keep new investors on the sideline. Despite being the lowest cost producer, we have moved our recommendation to Sector Perform from Outperform.”

* Ventum Financial’s Surya Sankarasubramanian initiated coverage of American Tungsten Corp. (TUNG-X) with a “buy” rating an $3 target. The average is $5.

“American Tungsten is a tungsten exploration and development company advancing the brownfield Ima Mine project in Idaho. As American Tungsten continues to steadily de-risk the Ima Mine project towards production in a record-high tungsten price environment, with visible catalysts as early as Q4/26, investors now have the opportunity to benefit from a series of stock price re-rates tied to achieving milestones. This high-beta play on the tungsten price also has plenty of upside from by-products and resource growth,” he said.

* Stifel’s Justin Keywood initiated coverage of Vancouver’s Wellstar Technologies Corp. (WSTR-X), which began trading on the TSX Venture Exchange on Thursday, with a “buy” rating and $10 target.

“WELLSTAR is a collection of SaaS/AI assets ‘The Tech-Stack’, accumulated under parent company WELL Health (WELL) with #1 market share empowering physician clinics and making the Canadian healthcare system more efficient,” said Mr. Keywood. “Approximately 1/3 each of WELLSTAR is Electronic Medical Records (EMR), referral network technology (OceanMD) and billing/practice management tools. Our thesis and path to $1-billion market cap is predicated on RULE-OF-40 status maintained, driven by OceanMD, supported by favourable customer feedback, including NeuPath (largest pain provider network), monetization of a rich Health data pool and strategic, material M&A. WELLSTAR holds #3 Canada-wide EMR share (approximately 15 per cent), below #2 (Accuro by Loblaw), 25 per cent and #1 TELUS, 45 per cent, where we see M&A potential and could create a ‘Flywheel’ value effect. We initiate with a Buy rating and C$10.00 target ($775-million implied market cap), assuming more conservative M&A impact, with a refreshed balance sheet ($99-million cash, zero debt) to support rising-STAR potential.”

* Acumen Capital’s Nick Corcoran raised his target for Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T) to $48 from $42 with a “buy” rating in response to being awarded a project to provide 450MW of behind-the-meter natural gas-fired power gen units for a large North American data centre developer. Other changes include: ATB Cormark’s Tim Monachello to $52 from $47 with an “outperform” rating and Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $49 from $48 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $45.06.

“The power gen award removed an overhang on the stock as the pipeline for power gen has been growing with no firm orders,” Mr. Corcoran said. “We continue to believe EFX will re-rate from an OFS to an industrial on the back of significant tailwinds from natural gas production (LNG) and power generation for data centers.”

* Scotia’s Kevin Fisk increased his Ovintiv Inc. (OVV-N, OVV-T) target to US$75 from US$70 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is US$74.

“We recently hosted investor meetings with OVV’s senior management. The discussions centered on three key themes: 1) OVV’s culture of stacked innovation and how this has led to industry leading oil productivity and reduced well costs; 2) the company’s counter-cyclical capital allocation policy, which targets shareholder returns of over 60 per cent of free cash flow in 2026; and 3) OVV’s deep inventory of premium drilling locations and how the company has been adding locations at attractive valuations,” said Mr. Fisk. “We continue to highlight OVV as our top pick, due to its attractive valuation, strong operational execution, and exposure to growing demand for Canadian condensate. Further, OVV’s upcoming inclusion in the TSX Composite could boost its Canadian institutional ownership which has decreased from 50 per cent in 2014 to roughly 5 per cent currently. We have increased our NAVPS estimate to reflect OVV’s strong well performance and raised our target price.”