The monthly Outlook for Principal Field Crops report from Agriculture Canada doesn’t usually generate a lot of media attention, but the Sept. 25 edition has a number of interesting observations and predictions.
The report runs through supply and demand estimates along with some of the geopolitical factors and presents a prediction for the average price over the entire crop year. From one reporting month to the next, those price estimates shift.
The Sept. 25 report is 15 pages long, but here are some of the highlights.
On durum, the price estimate for No. 1 grade with 13 per cent protein has increased from last month, but only by $10 per tonne.
Harvest delays and grading concerns in durum have recently increased prices higher for top-quality product, but Agriculture Canada doesn’t apparently think a significant price premium will be maintained. Its average price for durum is actually a couple dollars per tonne less than the average price paid to growers last year.
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The average price for No. 1 CWRS wheat is also up by $10 a tonne in this most recent report, and it’s $41 a tonne higher than last year’s average price.
Spring wheat is predicted to maintain a strong price premium over durum when it’s usually the other way around.
On barley, the report notes that the Lethbridge feed barley price in the last crop year approached the lowest level in six years. Exports were strong last year and are expected to drop in this crop year.
However, due to primarily stronger U.S. corn prices, the price prediction for feed barley in this crop year has increased by $10 a tonne compared to last month and is more than $20 per tonne above last year’s average.
A notable decline is predicted in Canadian oat production this year. The prediction for this year’s oat price is up by $15 a tonne compared to last month and is more than $20 a tonne higher than last year.
The biggest move month over month is on canola, where the Agriculture Canada analysis has increased this crop year’s predicted price by a whopping $55 a tonne. The average price is expected to exceed last year’s by more than $60.
Flax, on the other hand, doesn’t look so rosy.
This crop year’s average price prediction has been reduced by $30 a tonne compared to last month. That’s down $25, or four per cent, from last year and down 18 per cent from the five-year average.
For peas and lentils, the analysis lumps all classes of each together, and on both crops, prices for this crop year are the same as last month. On peas, this crop year is $10 a tonne above last year, and on lentils, this crop year is predicted to be $20 a tonne higher.
The analysis on chickpeas is less favourable. Exports are expected to be lower, with Canadian and world supply larger. This year’s predicted average price is down $50 a tonne from last month and is $70 a tonne lower than 2025-26.
On mustard, carry-out stocks are expected to be higher than the previous year. The price forecast has dropped $35 a tonne from last month and is $50 per tonne lower than last crop year.
For canaryseed, burdensome carry-out stocks are expected. The price prediction has dropped by $10 a tonne compared to last month and is also $10 a tonne lower than last crop year.
Overall, the report re-enforces canola as the shining star. My prediction is that canola acreage next spring will be record large.