B.C. Conservatives, NDP in tight election race, polling suggests
Published 4:30 pm Friday, October 2, 2026
Recent polling indicates a tight race between the B.C. Conservatives and the B.C. NDP three weeks ahead of the provincial election, while suggesting marginal support for the BC Greens, CentreBC and OneBC.
A survey of recent polling paints a picture of a two-horse race, with the Conservatives and NDP within a few percentage points of one another, and different polls indicating a different marginal frontrunner.
An online poll conducted by Innovative Research Group from Sept. 25 to 28 found 41 per cent of decided voters would support the NDP, and 39 per cent would support the Conservatives. It should be noted that because this online survey was not a random probability-based sample, it cannot be assigned a margin of error.
The online poll found that 57 per cent believe it is time for a change in the province, yet 37 per cent maintain that the NDP is the best party to form government. Innovative Research cited Conservative readiness as a significant hurdle, with 52 per cent agreeing that turmoil in the party indicates the Conservatives are unable to run government. This includes 42 per cent who were unaligned and 22 per cent who identified as Conservative.
While the Innovative Research poll indicates a potentially narrow lead for the NDP, two other previously conducted polls had the Conservatives slightly ahead.
Leger conducted a poll with a middle field date of Sept. 26, with data selected from random respondents via an online panel with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. This poll put the Conservatives ahead of the NDP by three percentage points, with 39 per cent support among decided voters.
Similar to Innovative Research’s indicators of the number of British Columbians who believe it’s time for a change, Leger’s poll found that 58 per cent in the province feel B.C. is on the wrong track. It’s the highest figure in Leger’s tracking since September 2023.
Leger also found that 57 per cent disapprove of the NDP’s calling of a snap election. Meanwhile, the Innovative Research poll found 21 per cent of respondents report they are less likely to vote NDP because of the election call. Together, the polling suggests a cynical view of NDP Premier David Eby’s snap election decision.
Only 19 per cent of respondents to the Leger survey said the NDP has done a good job and should be re-elected.
A telephone survey of 1,000 British Columbians by Liaison Strategies from Sept. 26 to 27 puts the Conservatives ahead of the NDP by one percentage point, with 40 per cent of decided and leaning voters giving the party their early support. Like the Leger poll, this poll has a margin of error of 3.1 per cent, meaning support for the Conservatives could be anywhere from about 37 per cent to 43 per cent according to the poll.
Leger’s survey pegged the BC Greens at 13 per cent of the vote, while both OneBC and Centre BC had a five per cent vote share in the survey.