Timberland PRO 200
Location: Avondale, Arizona
Course: Phoenix Raceway
Format: Oval
Length: 1 mile
Laps: 200
NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Race Preview
Corey Day took home his second consecutive win last weekend at Charlotte, putting him on the same track as his Cup Series counterpart Chase Briscoe. Day took the win in impressive fashion, out-dueling both Justin Allgaier and Jesse Love in the final 10 laps. He has now surged to third in The Chase, only seven points behind Sheldon Creed. With Justin Allgaier in fourth and only 15 points off the lead, we’ll have a compelling final four races of the season. Next up is Phoenix on Saturday night.
Key Stats at Phoenix RacewayNumber of Races: 49Winners from Pole: 11Winners from Top 5: 38Winners from Top 10: 43Previous Winners at Phoenix Raceway
2026 spring – Justin Allgaier
2025 fall – Jesse Love
2025 spring – Aric Almirola
2024 fall- Riley Herbst
2024 spring- Chandler Smith
2023 fall- Cole Custer
2023 spring – Sammy Smith
2022 fall- Ty Gibbs
2022 spring- Noah Gragson
2021 fall- Daniel Hemric
2021 spring – Austin Cindric
Phoenix has been the host of the Championship race for the last several years, but that instead belongs to Homestead this season. Nevertheless, Phoenix will host a compelling event, with the number of race weekends remaining ticking down. Qualifying has historically been important, though things have opened up a bit in the past few races at the Raceway, with Allgaier winning from 17th this spring and none of the last three winners starting inside the top five.
This also isn’t a track where we’ve seen one driver dominate, with no repeat winners in the last 10 races. There has also been plenty of parity among manufacturers, so there aren’t many macro trends to look to when building DFS lineups or betting cards.
NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Values for the Timberland PRO 200
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Justin Allgaier – $13,000
Jesse Love – $11,500
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Carson Kvapil – $10,500
Corey Day – $10,000
Sheldon Creed – $9,800
Sam Mayer – $8,800
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Taylor Gray – $8,500
Brandon Jones – $8,300
Rajah Caruth – $8,000
Ryan Sieg – $7,800
William Sawalich – $7,500
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Anthony Alfredo – $7,000
Dean Thompson– $6,600
Brennan Poole – $6,500
Optimal DraftKings Lineup for the Timberland PRO 200
Jesse Love – $11,500
Sam Mayer – $8,800
Taylor Gray – $8,500
William Sawalich – $7,500
Anthony Alfredo – $7,000
Brennan Poole – $6,500
Love and Allgaier are comparable in their results at Phoenix and both are good options to build through. Each has regularly finished inside the top five, but Love is the better value option due to his price. That duo stands above the rest, but Tier 2 is also full of strong options.
Day doesn’t necessarily have the track record at Phoenix, but his pace is clear after the last two weekends. Creed and Mayer are arguably Tier 1 options, but they are priced very reasonably. An alternative to Allgaier and Love is building through two drivers in Tier 2. Mayer has finished seventh and fifth in his last two races at Phoenix, and he qualified eighth in the race prior to that. Put another way, he’s had consistent speed. Creed is his typical solid self, finishing inside the top 10 in six of his last seven races at the raceway.
Gray, Sawalich and Caruth have the chance to be the key values. Gray has shown elite speed over one lap at Phoenix. If he can string together some consistency, he’s a darkhorse potential race winner. Sawalich is similar. In three races, he’s qualified sixth and first, but the finishes also haven’t come. Finally, Caruth has spent most of his three races at Phoenix running inside the top 15, which is solid value for his price.
Alfredo and Poole have been key values this season and are some of the better potential punt options.
Best Bets for the Timberland PRO 200
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 AM ET Saturday
Race Winner – Jesse Love (+450), Taylor Gray (+1500)
Top-Five Finisher- Jesse Love (-165), Sheldon Creed (+100), Taylor Gray (+200)
Head-to-Head Matchups
Brandon Jones (-120) vs. Sammy Smith (-110)
Brent Crews (-135) vs. Sam Mayer (+100)
Jesse Love (-120) vs. Carson Kvapil (-110)
Much like was discussed in the DFS section, Allgaier and Love are the favorites to win the race and in all other race lines. Also like DFS, Love checks in at the better price and is the top option. Racing is a high-variance sport, but Creed is the closest possible “safe” driver.
Jones is one driver not mentioned in the DFS section that should be in strong consideration in both contexts. He finished fourth in last year’s fall race at Phoenix, and he started the spring race in third. He’s also worth considering as a top-five finisher (+225), though that is more of a longshot bet.
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The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it’s possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Dan Marcus plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: marcusd91
DraftKings: dmarcus87.