Drivers in Toronto and parts of southern Ontario could see gas prices climb again during the week of Oct. 19, according to an independent gas-price forecasting model.

The prediction comes after regular gas prices in the Greater Toronto Area increased two cents per litre on Sunday, Oct. 18.

Gas Wizard, which publishes forecasts based on analysis from Canadians for Affordable Energy president Dan McTeague, put regular gas at 177.9 cents per litre in Toronto, Mississauga and the GTA on Sunday.

That was up from 175.9 cents per litre on Saturday, Oct. 17, when prices had fallen four cents per litre.

Looking ahead, CheapGasToronto.ca’s independent forecasting model is pointing to higher prices over the next few days.

Based on the latest available forecast, the outlook is:

Sunday, Oct. 18: 177.9 cents per litre
Monday, Oct. 19: Prices could begin moving higher
Tuesday, Oct. 20: Prices could be approximately four cents per litre higher than current levels

The Tuesday figure is a projection, not a confirmed pump price. Gas Wizard and Canadians for Affordable Energy have not confirmed a four-cent increase for Tuesday.

CheapGasToronto.ca’s model uses several indicators, including Toronto’s recent gasoline price trends, historical weekly pricing patterns, movements in West Texas Intermediate crude oil and Ontario wholesale gasoline prices.

The website cautions that its prediction is an estimate rather than a guarantee and that market conditions can change.

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Gas prices have already fluctuated significantly in recent days. Gas Wizard data shows regular gas at 181.9 cents per litre on Oct. 14 before falling to 178.9 cents on Oct. 15. Prices increased to 179.9 cents on Oct. 16, dropped to 175.9 cents on Oct. 17 and climbed to 177.9 cents on Oct. 18.

Despite the latest increase, GTA gas prices remain below where they were one week ago. Gas Wizard lists regular gas at 181.9 cents per litre on Oct. 11, compared with 177.9 cents per litre on Oct. 18.

Whether the predicted increase materializes should become clearer as updated daily forecasts and wholesale gasoline pricing information become available.


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