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With less than a week to go until election day, a new opinion survey has incumbent Mark Sutcliffe with a single-digit lead over three-term city councillor Jeff Leiper in the race for mayor, with the rest of the field far behind.
The Quorus Consulting Group survey released Monday evening put Sutcliffe at 28 per cent among all respondents. Leiper was at 24 per cent, followed by Neil Saravanamuttoo at seven per cent and Alex Lawson at four per cent.
A breakdown of survey results from Quorus Consulting Group showing results from all voters, including those who did not express a preference. (CBC News)
But one-third of all respondents said they either don’t know, won’t vote or prefer not to say. Among voters who expressed a preference, the gap between the two leading candidates is seven points.
On that score, Sutcliffe is at 42 per cent and Leiper is at 35 per cent, with Saravanamuttoo at 10 and Lawson at seven. Those totals include the 10 per cent of respondents who say they have already voted in advance polls.
“The race is much closer than it was, but Sutcliffe still enjoys a comfortable lead,” said a summary of the results published by Quorus.
The results of the Quorus Consulting Group survey when counting only voters who expressed a preference for a candidate. (CBC)
The online survey was conducted from Oct. 8-15. It is based on the opinions of 807 Ottawa residents randomly selected from an online panel.
Four per cent of all respondents said they would support a candidate other than the four leading contenders, while the figure was six per cent for those who expressed a preference. There are 14 people running to be mayor of Ottawa in total.
Quorus is a market research firm that has done work for the federal government, including Elections Canada, and is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.
Executive vice-president Doug Anderson said the survey is not affiliated with and was not commissioned by any of the campaigns for the candidates in the election, making it one of the few independent polls released during the 2026 election cycle.
Other polls and surveys have been released during the campaign, including some affiliated with candidates or with smaller sample sizes, but CBC News only reports on those that meet standards for reliability, sample size and independence.
The latest Quorus results suggest a tighter race between the two leaders than previously seen in earlier polls and surveys, including a smaller Quorus survey from June.
“People have gotten more engaged and the big lead that Mark Sutcliffe had has shrunk considerably,” said Anderson. “At the same time, it’s still a big enough lead that one would expect that he would be re-elected.”
Top issues
Quorus also asked questions on the top issues in the campaign for respondents who say they may or will vote. Twenty per cent picked housing, affordability and the cost of living as the issue driving their voting decision — more than any other issue.
That was followed by transit at 15 per cent, then taxes, budgets and fiscal management at 12 per cent, competence, leadership and integrity at 11 per cent and roads, infrastructure and traffic at 10 per cent. Crime, public safety and policing were far behind at just three per cent.
Quorus designed, sponsored and conducted the poll. The respondents were all members of a Leger’s opt-in panel. While such a survey does not have a margin of error, a comparable random sample poll of the same size would have a margin of error plus or minus 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
The results were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample reflected the city’s actual population distribution on factors like gender and age.
Anderson said he worked at the same company as Leiper while they were both at Decima Research in separate departments more than two decades ago, but said they are only acquaintances.
He is also an acquaintance of Alex Lawson’s deputy campaign manager, Laura Kurkimaki, due to working at Earnscliffe at the same time, and said he also knows Sutcliffe and Saravanamuttoo.