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As Monday’s municipal election looms closer, a new poll suggests Bonnie Crombie has taken a sizeable lead over opponents Carolyn Parrish, Alvin Tedjo and Dipika Damerla in Mississauga’s mayoral race.
Support for the city’s former mayor Crombie has surged to 35 per cent among decided and leaning voters, followed by Tedjo at 31 per cent and the incumbent Parrish with 28 per cent, according to a Liaison Strategies Mississauga Tracker survey released Thursday.
Damerla is polling at four per cent, while two per cent say they would vote for another candidate.
The latest numbers point to a very tight race, said David Valentin, a principal at Liaison Strategies.
“It really tells me that voters are pretty conflicted, they’re going in a whole bunch of different directions,” he said.
“It also tells me that the race is still not over. Election day is going to matter and it’s so tight that if the right turnout conditions happen, any of the three could become mayor on Monday.”
Campaign has shifted voters’ minds, expert says
Valentin notes Damerla has seen the biggest drop in the polls, falling from 11 per cent in the last survey, released Oct. 5. Crombie and Tedjo have each gained five points since then, and Parrish is down one point.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Mississauga residents from Oct. 19 to Oct. 20, using interactive voice recording (IVR) technology. Results were weighted by age, gender and ethnicity to match 2021 census targets.
Valentin said the campaign has definitely shifted voter minds, with Damerla losing support following her “prosecution,” as he put it, of fellow Coun. Tedjo’s track record of supporting police budget increases, during the first Mississauga mayoral debate on Sept. 25.
It’s a similar case with voters seeing what Valentin describes as a “mean streak” in Parrish with the jabs she has taken against Crombie, namely calling her a “blond bombshell” during a debate moderated by CityNews on Oct. 1.
Parrish later told CBC Peel she regretted making the statement.
WATCH | Why Carolyn Parrish regrets calling ‘blonde bombshell’ remark against Bonnie Crombie:
Mississauga’s incumbent mayor regrets calling predecessor Crombie a ‘blond bombshell’
In an exclusive interview with CBC Peel, Mississauga’s incumbent Mayor Carolyn Parrish says she regrets calling mayoral candidate Bonnie Crombie a “blond bombshell” during a debate moderated by CityNews on Oct. 1
Valentin said the polls have been most favourable to Tedjo, who has made significant gains since the summer.
Myer Siemiatycki, a professor emeritus of politics and public administration at Toronto Metropolitan University, said this is a close three-way race and because candidates are trailing so close together, any of them could become mayor come Monday.
This municipal election is a unique one because there are two incumbents, the current and former mayor, running for the job, said Valentin.
“Usually the incumbent represents stability, steady leadership. In this case, you can make the argument that both [Crombie and Parrish] reflect that because there’s not a question of, ‘Can Crombie do the job as mayor?’ The residents know because she’s done it.”
‘A new mark’ for advance voter turnout
The numbers come as Mississauga reports that more than 44,000 voters have already cast their ballots, “setting a new mark for advance voting turnout”, the city said in a release.
The city says this marks a 57 per cent increase in advance voter turnout compared to the 2022 municipal election, where just over 28,000 people voted in advance of election day.
Siemiatycki believes the higher early turnout is because of how hotly contested Mississauga’s election has been.
“It’s been quite a heated campaign, generating a fair amount of sparks and interest. I think there’s a reasonable prospect that the strong increase in advanced polling numbers is a reflection of more people being engaged in the election process,” he said.
Myer Siemiatycki is a professor emeritus of politics and public administration at Toronto Metropolitan University. (Toronto Metropolitan University)
Brampton has also seen a rise in early voter turnout, reporting an eight per cent surge with nearly 25,000 residents who have already voted.
“My hunch would be not to expect a significant higher prospective voter turnout in Brampton this election compared to the last election and that reflects the fact that it hasn’t been as contested, or controversial of an election as what is playing out in Mississauga,” said Siemiatycki.
However, both Siemiatycki and Valentin caution against relying on advance voter turnout numbers because they might not necessarily result in a higher overall voting turnout.
Often residents choose the advanced voting option because it spans a few days and gives them more flexibility, Siemiatycki said, but those numbers don’t indicate how many voters will show up on election day.