Two more polls this week suggest the mayoral race in Mississauga has turned into a three-candidate contest as voters prepare to cast their ballots on Monday.

Results from a new Liaison Strategies Mississauga Tracker survey released Thursday morning show former mayor Bonnie Crombie leading with 35 per cent among decided and leaning voters, followed by city councillor Alvin Tedjo at 31 per cent and the incumbent, Mayor Carolyn Parrish, at 28 per cent. City councillor Dipika Damerla received four per cent, while two per cent would choose someone else.

Liaison Strategies, a national public opinion research firm, surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Mississauga residents from Oct. 19-20, using Interactive Voice Recording technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialing across landline and cellular networks.

The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and is higher for subsamples, including decided and leaning voters, the pollster said.

Numbers have changed in past couple of months

David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said the numbers have changed since the pollster’s previous survey conducted in early October.

“Crombie and Tedjo have each gained five points since our Oct. 5 release. Parrish is down one point, while Damerla has fallen from 11 per cent to four per cent,” Valentin said. “Crombie still leads Tedjo by four points, but Tedjo is now ahead of the incumbent. Both challengers have made gains without either pulling away from the other.”

Valentin also noted that Tedjo, Ward 2 councillor in Mississauga, has made big gains since an August survey of the city’s mayoral race.

“Tedjo was at 12 per cent in August. He is now at 31 per cent. That is a very different campaign from the one we were looking at two months ago, when Crombie and Parrish were tied at 35 per cent. Crombie has recovered her August share, while Parrish has not.”

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INSAUGA Canada poll puts Parrish ahead

Meanwhile, an original INSAUGA Canada head-to-head poll released on Wednesday focused solely on the incumbent, Parrish, and her predecessor, Crombie. Among readers who weighed in, the choice was Parrish.

The poll asked readers: Who has your vote for Mississauga mayor?

Two choices were provided to respondents — the current mayor and former mayor.

More than 1,600 votes were cast in the online poll, with 983 respondents (59.9 per cent) choosing Parrish, compared with 658 votes (40.1 per cent) for Crombie.

A total of 1,641 votes were cast.

Gender results shed some light on poll

Regarding the latest Liaison Strategies survey, the pollster noted that the gender results “help explain why Crombie has a lead but not much breathing room. Among decided and leaning men, she has 41 per cent, compared with 29 per cent for Tedjo and 26 per cent for Parrish.

“Among women, the three are much closer: Tedjo has 33 per cent, Crombie 30 per cent and Parrish 29 per cent.”

An August Liaison poll showed Parrish and Crombie tied at 35 per cent, Damerla with 18 per cent and Tedjo with 12 per cent at that time.

Of the latest survey results, Valentin further noted that, “Parrish’s disapproval has fallen from 42 per cent to 37 per cent, but her approval has barely changed, moving from 38 per cent to 37 per cent. The share unsure has risen from 20 per cent to 25 per cent. Fewer residents disapproving is better for her than the alternative, but it has not come with more approval or a higher vote share.

“The city’s mood remains difficult for the incumbent,” Valentin continued. “Forty-six per cent say Mississauga is moving in the wrong direction, compared with 30 per cent who say the right direction and 24 per cent who are unsure. That is somewhat better than the 48 per cent wrong direction and 28 per cent right direction in our previous survey, but negative views still outnumber positive ones.”

Liaison summed up the mayoral race, as of today, by suggesting “Crombie has the advantage, Tedjo has continued to build support and Parrish remains close enough that neither challenger can afford to ignore her.”

Other polls point to a three-person race for mayor

Poll results released on Thursday afternoon by Toronto-based Pallas Data also indicate a three-way race for the mayor’s seat in Mississauga.

However, that poll puts Parrish in front with 30 per cent (down four from previous Pallas poll), Crombie in second at 28 per cent (up three from previous poll) and Tedjo a close third at 27 per cent (up six from previous poll). Damerla dropped to seven per cent (down seven from previous poll).

“It’s been a long time since I’ve seen results this close with the election only four days away,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Pallas Data founder and CEO, in releasing the results. “It’s a dead heat with four days to go and this will be settled by which team has the better get-out-the-vote operation.”

Pallas Data’s previous mayoral poll in early October had Parrish with a nine-point lead over Crombie.

The pollster said on Thursday the percentage of undecided Mississauga voters has dropped to 16 per cent compared to 28 per cent in early October.

Pallas Data said its latest survey was conducted Oct. 20-21 among a sample of 508 eligible Mississauga voters. It added the margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level.

Results of a poll conducted by Toronto-based Mainstreet Research released on Monday gave Crombie the nod from 33.6 per cent of respondents, ahead of Tedjo, who garnered 28.4 per cent.

Parrish placed third in the poll, with 26.2 per cent, while Damerla fell to 4.5 per cent.

The remaining 7.3 per cent of respondents said they’d vote for someone else.

That survey did not include undecided voters, the pollster said.

Voters head to the polls on Oct. 26

Voters in Mississauga and across Ontario will cast their ballots in the municipal election on Monday, Oct. 26.

With fierce rivals Parrish and her predecessor Crombie going head to head, political observers have pegged the Mississauga mayoral race as among the most interesting and potentially exciting anywhere in Ontario.

Crombie left the Mississauga mayor’s post in early 2024 after 10 years to lead the Ontario Liberals and take a shot at unseating Ontario Premier Doug Ford.

Parrish subsequently won a mayoral byelection in June 2024, defeating, among others, Tedjo, Damerla and Ward 1 Coun. Stephen Dasko.

The two highest-profile mayoral candidates have gone head-to-head in a heated municipal election campaign prior to 2026, with Crombie defeating Parrish (2,479 votes to 2,239 votes) in a September 2011 byelection for the Ward 5 council seat.

Campaign watchers in Mississauga — and some polls/surveys — have noted recently that Tedjo appears to have garnered additional support and that the contest could turn out to be a close three-way race on election night.

In total, 14 candidates are vying to become mayor of Mississauga.

The other 10 candidates are:

David Shaw — ran in both the 2024 mayoral byelection and 2022 municipal election for mayor. Registered to run May 1
Mike Matulewicz — ran in the 2024 mayoral byelection. Registered to run May 5
Amjad Jilani — registered to run July 14
Frank Fang — ran in the 2024 mayoral byelection and competed for the Ward 9 council seat in the 2022 municipal election. Registered to run July 15
Fadi Naami — registered to run July 20
Karam Ahmed — registered to run Aug. 20
Aamir Bhatti — registered to run Aug. 21
Gord Elliott — registered to run Aug. 21
Mohsin Khan — registered to run Aug. 18
Ana Luisa Vasquez De Espinal — registered to run Aug. 11

For more information on who’s running and the election in general, visit the city’s election page online.

(Cover photo: City of Mississauga)

— Editor’s note: Story has been updated from Thursday morning to include Pallas Data poll results that were released on Thursday afternoon.


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