For all of the unknowns in this MLB offseason, the clearest certainty is that a colossal contract (very possibly a record-setting one) is coming Tarik Skubal’s way.
He isn’t necessarily a perfect free agent, what with his 30th birthday fast approaching and the fact he had to navigate around elbow surgery this season. That said, his previous two campaigns featured Cy Young awards, and this one showed similar dominance (2.51 FIP this year; 2.45 and 2.49 in 2025 and 2024, respectively).
He’ll send this market in a frenzy. Every big-spender—starting with the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets—will at least weigh making a bid, and surprise suitors could surface, too. That said, cold water is already getting dumped on the idea of Skubal heading back to the Detroit Tigers.
“It’s probably too early to handicap this as Mets versus Dodgers,” ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez wrote. “… Others will surely step up—though it seems highly unlikely that the Tigers, who never made an extension offer Skubal’s side deemed competitive, will be among them.”
While that would have been a fun way for this story to end, it never felt too feasible. Because, in all likelihood, it probably isn’t too early to consider this a two-team race between New York and L.A.
Prediction: Skubal re-signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers.