From the time this fight was announced, I have had this feeling that this is a mismatch. Below is an attempt to see I can justify my “feelings” with something real to back it or throw away that argument.
Long Range
Gane has some of the best footwork and long-range attack; if not the best in the game at HW. His range of kicks, coupled with a strong jab that he uses both as a power jab to step in and follow up with the power hand, and as a piston jab while moving backwards away from counters.
While the official stats may list Gane as orthodox, we can’t forget how he sets up his southpaw high kick through repeated kicks to the body, all while in the southpaw position. He can deliver power from both stances!
So how does Hokit even get in? Hokit is shorter, with a significant reach disadvantage. Any damage he can inflict on the feet is at close range, and his best chance of a finish lies on the ground; which also needs Josh to close range enough to shoot for takedowns.
I just do not see any route for Hokit to even get in to shoot takedowns!!!
Boxing Range
If we assume somehow Hokit is able to get into range where his hands can touch Gane, that means he is in range for the clinch.
Hokit usually has the advantage in the clinch against most opponents, but this is one fight where I believe Gane has him dominated. Gane is not just taller and bigger, but in my opinion the stronger MMA grappler in the clinch. He can be nasty with the Thai plum and truly hurt Hokit in the clinch, whereas punching/elbowing upwards from the clinch means Hokit won’t have much to offer in terms of damage-inducing blows.
If he can get in range, then Hokit needs to use his chain wrestling to get the fight to the ground. It will not be easy.
Can Gane get the takedown from the clinch? Yes!!
Hokit still needs the takedown!!
Ground Game
If we assume somehow Hokit can get this fight to the ground with him on top, then the game changes. While Gane has some jiu-jitsu, I am not sure he has the skills to sweep and get back up from a lifelong wrestler like Hokit. If Hokit gets to top position, the back, or any other form of relatively dominant position on the ground, then he can ride him, GnP him, and maybe find the finish.
Also, Gane does make strange decisions on the ground which have cost him (vs Francis). But I see that as an anomaly that came out of an inexperienced Gane, and I think he is a lot more composed and confident in his grappling now.
But overall, this is the one place where I give Hokit the edge.
Cardio & Pace
Hokit has cardio and pace. He has been able to effectively utilize that to break down opponents, but Gane is one of the rare breed at HW who can match Hokit on cardio, and I don’t see him gassing out even if it involves a lot of grappling. Hokit could finish him by hurting him or submitting him, but I don’t see Gane as a guy who is going to lose because he got too exhausted.
Even stevens!!
Speed
While Hokit has had the speed advantage over his HW opponents to date; Gane is as fast as Hokit, and the speed advantage (whatever little Hokit does have) will need to be used to smartly get into range, without eating the jabs or kicks which are a staple of Gane’s offense (and defense).
Even stevens!!
My Personal Opinion About Hokit
I have enjoyed watching Hokit’s rise up the HW ladder. He brings the action and does not get tired. I don’t need anything more from a fighter at HW. Hokit also brings real grappling skills to the table which are at a premium in the HW division!!
For the first time ever, a fighter’s act outside the cage has actually made me smile!!! And he is American. I want an American HW champ!!! Not to mention the dude is active (but that changes when dudes become champ)!!!
Conclusion
I started off saying that this is a mismatch. The above were my running thoughts to see if I could convince myself one way or the other. Well, I have.
Hokit is up against it, with very few routes to victory. I see Gane, with the confidence of a champion, putting Hokit away.
Keep him at bay with long-range kicks to the leg and body and jabs, set up the high kick, win the clinch exchanges, and don’t let the fight hit the ground.
Expected Outcome: And Still… Ciryl Gane… R3 KO/TKO
PS:
As far as Gane is concerned, I 100% ignore the Jon fight, since that was another mismatch.
Mismatches at the highest levels are not all that unusual. Styles make fights and skills pay the bills. In most aspects Gane is ahead vs Hokit, just as he was behind vs Jon.