Ahead of this weekend’s Dutch Grand Prix, Oscar Piastri heads the world championship by just nine points over Lando Norris.
With the two drivers scoring seven one-two finishes between them and taking victory at 11 of the first 14 races, the team’s momentum should help the exclusivity of their battle.
But we have now reached a key part of the campaign where momentum may terminally been grasped by one of the contenders, or at least to the point where the destiny of the battle may suddenly change, as previous examples have illustrated.
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2021
Heading into that season’s summer break, Lewis Hamilton led Max Verstappen by eight points, after the Dutchman’s progress had been dented by collisions with different Mercedes cars in successive races.
But Verstappen’s brilliant pole lap in the wet, at Spa, led to him winning the race, despite no Sunday racing; and he was again on the right side of the margins when he converted a gutsy pole into victory at his home race.
But then a poor start to Saturday’s Monza sprint, for Hamilton, allowed Verstappen to gain track position on him in the race. And it proved crucial, as the two tangled in a race that the Mercedes driver was expected to take back the championship lead.
LAP 26/53
Hamilton and Verstappen collide at Turn 2!
They are both out of the race #ItalianGP 🇮🇹 #F1 pic.twitter.com/6uuh7NhfZ4
— Formula 1 (@F1) September 12, 2021
It was the key part of the season, in which Verstappen remarkably recovered from his back-to-back crashes, to suddenly be in control again, helping him to his first world championship.
2018
Although Vettel’s dominant win at Spa had brought Hamilton’s lead down to 17 points, the German’s spin and Hamilton’s win at the following Italian race was a body blow to Ferrari’s championship chances, as the gap extended to 30 points. Alike 2021, the arguably quicker car at Monza could not capitalise upon that advantage.
“Timing is crucial and I managed that perfectly I thought”
Vettel describes his race-winning move >> https://t.co/KYr3RUIrzE#BelgianGP 🇧🇪 #F1 pic.twitter.com/0DG2g4bawP
— Formula 1 (@F1) August 26, 2018
That buffer, which was stemmed from two unexpected Hamilton wins, pre-summer break, was the bedrock of the Brit’s fifth world championship.
2017
A 14-point deficit became a three-point lead, for Hamilton, after a brilliant defensive drive at Spa, and a commanding Italian win, as Vettel’s Ferrari was losing competitiveness.
But a legitimate hope of winning back the advantage, at the following race in Singapore, eventually destroyed the German’s chances of winning that year’s title. On the first lap of the wet race, he was involved in a crash with Verstappen and Ferrari teammate Kimi Raikkonen.
Hamilton won that day, now leading the standings by 28 points, with a race victory that he unbelievably took, given that three cars that retired should have beaten him.
2016
Maybe Hamilton’s 2017 post-summer break form stemmed from the momentum he gave Nico Rosberg at the same point during the season before.
The Brit turned a 43-point deficit into a 19-point lead before the August break, but relinquished momentum as Rosberg won each of the next three races and four of the next five.
Although Hamilton’s engine failure, while leading, at Malaysia was crucial, and underlined his torrid reliability woes that year, Rosberg dug in deep to take control of a title battle that he would not lose.
He converted pole into the win at Spa; profited from Hamilton’s awful start from pole, at Monza; and executed arguably the best win of his career at the Singapore Grand Prix, by fending off the fast-charging Red Bull of Daniel Ricciardo.
All while Hamilton did not bring the best out of himself, Rosberg’s career-defining achievement was the consequence of his post-summer reset.
History will stretch further than just these examples. However, the substance of title battles has evidently got definitive in the few races after the summer break.
Although these examples mainly highlight title battles with drivers from different teams, non-performance-related variables can throw up decisive moments.
Poor starts, tangling with other cars, underperformance across a race weekend; they are always crucial elements of any title battle. But in a season where neither Norris nor Piastri have taken a commanding stronghold of the championship lead, such a tight championship can easily depend upon how they got their post-summer season underway.
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