Finally having gotten around to participating in my first Yahoo mock draft of the year, I wanted to talk about three players whose initial rankings stood out to me, and why I think I’ll end up with a few shares of them this year:
Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson
Yes, I’m already cheating and getting two for one here, but I am lumping these two together for a good reason. Last year both these players were drafted a fair bit earlier than their current ranks of 39 and 42 respectively. Each had a fairly decent season, but we have seen more from them both, and what you’re getting at around the 40th pick is closer to the floor for Dahlin and Thompson than their ceiling. What I mean by that, is that Dahlin and Thompson would have to have very uninspiring seasons to not be worth picks around 40th overall (especially Dahlin being a defenseman). As a result, I will likely have them each ranked within the 20-30 range on my board. In the DobberHockey forum mock draft, Dahlin went at pick 18, which seems about right, while Thompson slipped all the way to 64th!
With Sergachev locked in as the defenceman on the top unit for Utah’s power play, there’s the potential here for 35+ PPPs next year from the 27-year-old. Last season he notched 23 PPPs, but with a PPIPP of only 49% (that means Sergachev notched a point on 49% of power play goals that Utah scored while he was on the ice). The last five years in Tampa, Sergachev’s PPIPP percentage ranged from 63 to 77%, which is a remarkably consistent range. If he can jump up over 70% again, then that alone would bring him into the range of a 35 PPP season. Along with that, add some growth from the young Mammoth team, and top the wonderful scoring numbers off with some excellent peripherals, and you have the makings of a top-five fantasy defenseman. This lines up with Cliffy’s data that was pointing to Sergachev as one of the best bets to make that jump into the upper echelon as well. In the DobberHockey Forum mock draft, Sergachev was selected at pick #85, and was the 15th defenceman off the board.
Last year, I won a few leagues on the back of some big scoring wingers picked around and after slot #100, including Lucas Raymond, Martin Necas, Nikolaj Ehlers, and others. This year, we already have a former 100-point scorer who is still not even 27-years old, who is going in that range. Other players in this range would have to have a fantastic season just to get to 80 points, let alone 90 or 100. I’ll take the risk when the downside is a 60-point season, and name-value in a trade that I could move for more anytime he’s on a hot streak. In the DobberHockey Forum mock draft, Pettersson was selected at pick #54, which might be the upper end of his range, but is still a reasonable spot. If you can get him 25-40 picks later then it will likely be a steal this season.
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I traded for Mike Matheson in my Salary Cap dynasty league recently, and while the move was largely a swap of similar defencemen for me with the goal of saving a few dollars, it got me wondering exactly what we’re going to see from Matheson this year.
My take on the defense situation in Montreal is that Lane Hutson is going to be running the top power play unit, with Noah Dobson the main anchor on the blueline who also mops up any extra time on PP2. Maybe Matheson pairs with Dobson on the second unit, or maybe that one runs with four forwards as well. Regardless, it’s going to be a step down in power play time and production for Matheson in Montreal this season.
The “in Montreal” part is the tricky bit to predict though, as a trade is very possible for the pending UFA. Not a lot of teams have a need for an offensive LHD, especially this early in the season, but there are always struggles or injuries that open doors to potential trades, so if Matheson is dealt, I think it happens mid-season.
Matheson has paced for a wide range of even strength production with the Canadiens, playing between a 22-point and 49-point pace at even strength over the last three years. Assuming we average that out and expect little-to-no power play production, then we end up with about a 35-point pace for Matheson. That seems about right for this year on a Montreal team that looks to be on the rise but will probably still be on the playoff bubble. If/when Matheson is moved to another team, then he could end up anywhere from a 30 to a 60-point pace, which has been his overall range the last few years.
As I said above, the fits for someone of Matheson’s profile are limited, though the Florida Panthers might be able to make it work as soon as Matthew Tkachuk goes on LTIR. Maybe the Lightning could be a fit at mid-season, when they’ve accrued some cap space, or maybe Utah decides that Matheson would be an upgrade over their five bottom-pairing-level players that they have to compete for their L2 slot.
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Sticking with Florida, and having Tkachuk shifted to LTIR, the news of him undergoing surgery came out a day after the Panthers signed Luke Kunin. To me, the two are very obviously related, with Kunin being brought in to help fill out the forward ranks while Tkachuk is injured. The Panthers already had 12 healthy forwards, but they likely don’t want to promise more than bottom-line minutes to any of A.J. Greer, Tomas Nosek, Jesper Boqvist, or Jonah Gadjovich. This means that there’s a very real chance that Kunin starts the season as a top-nine player, which is a great spot to be on the Panthers.
I profiled Kunin as part of my Remaining Free Agents to Watch section in the Fantasy Guide, and here’s what I had to say about him there:
“When searching for multi-category fliers to take late, don’t gloss over Kunin as a fringe player. He’s someone that can play as high as a middle-six role, but is likely better suited for a third-line spot, as he hasn’t developed the soft touch on offence that some were hoping for. What he has brought in recent years is a constantly growing hits-per-game rate, along with solid numbers in blocks, PIMs, and shots. He’s still only 27, and can play on the power play, penalty kill, or at centre as well. His heavier style should see him land a one-way deal, and after stops in San Jose and Columbus, hopefully it’s somewhere that won’t tank his plus-minus again this year too.”
Indeed, Kunin has landed somewhere that won’t tank his plus-minus stat, and he could turn into an excellent multi-category player this year (a lite version of Mathieu Olivier, but with less PIMs, and a few more shots). He’s someone I’ll be looking at as a late-round flier in the right type of league.
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Tyson Barrie announced his retirement on Monday. The 34-year-old had really fallen off recently as he lost a step on offence, which was his calling card for his effectiveness. At his peak, he led the league in defense scoring, and was a difference maker at both ends of the ice. All the best in retirement Tyson, from all of us who you helped to fantasy championships.
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I had wondered whether Barrie might get a PTO in training camp from someone like Calgary or Chicago, who wanted to look at another option in case their young defensemen didn’t appear ready to make the jump. It also got me thinking about the PTO change coming next year as part of the new CBA, where teams can sign players to PTOs in-season. From Puckpedia: “Teams will be able to sign players to a 10-day PTO with right of first refusal on any NHL deal offered”. What this means is that if we see injuries crop up, or youngsters who aren’t playing up to snuff, then they could be replaced with more veteran fringe NHLers who didn’t quite land a deal in training camp. I’m not sure exactly how it might impact PTOs moving forward, but it’s something to make note of for now.
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See you next Wednesday, and if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.