Hold onto your crystal balls, basketball fortune tellers, because the same experts who went a spectacular 0-for-6 on their major award predictions last season just dropped their win total forecasts for 2025-26. That’s right – the people who couldn’t correctly predict a sunrise are back with more confident proclamations about how the upcoming campaign will unfold.
The NBA Summer Forecast represents the annual ritual of highly paid analysts pretending they can predict the future while conveniently forgetting their previous spectacular failures. This year’s edition features the usual mix of bold predictions, safe bets, and the kind of overconfidence that would make a weatherman jealous.
Thunder could break basketball itself
The Oklahoma City Thunder earned a 64-18 projection, which seems almost insulting considering they’re defending champions with their entire roster returning intact. Only 22 teams in league history have won at least 65 games, and most of those squads saw significant drops the following season.
However, the Thunder possess several advantages that could propel them toward historic territory. The Eastern Conference appears weaker following major injuries in Indiana and Boston, giving Oklahoma City easier matchups during interconference play. Last season, they dominated Eastern opponents with a ridiculous 29-1 record that suggests even more victories might be possible.
The combination of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein staying healthy, plus natural development from their young core, could push the Thunder toward the mythical 70-win threshold. When either big man was available last season, Oklahoma City posted a 59-10 record that translates to exactly 70 wins over a full campaign.
Veteran teams ready to surprise skeptics
The Los Angeles Clippers earned a conservative 50-32 projection despite making several shrewd offseason moves that addressed their biggest weaknesses. Trading for Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, John Collins, and Brook Lopez transformed them into one of the league’s deepest teams while maintaining their veteran savvy.
Golden State Warriors face similar underestimation at 48-34, particularly if the Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler partnership continues developing. The duo posted a remarkable 22-5 record in games they played together last season, suggesting their projected win total might be laughably low.
Miami Heat at 39-43 represents perhaps the most obvious candidate to exceed expectations, especially after adding Norman Powell’s 21.8 points per game to address their offensive struggles. The Heat finished 14-28 in clutch games last season, which seems unsustainable for an organization known for late-game execution.
Championship hangover candidates
The Minnesota Timberwolves face a 51-31 projection that might be overly optimistic considering their franchise history. Minnesota has surpassed 51 wins just twice ever, and they lost key depth pieces while relying heavily on aging veterans Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert.
Detroit Pistons at 47-35 could experience the classic consolidation year that often follows magical breakthrough seasons. Going from 14 to 44 wins represents the kind of dramatic improvement that’s difficult to sustain, especially when relying on young players to expand their roles significantly.
Western Conference reality check
The Dallas Mavericks projection of 44-38 might prove generous considering Kyrie Irving’s recovery from ACL surgery and Anthony Davis’ ongoing health concerns. The brutal Western Conference competition makes every win precious, and roster uncertainty could derail even modest expectations.
San Antonio Spurs face similar challenges at 44-38 despite Victor Wembanyama’s continued dominance. Figuring out how to integrate De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, and Stephon Castle around their franchise cornerstone represents a significant puzzle for first-time head coach Mitch Johnson.
The Portland Trail Blazers at 39-43 seem positioned to disappoint, particularly in an unforgiving conference where improvement requires more than just swapping Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday.