Editor’s note: This article is part of our NFL QB Stock Report series. Every week, Jeff Howe notes who’s rising and falling at starting quarterback (and why) for all 32 teams.

Patrick Mahomes could stroll into any gathering of current quarterbacks, place his hardware on the table, flash a smile and not say a word. He’d be the most respected man in a room among peers.

He’s got three Lombardi Trophies, three Super Bowl MVPs and a couple of regular-season MVP awards to count among his most prized possessions. Still a couple of weeks shy of his 30th birthday, Mahomes has achieved in his relatively young career more than only a handful of other players have ever accomplished.

In that respect, he still stands alone in the post-Tom Brady era of QB play.

“There are others who rival him,” said a rival team executive, who was granted anonymity so that he could speak openly. “Although if I had to pick one for a single drive, I’d take Mahomes.”

However, more recent history has told a different story, one in which the Kansas City Chiefs superstar’s numbers have dramatically dipped across the board. And as reigning MVP Josh Allen, two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow have each elevated their games, it’s fair to say Mahomes has company in the QB penthouse.

“(Mahomes) is in a league of his own because of the winning and championships,”another executive said. “But the other (three) guys right now are playing better.”

At this time a year ago, Mahomes had so much distance between himself and everyone else that it felt like they were all playing a different sport. So what happened, and how can he reclaim that perch?

“The talent gap between all those guys is minimal,” the second executive observed. “He just needs to produce.”

If you take Mahomes’ first five seasons as Kansas City’s full-time starter (2018-22) and prorate his production over 17-game splits, he averaged 5,155 passing yards, 41.3 touchdowns and 10.3 interceptions with a 106.0 passer rating. He added 330.7 rushing yards, 2.6 touchdowns and 22.4 first downs. The Chiefs averaged 30.1 points per game.

Over the past two seasons, however, Mahomes’ 17-game prorated splits equated to 4,309 passing yards, 28.2 touchdowns, 13.3 interceptions and a 93.0 passer rating. He added 369.8 rushing yards, 1.1 touchdowns and 26.0 first downs. The Chiefs averaged 22.2 points per game.

In two crucial years of Mahomes’ prime — both of which resulted in Super Bowl appearances — his numbers dropped by seismic proportions. He’s taken advantage of defenses’ shell looks by running with a bit more success, but Mahomes’ passing production has alarmingly deteriorated.

Some of it’s easily explainable. The Chiefs haven’t looked the same since trading wideout Tyreek Hill, and tight end Travis Kelce’s skills have eroded in his mid-30s. The roster turnover at receiver, including Rashee Rice’s off-field issues, have disrupted chemistry within the flow of the system.

Coaches and executives recently polled by The Athletic believe it’s far more about the cast around Mahomes than anything else. But they’ve also seen vulnerabilities in his footwork.

“If you’re trying to teach footwork to a quarterback, you don’t turn on his tape because it’s such a backyard style,” a coach said. “He’s so talented that he gets away with it, but last year his feet were the worst they’d been in years, and it was hurting him. Before that, it didn’t matter; he could throw from anywhere. I have a feeling he’ll have a better year this year.”

Another tell: Mahomes finished third in the MVP voting among our annual preseason poll of coaches and executives, slipping behind Burrow and Allen. Last year, though, Mahomes finished first with 18 of 26 votes in the most lopsided result ever, as no one else finished with more than two votes.

So, it was worth following up. Is the change due to Mahomes’ decline or the others’ improvements?

No one believed Mahomes’ skills were declining aside from some correctable nitpicks. They just believe he’s been managing with too many unknowns around him, while his peers have caught up.

There might be a much younger QB ready to push for the top tier this season, too.

“(Jayden) Daniels might be my favorite quarterback right now,” a coach said. “He’s an extremely talented QB who happens to be Bambi. He can dart everywhere and make plays. I would go for it every fourth down if I had him, too. He’s going to gain yards. He’s very hard to defend because he’s very accurate, and he can run around.”

Ultimately, quarterbacks are judged by winning on the greatest stage, and Mahomes is 6-1 against Allen (4-0), Jackson (1-0) and Burrow (1-1) in the postseason.

The performance reviews have led to fun discussions among coaches and executives. But until a top-tier QB can routinely slay Mahomes and the Chiefs in the playoffs, there’s one debate that’s not yet worth the energy.

The future is (not quite) now

Cam Ward is the only rookie quarterback who won a starting job, as teams stuck to their long-term plans with their draftees.

Ward was an easy choice to start for the Titans. General manager Mike Borgonzi and his staff began to focus their attention on drafting Ward with the No. 1 selection by February at the combine, so they’ve had a jumpstart on their plans. They intended for Ward to start the opener, and the Miami product reinforced everything they believed about him throughout the offseason.

So when will rookies Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough and Shedeur Sanders (or Dillon Gabriel) make their starting debuts?

Dart had the best summer of the group, and Giants head coach Brian Daboll would have been justified in choosing the first-rounder over veteran Russell Wilson. But considering the Giants announced in January that both Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen would keep their jobs, it’s logical to believe Giants ownership expects more in the way of results in 2025. Wilson is better suited for that short-term vision.

Plus, the Giants open with a brutal schedule. They’ll need Wilson to help them tread water for a couple of months to give themselves a shot in the second half.

If things go entirely south, the Giants could be eying a Dart debut in Week 7 — a long week after a Thursday night game — but that’d mean back-to-back road trips against the Broncos and Eagles and two of the best defensive coordinators on the planet. They could wait for Week 9 when they host the 49ers, but a trio of defensive coordinators in Robert Saleh, Dennis Allen (Bears) and Jeff Hafley (Packers) won’t be favorable, either.

The Giants’ best-case scenario would be staying in the playoff race until December because they won’t have to deal with the distraction of starting a rookie or the challenge of threading the needle to find a runway where Dart can build confidence.

Meanwhile, the Saints have more room for error under new coach Kellen Moore, especially after four consecutive seasons without a playoff berth. They opted for the conservative approach to start Rattler over Shough to give the rookie more time to watch and learn.

The Saints have a tough opening month before hosting the Giants and Patriots in Weeks 5-6. For a rebuilding team without high playoff aspirations, the Saints might opt for short-term pain under the theory it could yield long-term hope. At minimum, the second-rounder needs ample time to audition before the Saints refocus on the 2026 draft.

The Browns, once again, have welcomed distraction. They had a chance to reset with Deshaun Watson rehabbing his torn Achilles for the season and were off to a necessarily quiet start to the offseason by acquiring Flacco and Kenny Pickett (who has since been traded to the Raiders). But they drafted Gabriel and Sanders, knowing full well that one of their rookies wasn’t going to earn quality practice reps once they switched to regular-season training.

Flacco has experienced stretches of success over parts of the past two seasons that defied logic, so perhaps he has a little more magic left in the tank. If that runs out, the fans will be screaming for Sanders as though the second-stringer Gabriel doesn’t exist.

It might feel like a long wait before the Browns decide to start their third-stringer, but they started nine quarterbacks over the past two seasons. Three should be a welcome improvement.

Here today, gone tomorrow?

Seven quarterbacks from the 2024 Week 1 Stock Report no longer appear: Kirk Cousins, Anthony Richardson, Derek Carr, Will Levis, Deshaun Watson, Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew.

Carr retired. Cousins and Richardson were benched. Levis and Watson suffered season-ending injuries, though Levis would have been a long shot to beat out Ward, anyway. Brissett and Minshew have returned to more suitable backup roles.

So who might face a similar fate in 2026?

Daniel Jones already came back from a benching, a release and a camp competition against a more promising QB (Richardson), but he’s still on the short list. Rodgers, Wilson and Flacco have hit the musical-chairs portion of their careers, so they’ve got to hope the sound system still works. Rattler looks like a placeholder for Shough. And until the Jets tip their hand on a long-term plan, Justin Fields will perpetually be in the audition chair.

That doesn’t mean the entire group should be sharpening its golf game. Sam Darnold would have been a candidate for this category a year ago, but he instead improved his stock in a dramatic way. He followed the likes of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield before him.

It’s time for others to prove they can do the same.

Notes

Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Fields, Flacco and Jones weren’t listed among the final rankings last season due to injuries or benchings. But here’s where they each ranked in their last appearances in the QB Stock Report:

• Prescott: No. 16, Week 9
• Lawrence: No. 29, Week 14
• Fields: No. 21, Week 7
• Flacco: No. 27, Week 11
• Jones: No. 29, Week 11

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(Photo: David Eulitt / Getty Images)