The Phoenix Mercury remain in the mix for the No. 2 seed in the W after knocking off the Washington Mystics on Thursday, and they have another favorable matchup on Saturday afternoon.

Alyssa Thomas will lead the Mercury against her former team — the Connecticut Sun — on Saturday, as CT is well out of the playoff race with just 10 wins in 41 games so far this season.

The Las Vegas Aces and Atlanta Dream are also vying for the No. 2 seed, but one slip up could open the door for Phoenix to get that spot. 

Oddsmakers have set the Mercury ass sizable favorites in this one against a Sun team that has nothing playoff wise to play for.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Saturday. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Mercury Injury ReportSun Injury ReportMercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

I’m fading Sabally in this matchup, as the Sun rank sixth in the WNBA in defensive rating over their last 10 games.

Sabally’s season average has fallen to 16.3 points per game, and she’s taken 10 or fewer shots in five of her last six matchups. The star forward is averaging just 12.8 points per game during that stretch, clearing this line just once.

Based on usage alone, this feels like an easy under bet, especially since Sabally hasn’t been efficient in 2025. She’s shooting just 39.4 percent from the field and 30.9 percent from 3 across 36 games. 

There is a ton at stake for Phoenix in this game with the No. 2 seed still in play, and I think it’s able to cover the spread on the road against a Sun team that was blown out by the Chicago Sky on Thursday night.

Connecticut still is just ninth in net rating over its last 10 games – despite winning five of them – and it’s lost three games in a row. The Sun are also one of the worst offenses in the league, and I expect them to struggle to score against a Phoenix team that is in the top five in the W in defensive rating.

The Mercury are 21-19-1 against the spread this season, and they have beaten the Sun by 16 (at home) and eight (on the road) in their meetings this season.

With CT’s season all but over and the Mercury competing for a top playoff spigot, there is a small motivation factor that bettors can’t look past in this game.

I’ll lay the points on Saturday afternoon as the Mercury look to win their seventh game in a row.

Pick: Mercury -10.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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