“These developments are in line with our view that rebuilding market confidence will support a slow recovery in the second half of 2025, and set the stage for stronger demand in 2026,” Hogue said.
Inventory and affordability shaped mortgage opportunities
For mortgage brokers, the divergence in regional trends underscored the importance of local expertise. “Balanced, if sometimes tight, conditions are driving property values higher in most of the Prairies, Quebec and parts of Atlantic Canada, while high inventory is depressing values in Ontario and British Columbia,” Hogue said.
The MLS Home Price Index fell again in Toronto, Hamilton, Calgary, Edmonton, Fraser Valley, and Vancouver, with inventory surges most pronounced in Calgary and Edmonton due to strong construction.
Toronto’s market, after months of steady gains, saw resales dip 1.8% from July, seasonally adjusted, with condos remaining soft. The composite MLS HPI edged 0.1% lower to $978,100, continuing a year-long downtrend. Condo prices fell 7% year-over-year, and single-detached homes dropped 5.6%. But that’s still failing to materially change the picture for many hopeful buyers. “Affordability—while improving—will remain a big issue,” Hogue said.
Montreal’s market broke from its lull, with new listings and home resales up more than 8% and 5% from July, respectively. Median prices rose 7.3% for single-family homes and 3.7% for condos compared to last year, but affordability constraints could slow further gains.