Welcome to Week 2, survivors! Unlike last year’s Week 1 carnage — where the 50-percent-favorite, Cincinnati, went down to New England — the favorites in Week 1 this year did exactly what they were supposed to do: Win. The Broncos, Commanders, Cardinals, Eagles and Bengals all managed to keep us afloat, and even our contrarian picks (Rams over Texans and Raiders over Patriots) held.

So, how will we do for Week 2? Our survivor columnists, Renee Miller and Adam Gretz, are here to guide you through your picks.

A reminder of the format: Each week, Renee and Adam will provide their picks, strategies and explain their reasoning. Both have written about general strategies for survivor pools, with Adam focusing on the rules and how you can apply game theory to win, and Renee writing about the psychology of competing against a group in this format.

Note: We’ll avoid writing about the most-used teams in previous weeks in order to serve the largest number of readers. Where relevant, we’ll still advocate for or against a previously popular team in the intro or in our blurbs, since not everyone will have used them.

Highest percentage pick in Week 1: Denver Broncos (25 percent, W)

Week 2 strategy

Renee: Week 1 was such a relief — for those of us suffering PTSD from the early 2024 season at least. Pretty much everyone who was supposed to win did. It wasn’t always pretty (I was sweating the Bengals and the Broncos), but the eight most-picked teams in survivor pools won in Week 1. I’m sure that not every week will be so clean, but we’re off to a good start!

The biggest challenge for Week 2 is internalizing the fact that not everything we saw in Week 1 will be true going forward. I’ve written many times about the Primacy Effect, and Week 1 of the NFL season is the best example I can think of for it. The amount of anticipation we have for the start of real football amplifies our ability to learn and remember what happens in those first games. That information gains a foothold in our future decision-making processes, unduly influencing our next picks (or fantasy plays).

The real challenge is knowing that some of what we saw is true, but not all. So, what to believe and rely on and what to discard? I won’t be able to answer that definitively for a few more weeks, but here are some things I feel pretty confident about.

Carolina is still a great team to target the opponent of in survivor.
Miami could be worse than the Panthers, but I want to see another game.
It’s going to be hard to use anyone in the NFC North in a close matchup, at least in the near future.
Las Vegas is no longer a doormat. Atlanta is no longer a doormat?
Denver’s offense did not quite live up to the offseason hype, but I’ll give them more time before giving up hope. I’m glad I used them in Week 1 along with 25 percent of you.
The Jets and Steelers were expected to be defensive juggernauts, not offensive machines. I’m going to need a lot more evidence to believe either is a 30 points per game team.
Whatever San Francisco did to upset the football injury gods, they don’t deserve this.

For this week, my top pick is one without another good game for months, heavily favored at home, and with plenty to prove. I’m still more interested in putting notches in the W column than differentiating myself too much in my small-to-medium-sized pools. There is nothing wrong with letting other people make the mistakes early!

Adam: Denver really spent most of Sunday playing with its food and nearly burned itself, and if Cleveland had a kicker it could rely on, the Bengals very well could have sabotaged countless pools in the opening week for a second year in a row. But that’s the beauty of Week 1 of the NFL — chaos rules and nothing is as it seemed in the preseason.

I very much agree with Renee that Carolina is still a team to target early on, and I’m going to add Tennessee and New Orleans to that list early this season as well.

While I don’t particularly like this Miami team, I’m not ready to completely write them off or make them a target just yet. I could even see an argument for trying to roll with them this week if you’re feeling a little wild (and I will make that argument, or at least try to).

Honestly, this seems like a dangerous week to me. You’re not only dealing with the potentially misleading results from Week 1, but there are also not a lot of great matchups that seem like obvious plays. I don’t want to use Baltimore or Detroit quite yet, and there are quite a few matchups that feature good teams playing other good teams (Philadelphia vs. Kansas City, Washington vs. Green Bay).

I’m still at the point where I’m picking against teams more than picking any one team.

New Orleans seems like an easy target against San Francisco, but the 49ers’ injury situation is a concern.

Carolina is definitely a potential team to pick against, but how much do you trust Arizona? I’m not quite there.

That leaves me with another of the NFL’s worst teams on paper to pick against, and a contrarian pick that might be a little off the board given the Week 1 results.

Week 2 chalk picks

The table below lists the five most popular survivor picks for Week 2 from Yahoo Fantasy, with the percentage of pick distribution for each of those teams as well as the point spread, from BetMGM, for each of their games as of Sept. 10.

Renee: Dallas Cowboys over NY Giants

Opening the season against the reigning Super Bowl champs, in their house, is not an easy feat. The fact that this game was neck-and-neck through the first half, and only three total points were scored in the second half, tells me that the Cowboys can hang with the best. On the other hand, the Giants were completely outmatched by the Commanders in Week 1 on both sides of the ball.

Like me, many of you are not fans of picking divisional games in survivor, but in this case, hear me out. In 2024, the Giants were the second-lowest scoring team in the league and already lead the league in that category this year. They failed to capitalize on two trips inside the 5-yard line, coming away with just one field goal. You know that Malik Nabers is just waiting for his chance at a Saquon Barkley or Daniel Jones-esque renaissance when his contract is up.

Dallas is getting new life out of Javonte Williams and George Pickens on offense, with a healthy Dak Prescott running the show. Though they ultimately lost the game, the Cowboys’ defense did its job in the second half, holding the Eagles to a single field goal (without Micah Parsons, no less). They will face a much easier task against Russell Wilson and company this week for their home opener.

This is a talent mismatch for sure, but also an energy mismatch that’s harder to quantify. The Giants have no idea who they are or want to be, while the Cowboys know what they’re capable of and exactly who they want to be. The motivation that comes from losing a close game to a superior opponent will be on full display this Sunday, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Dallas wins by 20 points.

Adam: Los Angeles Rams over Tennessee Titans

The Titans kept things interesting in Denver in Week 1 just enough to make things scary for everybody who picked the Broncos (like me). But the fact that Tennessee was not able to win that game and take advantage of Denver’s many, many mistakes is a testament to just how far this team is from competing and contending.

A mediocre team probably wins that game. A good team certainly wins it.

Quarterback Cam Ward has immense upside, but he is still a rookie learning his way in the NFL with a rookie head coach and a pretty lousy team around him. I don’t know how many wins this team has in it this season, so for right now, I’m going to see them as an early-season target to pick against.

This week, the Rams just so happen to be the team that gets them.

I’m usually skeptical of the West Coast team coming east for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff, but the talent and coaching gap here is just too great for me to worry about that. Especially at quarterback. Matthew Stafford’s back may be a big question mark for the season, but he is a top-tier quarterback when healthy, and he seemed healthy enough in Week 1. That alone gives me confidence in the Rams pulling this off. I like the Rams on their own. But I really like them against this Titans team.

Week 2 contrarian picks

Renee: Pittsburgh Steelers over Seattle Seahawks

I’m going to say at the outset that I’m not super confident in this pick. There are the options above, as well as Arizona, Minnesota, and Jacksonville, which are bigger favorites and will have more backers, I’m sure. Pittsburgh’s Week 1 game represented a complete turnaround from the familiar Steelers of late. They scored at will against what was expected to be a decent Jets defense while allowing an incredible 32 points to the Justin Fields-led Jets. Not only did we have a QB swap, but a complete identity shift from the 2024 version.

How much of that was Aaron Rodgers proving it to his former team? Did the personnel changes Pittsburgh made this offseason really result in a well-oiled offensive machine? Is the Steel Curtain now made of silk? Week 2 is going to offer a lot of answers I wish we had today.

My guess is that the Week 1 win will go a long way toward gelling the new Steelers’ teammates. A come-from-behind win tends to do that. The defense has some studying to do this week, but I think we will see a reversion to the norm; that is, living up to their potential as we expected for 2025 (they were rated the third-best defense in preseason rankings). They’ve already moved to replace their injured safety DeShon Elliott with veteran Jabrill Peppers this week.

On the Seattle side, there were also numerous offseason personnel changes, including at quarterback and wide receiver. The 49ers held Sam Darnold to 150 passing yards, almost all of which went to second-year receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. However, Smith-Njigba fumbled twice, losing one, and Darnold also coughed it up. They appeared to be anything but well-oiled.

There may also be controversy brewing at the running back position, with “backup” Zach Charbonnet getting a majority of the opportunities over starter Kenneth Walker III. This is speculation, but team cohesiveness and camaraderie are important, if unquantifiable, factors in picking a winner. Throw in the cross-country trip this week, and my money’s on Pittsburgh pulling out an easy win.

Adam: Miami Dolphins over New England Patriots

Okay, look, Miami played awful in Week 1. Tua Tagovailoa looked awful in Week 1. Mike McDaniel remains on fraud watch until further notice as a head coach. They might not be a particularly good team this season. They probably are not a particularly good team this season.

But there is no way they are as bad as they showed in the season opener. There is no way they play that badly again. Especially against a New England team that looks the same as the past few New England teams we have seen.

Drake Maye might end up being the long-term answer at quarterback, but he has nothing around him right now in terms of playmakers, and this team has been completely incompetent on offense for more than two years.

McDaniel’s offense at least works against bad teams, and until further notice, New England should still be considered a bad team.

Miami wouldn’t be my top pick of the week, but I think so many people are going to be out on them after that clunker in the season-opener that they might be a good contrarian play here just to potentially burn a team you might not ever want to think about again.

(Photo of Dak Prescott: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)