We were so close to immortality — a perfect 5-0 ATS run on my Locks of the Week. And then Caleb Williams turned into a pumpkin. Or was it J.J. McCarthy turning into Superman? Either way, the Chicago Bears let an outright win fall between their fingers on Monday night and spurned our hopes of beginning the year on a perfect note. Nevertheless, it was a solid start for us to begin 2025 as it relates to my locks, but we’re aiming for much better results than the overall 8-8 ATS record for the opening slate. And that begins in Week 2.

One thing I’ve noticed about my picks this week is that I seem to like the dogs. I’m taking the points with seven underdogs in Week 2 and am choosing four of them to win outright. Three of those outright dogs also find their way into my five locks, so let’s get to it!

2025 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 4-1-0
ATS: 8-8-0
ML: 9-7

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Thursday, 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)

I already highlighted the Packers as a possible upset candidate in my weekly story, and I’m taking them to fall in Week 2. After convincingly taking down the Detroit Lions in the opener, I wonder if they’re due for a letdown on a short week against an opponent that should prove to be much more difficult. The Lions were working in two new coordinators, which could explain why the offense looked clunky. Meanwhile, the Commanders have continuity and are coming off a remarkable 2024 that saw them run to the NFC Championship. I think Jayden Daniels will prove to be a much harder quarterback to contain, and new additions like running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt and wideout Deebo Samuel both flashed in their debuts.

As for Green Bay, my antenna is raised a bit with Jordan Love. Overall, he had a fine performance statistically, completing 16 of 22 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns. However, the underlying metrics tell a less flattering story. His 4.5% turnover-worthy throw rate ranked eighth-highest among starters in Week 1, while 18.2% of his throws were off-target — the second-highest rate among quarterbacks, behind only Caleb Williams. If those metrics become more apparent in Week 2, I’ll be quite happy having the field goal and the hook in my pocket along with a Commanders outright slip.

Projected score: Commanders 24, Packers 23
The pick: Commanders +3.5

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Conventional wisdom says not to bet against Patrick Mahomes, especially when he’s anything close to an underdog. In games where he’s not favored by more than three points, the Chiefs QB is 20-7-1 ATS. 

Even with that knowledge, we’re fading Kansas City anyway. With Xavier Worthy (shoulder) sidelined and Rashee Rice still suspended, I’m not sure the Chiefs have the firepower to match the Eagles in this Super Bowl LIX rematch. Philadelphia’s defense didn’t wow me in the opener against Dallas, but that could largely be due to Jalen Carter being ejected before the first snap. With him back in the fold, I expect the Eagles defense to look a whole lot better and help the team exit Arrowhead 2-0.

Projected score: Eagles 26, Chiefs 20
The pick: Eagles -1.5

This has more to do with the Dolphins than anything else. We knew the defense, particularly the secondary, would struggle amid all the turnover and injuries on that side of the ball. The strength was supposed to be the offense; however, it looked atrocious. Tua Tagovailoa was in shambles out of the gate with back-to-back turnovers to begin the day and finished with three total giveaways. What’s even scarier is that it could’ve been worse for the Dolphins QB, who had an 8.7% turnover-worthy throw rate — the highest among all quarterbacks in Week 1. Meanwhile, the vibes on the sideline feel equally bad, with Mike McDaniel’s seat getting hotter by the minute.

The Patriots didn’t impress in their season opener, particularly with their second-half dud against Las Vegas. However, this Miami defense presents Drake Maye and Co. with the perfect get-right spot, which I think they take advantage of.

Projected score: Patriots 24, Dolphins 20
The pick: Patriots +1.5

Chicago Bears at Detroit LionsSunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Lions offense looked like it missed Ben Johnson in Week 1, and Johnson himself looked like he missed the Lions offense, particularly late in Chicago’s second-half collapse against Minnesota. Coming into this matchup, the story will be Johnson taking on his former team, but I fear Caleb Williams could be the main storyline. The Bears quarterback struggled mightily during that collapse against the Vikings, shaking my preseason confidence in them as a surprise contender. In Week 1, Williams had an off-target throw rate of 22.9%, the highest among quarterbacks. That was on full display when he missed a wide-open D.J. Moore for what would’ve been a back-breaking touchdown.

It doesn’t matter what magic Johnson schemes up if Williams can’t deliver the football where it needs to go. 

Projected score: Lions 30, Bears 20
The pick: Lions -5.5

Monday, 7 p.m. (ESPN/ABC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Another dog we’re taking outright is the Buccaneers. They narrowly escaped Atlanta with a Week 1 win, but this pick has more to do with the continued questions surrounding Houston’s offensive line. Even after an offseason makeover, it didn’t look much better than the 2024 version. C.J. Stroud was sacked three times in Week 1 as the offensive line gave up 14 pressures. The unit’s 41.2% pressures allowed per dropback rate was the seventh-highest among teams in Week 1. That doesn’t give me much confidence in them covering or winning this home opener. Last season, the Texans were 4-4-1 ATS at home, so these games have been close. Meanwhile, the Bucs were 5-3 straight-up on the road in 2024.

Projected score: Buccaneers 23, Texans 20 
The pick: Buccaneers +2.5

Rest of the bunch

Bills at Jets
Projected score: Bills 30, Jets 20
The pick: Bills -7

Browns at Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 33, Browns 17
The pick: Ravens -12.5

Jaguars at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 27, Jaguars 24
The pick: Jaguars +3.5

Rams at Titans
Projected score: Rams 23, Titans 17
The pick: Rams -5.5

Giants at Cowboys
Projected score: Cowboys 28, Giants 20
The pick: Cowboys -5.5

Seahawks at Steelers
Projected score: Seahawks 24, Steelers 21
The pick: Seahawks +3

49ers at Saints
Projected score: 49ers 26, Saints 19
The pick: 49ers -4.5

Panthers at Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 30, Panthers 21
The pick: Cardinals -6.5

Broncos at Colts
Projected score: Broncos 24, Colts 20
The pick: Broncos -2.5

Falcons at Vikings
Projected score: Vikings 24, Falcons 21
The pick: Falcons +4.5

Chargers at Raiders (Monday)
Projected score: Chargers 27, Raiders 24
The pick: Raiders +3.5