CANADA – 2025/05/09: In this photo illustration, the IonQ logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), a quantum computing company, has taken a major leap by figuring out how to mass-produce high-quality synthetic diamond films. Think of it this way: they can now bond these specialized diamonds onto standard computer chips—a potential game-changer for building quantum computers.
Developed with Element Six, this breakthrough enables the company to manufacture these components at scale. It’s a core element of IonQ’s plan to reach a 2-million-qubit quantum system by 2030. In fact, IonQ’s acquisition of the UK quantum computing startup Oxford Ionics a few months ago was a pivotal step to speed up this goal.
With this advance, the big question is whether it can drive even more explosive gains in IonQ’s stock. The stock has already surged 500% in the last year, but could it climb another 10x from here, reaching $400 a share? It can. In the sections below, we outline what could enable that outcome.
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10x Growth Drivers
Superior Technical Architecture: IonQ’s trapped-ion approach runs at room temperature with inherently high fidelity, unlike superconducting systems that require extreme cooling.
Strategic Cloud Partnerships: Instead of competing with hyperscalers, IonQ enables them via partnerships with Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. This symbiotic model speeds enterprise adoption on trusted platforms—similar to Snowflake’s successful cloud data strategy. Notably, other quantum players such as Rigetti, IBM, and Honeywell’s Quantinuum follow a similar approach.
Government Validation: Significant contracts with the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory and other agencies provide a stable revenue base while validating the technology for mission-critical use cases—strong signals of technical credibility.
Market Timing Advantage: Quantum computing is nearing a commercial inflection, with McKinsey estimating a market approaching $100 billion by 2035. IonQ’s focus on optimization, machine learning, and cryptography broadens its addressable opportunity.
Risk Factors
Technical Scaling Challenges: Even with architectural strengths, IonQ must solve complex engineering hurdles to reach thousands of qubits while holding performance leadership against advancing competitors, including Google’s Willow chip.
Revenue Concentration: Heavy reliance on cloud partners and government contracts creates exposure to partnership or funding shifts. Expanding direct enterprise sales remains difficult but important.
Competitive Pressure: Well-funded rivals—IBM, Google, and startups like Atom Computing—are pushing alternative approaches that could erode IonQ’s edge.
Commercial Timeline Uncertainty: Success hinges on quantum applications achieving commercial viability before cash burn becomes a constraint—always a challenge in emerging tech. IonQ’s operating cash flow of -$144 million over the last twelve months implies a -275% operating cash flow margin.
Historical Precedents
Tesla’s Transformation (2019-2021): Tesla’s climb from $17 to over $400 shows how leadership in transformative tech can drive explosive returns. IonQ could similarly lead quantum computing’s shift.
AWS Precedent: Amazon’s conversion of internal infrastructure into an $80+ billion revenue business illustrates how cloud-based services can create massive value as markets mature.
NVIDIA’s AI Revolution: Since 2016, NVIDIA’s stock rose from around $3 to more than $170 (split-adjusted), a 68x jump, as it evolved from gaming graphics to core AI infrastructure. IonQ could similarly benefit as quantum infrastructure scales.
Biotech Breakthroughs: Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine propelled its stock from $20 to over $400 in 2020-2021, showing how breakthrough applications can spark dramatic gains. Quantum optimization solutions could disrupt industries once commercial traction arrives.
The Bottom Line
IonQ is a high-risk, high-reward name with significant upside potential. Its trapped-ion technology and cloud-first strategy could provide an edge. To realize that potential, the company must sustain technical leadership, convert research into real-world applications, and monetize partnerships. For investors comfortable with risk, IonQ offers a way to invest directly in the future of quantum computing.
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