NFL Week 2 picks: Broncos slow down Daniel Jones, Cowboys blast Giants

Week 1 in the NFL was definitely magical. What was I most surprised by? The Buffalo Bills won on Sunday night after trailing the Baltimore Ravens by 15 points in the fourth quarter, and the Minnesota Vikings won on Monday night after trailing the Chicago Bears by 11 points in the final quarter. This marked the first time since the turn of the 21st century that both “Sunday Night Football” and “Monday Night Football” featured double-digit, fourth-quarter comeback victories.

I wasn’t surprised by Daniel Jones dicing up the Miami Dolphins. As you recall, I made the Indianapolis Colts a best bet! I wasn’t surprised by the Detroit Lions looking like a completely different team without Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn either. Overall, we went 9-7 straight up and 3-2 against the spread on best bets. It should have been 4-1, but the Pittsburgh Steelers won their game by two points instead of three.

Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Top five picks ATS record: 3-2
Overall ATS record: 9-7
Straight up record: 10-6

Bet NFL Week 2 games and NFL odds at DraftKings, where new users get $300 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket. Click here to get started.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Cowboys have won eight straight meetings vs. the Giants. Dak Prescott has never lost to New York, and is 10-3 against the spread in his past 13 starts vs. the Giants. Russell Wilson’s offense looked terrible against the Washington Commanders. In fact, they ran seven offensive plays inside Washington’s 3-yard line last Sunday, and only got a field goal out of it. 

As for Dallas, the Cowboys kept it close vs. the Philadelphia Eagles on their home field in prime time. If it weren’t for that weather delay, I wonder how this game would have ended. Dak Prescott played better than his numbers indicated, and CeeDee Lamb will be out to avenge his costly drops as the Cowboys return from extended rest. 

The pick: Cowboys -4.5
Projected score: Cowboys 31-17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Who saw Aaron Rodgers throwing four touchdowns vs. his former team in Week 1? Steelers-Jets was truly the shootout no one saw coming. I’m not sure Rodgers can keep that kind of production up, but he should play well with the backing of his home crowd as the Steelers faithful welcome Sam Darnold to town.

This is the DK Metcalf revenge game, but I don’t even really care about that storyline. I thought the Seahawks’ loss to the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday was very disappointing. Not only did it occur in front of their home fans to a shorthanded rival that lost both George Kittle and Jauan Jennings during the contest, but Jake Moody also lost his job by missing two field goals! Still, the 49ers found a way to win. Darnold has accounted for just one touchdown over his last three starts, including playoffs, and threw for just 150 yards in his Seahawks debut. 

The pick: Steelers -3
Projected score: Steelers 26-16

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

The Rams are talented on both sides of the ball, and the Titans were the worst team in the NFL last season. Yes, there’s new hope in Nashville with the arrival of quarterback Cameron Ward, but his wide receivers dropped several passes last week and the offensive play-calling felt too conservative. Then, it randomly got aggressive at the end of the first half which led to the Titans surrendering their lead right before the break. Somehow, the Titans looked like the better team vs. the Denver Broncos on Sunday, yet found a way to lose by eight points. 

Titans left tackle JC Latham has already ruled himself out for this game, which makes an offensive line that struggled last week even worse. Give me the Rams. 

The pick: Rams -5.5
Projected score: Rams 16-10

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

Daniel Jones had a historic Colts debut, but he was playing the worst cornerback room in the NFL, and a Dolphins offense that looked disinterested. Let’s see how he fares against the defense that was the most aggressive unit in the NFL last year.

The Broncos absolutely played with their food against the Titans. They turned the ball over four times, and still won. Part of that was because of the pass rush, which racked up six sacks that came from six different players. Bo Nix accounted for three total turnovers last Sunday, but I expect him to rebound. The Broncos may be road favorites, but they have won 10 straight games when favored. That’s the longest active streak in the NFL. Nix is also 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in his young career as a favorite.

The pick: Broncos -2.5
Projected score: Broncos 20-14

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I was one of the few people excited to watch the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars play football last week, because I was hoping either Bryce Young or Trevor Lawrence could begin the year on a high note. Instead, both quarterbacks threw interceptions and didn’t cross 180 yards passing. 

No one is claiming the Panthers will be a surprise team in the NFC South, but they should be a bit better than last year, no? Carolina’s defense is allowing 31.1 points per game and 403.1 total yards per game since the start of last season. Both rank worst in the NFL. I made the Cardinals -6.5 a best bet last week, and they came through despite Kyler Murray dealing with some stomach issues. I’ll echo my points from Week 1: Marvin Harrison Jr. is due for a big second season (five catches for 71 yards and one touchdown in Week 1) and Trey McBride is one of the best tight ends in the NFL (six catches for 61 yards in Week 1). 

The pick: Cardinals -6.5
Projected score: Cardinals 30-20

Other Week 2 picks

Packers (-3.5) 30-24 over Commanders
Ravens (-11.5) 28-14 over Browns
Saints (+3) 16-13 over 49ers
Patriots (+1.5) 21-20 over Dolphins
Bengals (-3.5) 27-21 over Jaguars
Bills 29-24 over Jets (+6.5)
Lions 20-17 over Bears (+6.5)
Chiefs (+1.5) 24-20 over Eagles
Vikings 24-21 over Falcons (+4.5)
Buccaneers (+2.5) 23-18 over Texans
Chargers (-3) 27-20 over Raiders