Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction, preview: What to know as rivals fight for playoff position in crucial series

The bloodiest of blood rivals revive their hostilities starting Friday for their final series of the 2025 regular season. We speak, of course, of the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Aside from the usual intrigue accompanying Sox-Yanks clashes, this particularly carries with it a host of playoff implications. 

Speaking of which, here are the current American League East standings: 

Toronto Blue Jays: 84-62New York Yankees: 81-65 (3 GB)Boston Red Sox: 81-66 (3 ½ GB)Tampa Bay Rays: 72-74 (12 GB)Baltimore Orioles: 69-77 (15 GB)

As you can see, this upcoming set has implications at the top of the division, as both the Yankees and Red Sox are trying to catch the first-place Blue Jays. That’s especially significant given that the eventual AL East champ will likely secure one of the two first-round byes available in each league. As you may have already surmised, this one also matters in the AL wild card race. The Yankees right now are in top spot by, just as above, a half-game over the Red Sox, who are in second position. Meantime, the runner-up in the AL West — the Astros and Mariners are tied right now for first place — has the third and final spot. The Rangers are two games back of that final spot. This of course matters quite a bit, as the top wild card team gets to host the best-of-three Wild Card Series versus the No. 2 wild card team. Right now, the Yankees would host the Red Sox, but that’s very much subject to change. 

With those stakes laid out, here’s a look at how the essential info for this big series at Boston’s Fenway Park. Watch the second and third Yankees-Red Sox games of this series on Fubo (try for free), and follow all the games live with analysis and highlights right here on CBS Sports.

The Red Sox come into this series off a Thursday off day, while the Yankees are fresh off a three-game series against the Tigers. While the Yankees were battered in the first two games of their Detroit series, they got six innings from all three of their starters during the set. As such, their bullpen isn’t as taxed as you might think by just eyeballing the final scores. 

With all that laid out, let’s have a quick look at three things to know about this crucial series in Boston. 

Boston has dominated the season series thus far

The Yankees and Sox have played 10 times already in 2025, and Boston has won eight of those 10 head-to-head encounters. Over those 10 games, they’ve outscored the Yankees by a total margin of 56-38. That means the Red Sox have clinched the season series, and that matters quite a bit for tiebreaker purposes. 

Thanks to the swollen postseason schedule, MLB no longer plays tiebreaker games, and instead ties for division titles, wild card spots, and playoff seeding are decided by results already in the books. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. In this instance, that means the Red Sox will win any hypothetical tiebreaker over the Yankees no matter what happens in this series. If the two squads wind up tied for the top wild card spot, then Boston earns the top spot and the right to host. While it’s far less likely that the two teams of note tie for the division title, Boston would of course prevail under those circumstances, as well. 

The Yankee bullpen comes in struggling

Overall, the Yankees relief corps has been a liability this season. At present, the Bronx bullpen ranks 24th in MLB with a relief ERA of 4.54 and 20th with a relief FIP (what’s this?) of 4.21. Lately, though, it’s been even worse. Since Aug. 1, the Yankee pen has an ERA of 5.58, and since the calendar flipped to September they have an ERA of 9.51 (!), which is easily the worst mark in the entire league over that span. When it comes to the current month, we’re talking about minuscule innings samples at the level of individual relievers, but let’s note just the same that five core Yankee relievers — Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Fernando Cruz, Camilo Duval, Tim Hill, and Mark Leiter Jr. — all have ERAs higher than 10.00 for the current month. Needless to say, that trend needs to flip in a hurry if the Yankees are going to maintain their sliver of a lead over Boston. 

The Boston offense has declined without Roman Anthony

Red Sox rookie standout Roman Anthony recently suffered an oblique injury that will sideline him for the remainder of the regular season and perhaps a chunk of the playoffs should Boston qualify. That’s a major blow. Since arriving in Boston, the 21-year-old former second-rounder has slashed .292/.396/.463 (138 OPS+) with eight home runs, four stolen bases, and a WAR of 3.1 in just 71 games. He’s been the Sox’s leadoff hitter since late July, and that kind of OBP and patience at the top of the lineup was vital to Boston’s surge into playoff position following the Rafael Devers trade. 

While noting correlation does not mean causation, we’ll note just the same that the Boston offense has struggled since Anthony went down. He last played on Sept. 2, and since that time the Red Sox rank 20th in MLB in OPS and 18th in runs scored. From the time of Anthony’s June 9 call-up until he suffered that oblique injury, the Red Sox ranked seventh in MLB in OPS and also seventh in runs scored. He’s sorely missed, to say the least, and he’ll probably be sorely missed in this key series. 

Prediction

Recent bullpen struggles plus home-field advantage plus a sight edge in the pitching matchups combine for a Boston series win. They’ll take two of three, as Crochet shoves in the rubber match.