Rowan Kavner

The Mariners are hot, the Mets are not, and the playoff field is still in flux. 

After losing eight straight games before Sunday’s walk-off win, the Mets are just 1.5 games up on the Giants and two games up on the Diamondbacks for the last wild-card spot in the National League. The circumstances are similarly dicey for the Astros, who’ve fallen out of first place in the American League West and are just two games up on the Rangers and 2.5 games up on the Guardians for the final wild-card spot. 

Needless to say, even the best teams in baseball this year have some blemishes. This week’s contender rankings – which only includes contenders within three games of a playoff spot – highlights one cause for concern for every team down the stretch. 

After losing nine of their last 17 games and getting swept by the Rangers last week, I was tempted to dethrone them from the top spot here. You have to wonder if maybe they peaked a little too soon. But the first team to clinch a spot in the playoffs has done just enough to stay at No. 1 in these rankings. The health of the bullpen over the next couple of weeks is worth monitoring. Closer Trevor Megill is expected back soon, but it remains to be seen how he’ll look coming off a flexor strain. Relievers Nick Mears and DL Hall could also return sometime this month. 

It was a nearly perfect week for the Phillies, who swept a four-game series against the freefalling Mets and took two of three against the Royals. The offense has performed exceptionally well despite missing Trea Turner and Alec Bohm, but Sunday’s loss in the series finale was a disappointing showing for Aaron Nola, who was coming off six scoreless innings his last time out. He has now allowed six runs in three of his last six starts. A rotation with Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suárez and Jesús Luzardo at the top could still thrive in October, but the Philly faithful would have to feel a lot better about their chances if Nola could provide them a reliable right-handed option. It’ll be interesting to see what Walker Buehler can do for them down the stretch. 

The other AL East contenders have knocked at the Blue Jays’ door for most of the last few weeks, but Toronto continues to maintain the edge. After dropping a weekend series to the Yankees, a 5-1 week against the Astros and Orioles was a nice response. The bullpen has looked better and the bats are hot,  but Bo Bichette’s knee injury is a concern at this time of year. 

The Dodgers followed a five-game losing skid by winning six of their last seven games behind a starting rotation that should be as dangerous as any unit this October. It helps that Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernández are both heating up at the right time, but the concerns at the back end of the bullpen remain significant. Tanner Scott’s nightmare season continues, and they lack reliable right-handed high-leverage arms, but deadline pickup Brock Stewart could be back soon. 

The Central leaders in both leagues are both going through a bit of an uninspiring stretch. The Tigers, who’ve lost 12 of their last 19 games, took a series from the Yankees last week before dropping two of three to the Marlins. Most concerningly, they watched ace Tarik Skubal depart his start early this weekend in Miami. Thankfully, it does not appear his side issue is anything serious, but that’s still something to monitor. It’s hard to imagine this team making a deep run without him at full strength. 

Tarik Skubal has seemingly shaken off an injury scare he suffered last week. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

The Yankees dropped a series to the Tigers but also vanquished their Red Sox demons last week. Even as concerns about Aaron Judge’s throwing arm linger, he continues to demolish the baseball. Luis Gil is providing optimism as a third option behind Max Fried and Carlos Rodon in a playoff rotation. But the Yankees, despite having won 14 of their last 20 games, have a 7.62 bullpen ERA this month. David Bednar can only throw so many high-leverage innings in October. 

The Cubs took series from the Braves and Rays last week, so it’s fair to ask why they dropped a spot; it’s just hard to feel especially optimistic about this team right now. The Cubs have lost 11 of their last 20 games, Kyle Tucker is banged up again, and the key offensive pieces that made this club so dangerous in the first half are still trying to find their way. Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner have helped pick up the slack, but they have to get Pete Crow-Armstrong in a better place over the next couple of weeks. 

There they are. The team most expected to see when this roster was reshaped at the deadline has started to emerge during a nine-game winning streak that has them alone atop the AL West for the first time since June. There’s no time to rest, though, with the Astros and Rangers both on their heels. Eugenio Suárez hasn’t recorded a hit in more than a week, and their loaded rotation is still looking for consistency, but 14 strikeouts from George Kirby on Sunday and back-to-back one-run outings from Luis Castillo inspire more confidence. It’s also worth noting this team has struggled on the road this year (34-41) as a potentially season-defining road trip to Kansas City and Houston looms. 

The Padres missed a golden opportunity to overtake the Dodgers, who appeared to be hibernating for much of the past few months. San Diego has only won two of its last six series, and each of those two series wins were against the Rockies. The loss of Xander Bogaerts is a significant one; the offense has produced a .713 OPS in September — 19th in MLB — and deadline additions Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn have gone cold of late. The rotation, however, is trending up; Dylan Cease has looked better his last two times out, and Michael King is back. 

They had their three top starters going this weekend against the Yankees — and lost the series. There’s some concern about the viability of this rotation beyond Garrett Crochet in October, but they have to get there first. They’re now 4-6 since losing rookie phenom Roman Anthony to an oblique strain. Maybe the impending return of Wilyer Abreu will help provide the boost to get them out of neutral. 

In a year in which they’ve managed to overcome a smorgasbord of injuries, the Astros are starting to lose their grip. They’re 6-8 in their last 14 games, 25-29 since the break and are now clinging to the final wild-card spot, just two games up on the Rangers and 2.5 ahead of the Guardians. The lineup has been a below league-average group in the second half, and while Yordan Alvarez has provided a needed boost, he needs more help. 

The Astros are locked in a tight race for the AL West crown. (Photo by Michael Chisholm/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The depleted Rangers’ improbable second-half surge continued last week up until Sunday, when their six-game winning streak was snapped. The obvious inquiry: How long can the likes of Michael Helman, Alejandro Osuna and Cody Freeman continue to make up for the losses of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcîa? This team has defied logic all year, so maybe we just shouldn’t question it. Plus, we’ll get the answer soon as they begin the week with a vital three-game trip to face the Astros team they’re chasing for the final wild-card spot. 

Speaking of unpredictable squads, the Guardians have now won 10 of their last 12 games. Their starting pitching is peaking at the right time, registering the lowest ERA of any rotation in September. The question with this club is always whether there’s enough offense. How they perform against the first-place team in their division the rest of the way — six of their final 13 games will come against the Tigers — will go a long way in determining their fate. 

An extra-inning win Sunday, courtesy of a walk-off homer from Pete Alonso, snapped an eight-game losing streak. The Mets are still clinging to the final wild-card spot, but whether that win marks a turning point will depend largely on a pitching staff that has the second-worst ERA in the National League in September. It doesn’t help that the offense has been a bottom-10 group this month, too. Scary hours in Queens.  

Pete Alonso and the Mets can finally breathe a sigh of relief after snapping an eight-game skid. (Photo by Benjamin B. Braun/Getty Images)

It’s been a fun few weeks in San Francisco, but this weekend’s series loss against the Dodgers highlighted the main problem area of a club that sold at the deadline: Justin Verlander is the only member of the starting rotation with an ERA under 5.00 this month. 

The D-backs have improbably made things interesting despite a bullpen that has an ERA over 7.00 in September. After losing a series against the Giants last week, they’ll get another shot this week against San Francisco to try to make a move in the wild-card mix. A perilous road awaits; they close the regular season against the Phillies, Dodgers and Padres.

Do they deserve to still be here after getting swept by the A’s? Probably not. But the series wins against the Mets and Padres that preceded an embarrassing weekend in Sacramento still have them in the conversation. The question is whether there’s enough offense here to make things interesting. The Reds lineup ranks 24th in OPS in the second half and 20th this month. 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on X at @RowanKavner.

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