The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand going into 2025-26 and in the future?

When one contention window closes, another one opens. That’s the NHL’s circle of life, a cycle of teams oscillating between contending for the Stanley Cup and rebuilding toward their next chance. 

We call it the NHL Contention Cycle, and this is Year 2 of estimating where each team currently stands within the league’s tried-and-true pattern of build, rise, contend, fall, and rebuild.

How do we do that? By measuring each team’s core of top players, both now and in the future, via the Player Tiers and Prospect Tiers — two industry-sourced projects that aim to establish a hierarchy of the league’s best in each category.

The idea is simple: The NHL runs on star power and the best teams are the best teams because they have the best players. It’s those foundational pieces that create Stanley Cup contenders and figuring out which teams have the best collection of high-end players, now and in the future, can help inform their situation. The more Tier 1 or 2 options a team has, the better their standing.

That standing is multi-faceted, one that attempts to answer two questions simultaneously: How good is this team now and how good will it be in five years? The answer to both dictates where each team is in its contention timeline; whether its window is opening, closing or in various stages of a rebuild. 

This is where each team stands going into the 2025-26 season, with arrows denoting movement since last year.

The NHL may run on star power, but no run lasts forever. It all depends on how bright and long a team’s stars can shine — and whether there’s someone ready to step in and fill the future void.

When it comes to rating a team’s present and future, this exercise isn’t everything. Many other factors can dictate how high a team climbs. The other players on the team, the organizational prospect depth, the coach, the front office, the salary cap — they all matter too. However, when it comes to measuring a team’s ceiling, the strength of their core group matters most.

None of this is set in stone: The entire idea is that teams move within the cycle. Players and teams have the power to alter their perception and change their path. This is merely a snapshot of where each team enters the 2025-26 season, something that can be changed during the season with stronger play, better drafting, surprise breakouts and/or savvy management. The opposite is true, too. 

Using that rubric, we’ve separated each team into nine tiers based on their place within the Contention Cycle. Here’s where they land both now and in the future, which players get them there, and what their path to sustainable contention is.

You can find the methodology behind Present Rating and Future Rating at the bottom of this post.

Tier Limited Ceiling Rebuild Time Rebuilding Win Later Win Now Window Closed Window Closing Window Open Window Opening

Loading

Try changing or resetting your filters to see more.

Window Open

Present Outlook (Rating: 9.4)

Only Florida has more representation in the top 150 than Dallas’ eight players, five of which reside in the top three tiers. The Stars have built a strong foundation, one that’s made it to the Western Conference final in three straight seasons.

The addition of Rantanen is massive as it gives the Stars one more bona fide franchise player behind Miro Heiskanen. Jason Robertson and Thomas Harley have both shown the ability to play at that level and currently sit on the cusp in 3A.

What the Stars lack is a true Tier 1 player, which has arguably been the difference in their last two conference finals losses at the hands of the Oilers. Maybe another crack or two at it will finally do the trick for a still-growing core; Dallas has arguably the league’s most wide-open window. But at the top of the totem pole, that lack of MVP-level talent is a defining difference between the Stars and the two Cup finalists from the last two years.

The Stars have a deep core, but is it high-end enough?

Future Outlook (Rating: 8.6)

The Stars may not have the prospects that the rebuilding teams have, but in Johnston and Harley, they’ve got two of the best young players in the game who’ve already joined their core and will help bridge the gap between eras. Lian Bichsel looks like a potential Esa Lindell replacement as well, giving their group good variety. Heiskanen and Roope Hintz are both on the right side of 30 for the next couple of years as well.

It’s going to be a challenge for them to keep hitting on late-firsts and late-seconds at the clip they have, but they’ve put themselves in a strong position even if the draft returns start to slow down — and even after dealing Logan Stankoven.

The Stars are arguably in one of the best situations in hockey, given how strong their core looks both now and in the future. Their ability to transition between eras seamlessly has been the envy of the league, and it has the team in a great position to contend for a long time. The Stars aren’t just a problem this year — they’ll still be one in five years, too.

Now comes the hard part: putting it all together and finally getting over the hump. The Stars have made the conference finals in three straight seasons now, but have fallen short each time. It’s a reminder that the Stanley Cup is an extremely difficult trophy to win and that what Dallas has still isn’t good enough.

What the Stars need is a bit more support around their foundation (especially on defense), and for some players lower in the tiers to really pop. A step back to franchise status for Robertson, a breakthrough to that level for Harley, a massive leap from Johnston; those would all go a long way. Rantanen playing like a Tier 1 winger consistently enough to jump to that level wouldn’t hurt either.

Tier 2: Miro Heiskanen, Mikko Rantanen

Tier 3: Thomas Harley, Jason Robertson, Jake Oettinger

Tier 4: Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz

Tier 5: Esa Lindell

Tier 2: Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley

Tier 3: Miro Heiskanen, Jake Oettinger

Tier 4: Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen

Tier 5: Lian Bichsel

Present Outlook (Rating: 9.3)

As long as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl remain two of the absolute best players in the world, the West goes through Edmonton. Evan Bouchard elevating his game to franchise-worthy come playoff time also helps. That’s a big three that is simply unrivalled leaguewide now that the Avalanche are down one franchise player. The Panthers and Lightning also have three franchise stars, but neither has a 1A superstar. Edmonton has two.

The rest of the core, though, has become a massive question mark. All three of Mattias Ekholm, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins took sizeable steps back last year and are on the wrong side of 30. Another move in the wrong direction for the support core is Edmonton’s largest present concern. It can’t all be on the big three.

Future Outlook (Rating: 7.4)

The Oilers’ Future Rating holds strong because McDavid and Draisaitl are going to hold strong, but Bouchard’s emergence as one of the league’s top players at his position makes a world of difference (it’s easy to forget that Bouchard is 25 years old).

The other holdover contenders (ahem, the Lightning and Panthers) also don’t have any players who made Prospect Tiers, and while Matt Savoie and Ike Howard aren’t going to move the needle, if one of them becomes a cost-controlled second-liner for the Oilers in their cap crunch, that matters.

The Oilers are soooooo close. But close is not close enough. Not when they’ve been bested twice at the hands of the same team.

Now entering Year 11 of the McDavid era, the clock is ticking. The first step to continuing the current contention path is extending McDavid. That’s priority No. 1.

After that, it’s about finding the next wave to supplement the declines of Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins and Ekholm — all of whom are in their 30s. Can Howard and Savoie be that up front? Can Jake Walman fill Ekholm’s shoes on the back end?

The biggest X-factor, obviously, is finding a solution in net. Almost every one of Edmonton’s biggest contender threats has a goalie that made the top 150. Another year with Stuart Skinner leading the way would be a difficult choice. The Oilers can’t afford to waste another season.

Tier 1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl

Tier 2: Evan Bouchard

Tier 4: Mattias Ekholm, Zach Hyman

Tier 5: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Tier 1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl

Tier 4: Evan Bouchard

Tier 5: Matt Savoie, Ike Howard

Present Outlook (Rating: 7.1)

Progress isn’t linear, but it is a little concerning that the Devils have seemingly taken a step back in this exercise.

Part of that is the panel dropping Jack Hughes from 1C, wanting to see actual MVP-level dominance (and good health) before projecting a jump to that level. He has to earn it.

The other part is the team’s defense. Dougie Hamilton is the lone representative and his place in 5A isn’t ideal for a top dog. Luke Hughes was close to making the cut, but like his brother he also needs to earn it. How far he climbs could dictate just how competitive the Devils can be next season.

Based on the team’s core, the Devils look like a dark horse going into 2025-26. To become a true contender, the team’s top-level players will need to take a noticeable step forward.

Future Outlook (Rating: 8.2)

The Devils are in a unique spot as an organization, with a nucleus of core forwards in their early-to-mid-20s (J. Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt) and a group of young D prospects that is among the strongest in league in L. Hughes, Simon Nemec and Anton Silayev. Not even captured in the Prospect Tiers is Seamus Casey, who represents a bit of a wild-card and could have easily ranked in Tier 5C, too.

The challenge for the Devils will be to line up the timelines of their established forwards with their young defensemen. It can be hard to develop young D in the NHL while trying to win, which has already created some challenges with Nemec. But maximizing Nemec and Silayev may be the difference in setting their ceiling and maintaining their status in the Metro, especially as Hamilton ages.

If they can pull it off and manage the cap while they do it, they won’t be going anywhere anytime soon.

Tier 2: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier

Tier 3: Jesper Bratt

Tier 5: Dougie Hamilton, Timo Meier, Jacob Markstrom

Tier 1: Jack Hughes

Tier 3: Nico Hischier, Luke Hughes

Tier 4: Simon Nemec, Mikhail Yegorov, Anton Silayev

Tier 5: Jesper Bratt

Present Outlook (Rating: 6.4)

The question with the Hurricanes is the same one we’ve had for years: is their ceiling high enough? Sure, it’s not nothing to find regular-season success and win some rounds. But it’s been same old, same old against teams with more high-end skill come playoff time.

Carolina does have Sebastian Aho and Jaccob Slavin as franchise pieces, and Seth Jarvis is also close. The addition of Nikolaj Ehlers is huge and Andrei Svechnikov is still kicking around too. It just hasn’t been enough — not yet, anyway. That can change if Aho becomes a 90-point center, Jarvis takes the next step, Ehlers proves his worth in a bigger role or Svechnikov finally breaks through. There’s just too many ifs.

The Hurricanes’ oomph problem is one the franchise looks to be keenly aware of as they’re always in the mix for the biggest names. But they didn’t get Matthew Tkachuk, Jake Guentzel left and Mikko Rantanen didn’t work.

Maybe Ehlers ends up being the guy or a young player really steps up. Maybe the team’s depth approach actually works (and maybe the Hurricanes deserved another name within the Top 150) making this exercise moot. We just need to actually see it to believe it.

Until that happens, Carolina’s ability to get over the hump will always come under fire.

Future Outlook (Rating: 8.1)

The Canes have had a consistently good core while maintaining a consistently good pool for years. They’ve now added Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake to that group. Next in line are Alexander Nikishin and Bradly Nadeau. Even further down the line could be a goalie of the future in Semyon Frolov. Nikishin didn’t qualify for Prospect Tiers now that he’s 23 but because of the unique path he took out of Russia and the lack of NHL experience, we decided to poll some scouts and include him if they felt he belonged. After landing in Tier 3B a year ago, they felt a Tier 3C slotting with young D like Detroit’s Simon Edvinsson was appropriate.

Nadeau, Stankoven and Blake are all viewed comparably as Tier 3/4/5 guys who will be important pieces but not elevate the Canes past where they’ve hovered. Nikishin is the wild card. If he’s a first-pairing stud, he could make a difference before their current core ages out.

The Canes feel like the Stars in that they’ve managed to bridge between eras with these subtle age gaps between a series of impactful players (Aho/Slavin into Jarvis/Svechnikov into hopefully Nikishin/Stankoven and co.). The difference might be, though, that the Stars have Heiskanen, who is likely going to sustain longer in Tier 2 than Aho and Slavin.

And while the Canes aren’t going anywhere and we’re confident they should remain one of the Metro’s better teams in the short and maybe even medium term, there is a more theoretical question to ask about whether you can win the Stanley Cup with a core of Tier 3 players. The Canes look like they’ll continue to try to if they can’t land the big fish at some point. In fact, their future actually looks better today than it did a year ago thanks to the additions of Ehlers and Stankoven, and the emergence of Blake.

Tier 2: Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin

Tier 3: Seth Jarvis

Tier 4: Nikolaj Ehlers, Andrei Svechnikov

Tier 3: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho, Logan Stankoven, Alexander Nikishin

Tier 4: Jaccob Slavin, Andrei Svechnikov

Tier 5: Jackson Blake, Bradly Nadeau, Semyon Frolov

Window Closing

Present Outlook (Rating: 9.9)

Florida has it all: an MVP-level shutdown center, two franchise wingers, a two-way No. 1 defenseman, a stud goalie and more star support than most teams could imagine. No team is better situated to win right now than the team that’s won back-to-back titles. And there are no signs of slowing down either. The Panthers ended up with 10(!) representatives in the top 150, which speaks volumes about the reverence their roster carries league-wide.

It’s more than possible many of the team’s players are being overrated right now by a collective “Florida Effect.” Maybe the five guys in Tier 4 and 5 aren’t actually as good as their ranking. Maybe they’re beneficiaries of a rising tide. But their consensus placement here is also a testament to the fear factor the Panthers franchise currently instills.

This Panthers team, a group that’s mostly the same as the one that steamrolled four elite teams en route to another title, is a serious problem for everyone else.

Future Outlook (Rating: 5)

The cost of chasing rings is typically picks and prospects. Mackie Samoskevich is a fine young player but he was a bubble guy for the Prospect Tiers who was ultimately left off when nobody really went to bat for him. He’s also it. There’s nothing else coming and they’ve already dealt their first-round picks in 2026 and 2027.

Right now, the Panthers’ future is entirely dependent on Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart and co. sustaining as the league’s premier core. For the time being, they will be. But it won’t last forever. All good things eventually come to an end. Can they add a third ring before the clock starts to run down?

The Panthers literally just need to keep doing what they’re already doing. They’re the current class of the league and should remain at that level in the very near term.

The question is just how long the current window stays open. Their Present Rating suggests they’re the team to beat in 2025-26, but their Future Rating suggests a drop-off to wild-card caliber in five years’ time. What does that mean for Years 2, 3 and 4?

The focus has to be on the very immediate future: cement the dynasty and do it all again in the two years after that. Those are the all-in years for Florida, and if the last two seasons are any indication, the Panthers know exactly how to play their cards right.

Tier 1: Aleksander Barkov

Tier 2: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart

Tier 3: Gustav Forsling, Sergei Bobrovsky

Tier 4: Sam Bennett, Seth Jones, Carter Verhaeghe

Tier 5: Aaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand

Tier 2: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk

Tier 3: Sam Reinhart

Tier 4: Gustav Forsling

Present Outlook (Rating: 9.8)

The biggest thing standing in Tampa Bay’s way is that there’s an even better team in its own division. Based on the top of the Lightning lineup, no team is closer to the Panthers’ core going into next season. Close isn’t close enough, though, and Tampa Bay learned that the hard way last season.

The Lightning will get a chance to avenge that this season and what’s being undersold is that they, like the Panthers, are also bringing almost everyone back. That’s huge for a team that ranked second in goal differential last season and starts the year with three franchise guys and six players in 3A or higher. Only six other teams have three or more, and only Dallas has four. The tippy-top of Tampa Bay’s lineup is unrivalled in depth.

The question is how those players age going into next season. Four of the six are firmly in their 30s. Brayden Point is 29. And yet none of them slid down the tiers list going into this season based on the panel’s recommendations.

If everyone from Nikita Kucherov to Victor Hedman holds strong, the Lightning will once again be one of the league’s best teams next season. But even one player dropping off more than expected could start a domino effect that puts the Lightning at a much bigger risk than their peers.

Future Outlook (Rating: 3.5)

The Lightning and the Panthers are basically in the exact same position, with the Lightning a little further down the track and removed from having done the thing. It’s reasonable to expect the Panthers to be where the Lightning now are in a couple of years; the cupboards will still be bare, they’ll still be a top team in the Atlantic, but they likely won’t still be an unstoppable force.

Sam O’Reilly and Conor Geekie got consideration for Prospect Tiers but neither are going to be ready to make a real enough impact before the sun sets on the Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Vasilevskiy core.

How long do you keep trying to put your best foot forward and try to win another before aggressively hitting the reset button? That’s a difficult question for teams in Tampa’s situation to answer.

Beat the Panthers. That’s step one.

Tampa Bay’s cross-state rivals have been a thorn in its side during the last two seasons and that looks to be the case again going into 2025-26. Only the Panthers have a stronger high-end group than the Lightning.

That’s a big issue for the Lightning because the time is now to go the distance. They need to take advantage of Kucherov still being a Tier 1 player, Andrei Vasilevskiy still being a franchise goalie and Hedman still playing elite hockey. There’s a real sense of urgency to squeeze the last ounces of championship upside from an aging core before it all comes crashing down.

There’s no help on the way — it’s now or never. Everything Tampa Bay does has to be in service of winning it all this season. Because even after one year, things likely start getting dicey.

Beat the Panthers. Then see what happens.

Tier 1: Nikita Kucherov

Tier 2: Brayden Point, Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tier 3: Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel, Victor Hedman

Tier 4: Anthony Cirelli

Tier 5: Ryan McDonagh

Tier 2: Nikita Kucherov

Tier 3: Brayden Point

Tier 4: Brandon Hagel

Tier 5: Anthony Cirelli

Present Outlook (Rating: 8.5)

The difference between Mikko Rantanen and Martin Necas is the difference between Colorado’s Present Rating landing here and closer to Edmonton or Dallas. The absence of Rantanen is a huge factor — it’s one less franchise player that leaves Colorado third in the West’s star-power pecking order. It was the difference in last year’s first-round series against the Stars.

What the Avalanche do have is Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, both dominant 1A players capable of carrying this team to great heights. That’s something only the Oilers can also boast, giving the Avalanche a starting point 30 other teams can’t match.

Between Necas, Devon Toews and Mackenzie Blackwood, the rest of the team’s core is solid. But the Avalanche will need more off-list players to step up and play at a top-150 level in order to compare with the league’s top four. Gabriel Landeskog, Brock Nelson and Valeri Nichushkin all have that upside.

Future Outlook (Rating: 5.2)

The Avs have been nothing if not consistent in their approach: There’s MacKinnon and Makar, two potential future Hall of Famers, and then there’s everybody else. The former require a constant push for another Cup. The latter starting point has meant more and more change, and more and more picks and prospects on the move.

Six of the last seven first-round picks they’ve made have all gone out the door: Martin Kaut, Bowen Byram, Alex Newhook, Justin Barron, Oskar Olausson, Calum Ritchie. When they moved Ritchie and Will Zellers at last year’s deadline, they knew what it meant for their already dwindling pool.

Mikhail Gulyayev, who was considered for Tier 5 in Prospect Tiers, is the only first-rounder left since the Makar pick back in 2017. He’s also a sub-6-foot D in a league that’s moving away from them. There are no forwards to speak of in their pool, either.

The one real positive is that goalie Ilya Nabokov looks legit and isn’t that far away. He and Mackenzie Blackwood could actually give MacKinnon and Makar a better tandem than they’ve had to date.

Uhh, is get another franchise player an option?

That would be the best way for Colorado to get back up to the league’s highest level with Florida and Edmonton, both of whom have three franchise guys.

It’s also not a necessity — not when the Avalanche have MacKinnon and Makar as a starting point. It really is all about continuing to build around them and hope the team has enough Tier 4 or 5 contributions to go the distance. The Avalanche have six players in the top 150; another two could help fill the Rantanen void.

There are also internal solutions that can help. Necas flashed some immense offensive upside last season and while it’s unlikely he jumps to Tier 2, becoming an everyday Tier 3 winger would be big. Same goes for Blackwood, who finally realized his potential last season and could become a top-10 starter with another strong season.

As long as the Avalanche have MacKinnon and Makar playing Tier 1 hockey, they’ll contend.

Tier 1: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar

Tier 3: Devon Toews

Tier 4: Martin Necas

Tier 5: Mackenzie Blackwood, Artturi Lehkonen

Tier 1: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon

Tier 4: Ilya Nabokov

Tier 5: Devon Toews

Present Outlook (Rating: 8.2)

The loss of Mitch Marner means Toronto’s Present Rating dropped from 9.3 to 8.2 — from contender to dark horse. As was plain to see this summer, spending that leftover money on “depth” isn’t nearly as simple as some make it out to be. Having a lot of star power makes everything else go and without Marner, the Leafs fall behind the teams to beat this season. Now Auston Matthews and William Nylander are the team’s only players in the top three tiers. That puts the Leafs way behind their top competition in the Atlantic.

At the same time, as long as Toronto still has Matthews playing at a high rate, the Leafs are at least in the conversation. He’s one of the league’s strongest starting points. It also helps that the team’s supporting core has grown over the years. Matthew Knies’ emergence plus the shockingly strong play of Anthony Stolarz helps bolster the overall group, keeping the Leafs in high standing… for now.

Future Outlook (Rating: 3.4)

The Leafs haven’t held on to many first- or second-round picks and have moved Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren, Sean Durzi (ouch) and now Fraser Minten. Ben Danford may be next and is viewed as a low-upside type even if they hang onto him (as was Minten).

That leaves Knies as their only recent success story to speak of and while he’s a big one (literally), his status as the one of the game’s top power forwards is going to be put to the test this season without Marner. Easton Cowan has some skeptics despite a pretty glossy OHL career as well.

If your glass is half full, Matthews and Nylander still project to be elite players for years and Knies is a rare commodity that you have to believe still has some ceiling to grow into.

If your glass is half empty, Knies is closer to maxed out and there’s going to be even more pressure on Matthews and Nylander to perform moving forward.

The Core Four era is dead. It’s time to shift gears and that means less of a top-heavy approach. Surrounding Matthews and Nylander with more capable depth is the new goal.

Here’s the problem with that: Toronto’s two biggest threats in the Atlantic do that… but also have three franchise players, plus some immediate support beyond that. The Leafs lack the secondary core Florida and Tampa Bay possess, and without Marner they’re now also behind the eight-ball when it comes to high-end talent.

Matthews returning to 1A form is crucial to mitigating some of that. Nylander approaching the top of Tier 2 would also help. But that alone isn’t enough. The Leafs will need one of Knies or Cowan to take a massive (and unexpected) step into Tier 3, and get some depth to step up elsewhere.

The elephant in the room is that Toronto’s best defenseman — whether you think that’s Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev or even Jake McCabe — just isn’t good enough. Every other contender has a defenseman on their team that’s in Tier 3 at the very least. The lack of a true No. 1 has arguably been one of the biggest things holding the Leafs back.

Divisional competition, the loss of Marner, the lack of a No. 1 — that might be one too many problems to solve. But it’s not impossible. The Leafs have a needle to thread that starts with outlasting or besting Florida and Tampa Bay, and finding creative solutions to complex problems.

Otherwise, it’ll be 60 years and counting in two years.

Tier 1: Auston Matthews

Tier 2: William Nylander

Tier 4: Matthew Knies, John Tavares

Tier 5: Anthony Stolarz, Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev

Tier 2: Auston Matthews

Tier 3: Matthew Knies

Tier 4: William Nylander

Tier 5: Easton Cowan

Window Opening

Present Outlook (Rating: 4.5)

The Canadiens took a massive step forward last season, enough to shift their status away from the league’s perennial rebuilding teams and toward those that will be competing for a playoff spot this year.

Nick Suzuki and Lane Hutson headline the 2025-26 season as All-Star caliber players and there’s still room to grow there. Sam Montembeault has proven he’s a legit starter and Cole Caufield offers a whole lot of goal support.

That core alone probably wouldn’t have been enough to stave off regression, so the Canadiens went out and bolstered their defense group with the addition of Noah Dobson. A quality defenseman is the exact piece this team needed to stay competitive after last year’s unexpected jump.

Future Outlook (Rating: 9.8)

There’s a lot of belief out there that Ivan Demidov is going to become one of the league’s most talented wingers. That, in and of itself, raises the Habs’ ceiling.

But Juraj Slafkovsky and Jacob Fowler feel like the X-factors as to whether it can hit another level. We know what Suzuki and Caufield are at this point. We’ve seen Hutson’s impact. We’ll see Dobson’s. Michael Hage and Zack Bolduc could give them some talented complementary producers. David Reinbacher’s going to be a really solid piece of the back end, a lot like Kaiden Guhle already is.

But Slafkovsky becoming one of the league’s top big men and Fowler turning into a top-10 goalie? Those two, with Demidov, can change everything if they hit. If Hutson and Demidov both get to Tier 2, that gets you a long way there. But a third player of that caliber usually makes the difference.

There’s always more risk when you’re talking about — and relying on — the future to play out just right, but when you’ve amassed as much potential as the Habs have (ie. the No. 1 Future Rating in the league), you do raise the odds.

Still, we’ve watched teams flounder as they navigate the chapter the Habs are about to attempt. It’s hard to incorporate young talent, even when it’s high-end. It’s even harder to hit that contending window before everyone has to get paid, or to convince them to take a haircut (see: Toronto).

The Sabres have tried to build around youth unsuccessfully for more than a decade. Jack Eichel gave up on it. Who knows whether Rasmus Dahlin eventually will. That’s the risk.

But it is possible, and Kent Hughes seems to have played his cards right so far, which obviously hasn’t been the case for teams like Buffalo. No matter how high they manage to raise their ceiling, though, the Habs are compelling again and the league’s better off for it.

Tier 3: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson

Tier 4: Noah Dobson

Tier 5: Sam Montembeault, Cole Caufield

Tier 2: Lane Hutson, Ivan Demidov

Tier 3: Juraj Slafkovsky, Jacob Fowler

Tier 4: Nick Suzuki, David Reinbacher

Tier 5: Noah Dobson, Sam Montembeault, Zach Bolduc, Cole Caufield, Michael Hage

Present Outlook (Rating: 4.4)

Last year the Red Wings faced important questions regarding whether the core they were building would be strong enough. Since then, we’ve gotten some answers.

Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond both took big steps forward, entrenching themselves in Tier 3 and joining Dylan Larkin. Both flashed Tier 2 upside and one or both taking that step will be the key to Detroit jumping over the Present Rating line toward the bona fide playoff teams.

The other consideration is Simon Edvinsson, who debuts in 5B. How far he can climb, and whether another Red Wing can debut next season, can also dictate where Detroit lands. For now, based on their stars, it’s still on the outside looking in.

Future Outlook (Rating: 8.7)

The Red Wings have chosen with their drafting and the core they’ve committed to try to win more like the Blues did — as a top-to-to-bottom team of like-minded players — rather than with the star power that drove the Panthers, Avalanche and Lightning. Red Wings fans will remind you that their poor lottery luck may have forced them down that path, too, and they’d have a point.

But where they are is still where they are, and that’s with a cast of very good players and prospects but missing a Tier 1/2 guy (or three). Even if a Raymond or a Seider can move into the bottom of Tier 2, that probably won’t be enough either.

Edvinsson looks like a stud and should help them go from the playoff fringes into the wild-card as he continues to establish himself as a No. 2 D. Marco Kasper took an important step last year. Carter Bear’s going to be a real player for them in the Zach Hyman mold. Nate Danielson is on his own path to becoming an NHLer. They should have their goalie of the future in one of Trey Augustine or Sebastian Cossa.

But they don’t have a truly elite, drag-you-to-a-Cup player and they don’t have one of the very few prospects in the game who can become that. That’s going to make contending with the current powers in the Atlantic tough in the short and medium term, and leaves them behind the Habs in terms of future outlook in the long term as well.

There’s a reason the 2019 Blues were a lightning-in-a-bottle anomaly. Is it possible to win with that kind of team? Sure. Is it harder to pull off than on the back of the league’s true horses? There shouldn’t be any debating that anymore. It’s harder.

The Red Wings are going to have to be deeper than everybody else and put on their big-boy pants when it matters most.

Tier 3: Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond

Tier 5: Alex DeBrincat, Simon Edvinsson

Tier 3: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider, Simon Edvinsson

Tier 4: Axel Sandin Pellikka, Dylan Larkin, Trey Augustine, Marco Kasper, Carter Bear

Tier 5: Sebastian Cossa, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, Nate Danielson

Present Outlook (Rating: 3.3)

Arguably no team surprised more last season than the Blue Jackets. But with surprise comes hesitation regarding what’s real and what isn’t. The team’s forward core will have to prove what they did last season can be sustained and built upon.

At the very least, Zach Werenski’s rise to superstardom looks legit. Everyone surveyed agreed that if he wasn’t already among the league’s five best defensemen going into next season, he was certainly in the conversation for it. He’s blossomed into a serious franchise piece, something the Blue Jackets have not had for a long time.

That alone doesn’t make the Blue Jackets a likely playoff team, but it is a great place to start. Where the rest fall in line behind Werenski will dictate how high Columbus can climb in 2025-26.

Future Outlook (Rating: 9.4)

The Blue Jackets have a first-line center in Adam Fantilli, a high-skill potential first-line winger in Kent Johnson, a No. 1 D in Werenski who still has some staying power, and two defensemen in Denton Mateychuk and Jackson Smith who could fall in really nicely behind him and eventually take over the reins. In a best-case outcome, Mateychuk is Josh Morrissey and Smith is Thomas Harley. If one of Jet Greaves or Pyotr Andreyanov then becomes an upper-half starter, suddenly you’ve got a lot of the ingredients you need.

Cayden Lindstrom could be the ceiling-setter for the team, though. If he hits, he’s a premium second-line version of what you have in Fantilli on the first line and you’ve got an envied 1-2 punch with size, skill and power down the middle.

The Blue Jackets need their young pieces to elevate into upper-echelon versions of themselves in the league, and then use that exciting young group to lure talent to the market.

Their most unique strength might be their young goaltending depth, though. If Greaves can play like he did last year across a starter’s workload, he’ll get them to Andreyanov, who they think has a chance to be Russia’s next Sorokin/Shesterkin. Evan Gardner and Sergei Ivanov are legit young goalie prospects who were in the Prospect Tiers conversation. That could be their differentiator as an organization moving forward.

As the league struggles to find consistently good goaltending, Columbus might have a wave of strong goaltending to fall back on. Maybe it’s a Rangers-like path to contention. The Rangers haven’t gotten over the hump but if Fantilli can be their Artemi Panarin and they get stud goaltending, maybe that puts them in contention if they develop some of the rest of their high-end young players better than the Rangers did Kaapo Kakko and Vitali Kravtsov.

Tier 2: Zach Werenski

Tier 4: Kirill Marchenko

Tier 5: Sean Monahan, Adam Fantilli

Tier 2: Adam Fantilli, Zach Werenski

Tier 3: Kent Johnson, Denton Meteychuk, Cayden Lindstrom

Tier 4: Jet Greaves, Pyotr Andreyanov, Kirill Marchenko

Tier 5: Jackson Smith, Cole Sillinger

Present Outlook (Rating: 3.3)

Everyone is excited about Utah going into next season, but this exercise should help temper expectations. The Mammoth still need a lot to go right for them this upcoming year to make the playoff leap.

All four of Utah’s representatives within the top 150 have franchise upside, but none are there yet. Only Clayton Keller is even close. It will take a breakout (or two) for Utah to become a serious player this season and many panelists suggested Logan Cooley could be that guy. We just need to see it happen first.

That, or someone off the list like JJ Peterka needs to join the current four.

Future Outlook (Rating: 8.6)

There are eight Mammoth players in the Prospect Tiers and the beauty of their group is that it has a ton of variety. Cooley and Caleb Desnoyers line up as their top two centers of the future with two completely different profiles. Dylan Guenther and Tij Iginla profile as two top-six wingers, with the former looking like a first-liner. They’ve got towers on the back end in Dmitri Simashev and Maveric Lamoureux, which is the way the game is going, and another up front in Daniil But. And they’ve got one of the game’s better goalie prospects in Michael Hrabal.

The reality is that even with one of the better prospect pools in the league, the Mammoth are going to need two of Desnoyers, Guenther or Iginla to join Cooley in the franchise tier if they’re really going to put themselves into the mix with the best of the Western Conference.

It sure feels like they’re on a better path than they were in Arizona, though, and steady improvement around a really diverse group of young players should be around the corner.

Tier 3: Clayton Keller

Tier 4: Mikhail Sergachev, Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley

Tier 2: Logan Cooley

Tier 3: Dylan Guenther, Caleb Desnoyers

Tier 4: Mikhail Sergachev, Clayton Keller, Dmitri Simsashev, Tij Iginla

Tier 5: Michael Hrabel, Daniil But, Maveric Lamoureux

Win Later

Present Outlook (Rating: 1.4)

Finally, the Ducks are getting some recognition on this list. Unfortunately, it remains on the outskirts. Dostal, Carlsson and LaCombe all make their Player Tiers debuts this season, but all three reside in Tier 5. In a league where the best teams have several players in the top three tiers, a few guys at the bottom of the list won’t cut it.

All three are young enough to breakout, and the Ducks aren’t short on off-list options to do the same. A new coach can coax stronger results, too. Until it actually happens, though, the Ducks look like a likely bottom-feeder.

Future Outlook (Rating: 8.1)

The Ducks have a young group of talent that all but a few teams in the league would swap theirs for, but they haven’t yet shown that they can get the most out of their young talent and get better around them.

That they’ve already moved two top-10 picks in Jamie Drysdale and Trevor Zegras speaks to how hard it is for even top prospects to become cornerstone pieces for you at the NHL level.

LaCombe is a nice success story. Gauthier’s a real player already. The league believes that Leo Carlsson is going to become that cornerstone piece for them. But the league also feels that some of their other young players (McTavish, Mintyukov, Zellweger) weren’t getting better last year. They have to this year. Soon they’re going to have Beckett Sennecke, Tristan Luneau and Stian Solberg jostling with those guys for opportunity — of which there’s only so much to go around, especially when you add every team’s NHL vets into the mix.

In theory, it’s easy to say “The Ducks are going to take off soon.” In practice, pulling it off and getting the best out of everyone while taking steps in the standings is really, really hard. You can’t sit in “Win Later” forever, but pushing the window open is also the toughest step to take.

Carlsson’s going to have to become the player everyone thinks he can. There’s no path to contention without that. But those D are going to have to form a formidable top-four, and one of Sennecke or Gauthier is also going to have to become a premier player, because it doesn’t look like McTavish will.

Tier 5: Lukas Dostal, Leo Carlsson, Jackson LaCombe

Tier 2: Leo Carlsson

Tier 3: Roger McQueen

Tier 4: Lukas Dostal, Beckett Sennecke, Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish, Pavel Mintyukov

Tier 5: Olen Zellweger, Jackson Lacombe, Tristan Luneau, Stian Solberg

Present Outlook (Rating: 0.8)

Things are starting to take shape in San Jose, but the present still does not look pretty. Celebrini is the team’s lone representative, debuting in 3B. He’s already shown flashes of greatness; now the Sharks need a supporting cast to take shape around him.

Smith or Eklund are the best bets to make the leap into the top 150 next year, and both were considered for this year. But even that won’t be enough to be a competitive team. Based on the team’s lack of strong players, another year near the bottom is extremely likely.

Future Outlook (Rating: 9.5)

The Sharks finish second in Future Rating to the Habs largely because Montreal has more established young talent already in the NHL. But the idea of what Celebrini, Smith and Misa could become together up front is impossible to overstate. In a best-case scenario, they might be looking at a Matthews, Marner, Nylander trio of sorts in San Jose. If it plays out that way, and Dickinson becomes a stud on the back end, and Askarov and Ravensbergen give you two starter-quality goalies in net, they’ll be in a very enviable position.

Core pieces are the hardest to find, and the Sharks are one of the only teams in the league that can say they have a premium group of similarly-aged players of that level to build around.

The biggest challenge when you’ve got the true high-end types in your organization is making sure you get the cap sheet machinations right. If their core young pieces all break right, they’re all going to have to get paid and the margin for error at the edges of the roster in terms of spending shrinks. You have to be smart with where that dollar goes and where else you invest. They’re clearly invest in Eklund as a complementary star, too.

The Leafs never got the spending quite right. That’ll be Mike Grier’s big challenge in 2-3 years. Get ready for lots of questions about bridge deals and the like, Sharks fans.

Tier 3: Macklin Celebrini

Tier 1: Macklin Celebrini

Tier 2: Michael Misa

Tier 3: Sam Dickinson, Will Smith, Yaroslav Askarov

Tier 4: William Eklund, Joshua Ravensbergen

Tier 5: Yegor Chernyshov, Luca Cagnoni

Present Outlook (Rating: 0.7)

After a difficult season in Chicago, it should come as no surprise that Bedard is the only Blackhawk on the list. And even his placement in 4A isn’t ideal, given the expectations that surrounded him before his NHL debut.

Unless Bedard shows some franchise-worthy bona fides and takes some young Blackhawks with him for the ride, it’s probably going to be another very long season in Chicago. Even then, it still might be — that’s how bleak the present currently is. Only one team has a worse Present Rating.

Future Outlook (Rating: 8.2)

The Blackhawks have studs in three top-three picks with Bedard, Levshunov and Frondell. There are some who think Rinzel is a Levshunov-level D prospect now, too. They’re probably going to add a fourth top-five pick in 2026 as well.

But the consensus is also that the core group isn’t quite as strong as San Jose’s, and there are some who think there’s a wider range of outcomes for Levshunov and Frondell. If Levshunov becomes a force in the league who can take over games, and Frondell hits the Anze Kopitar/Aleksander Barkov comp that his biggest believers use, they’re well on their way.

Nazar’s emergence moves the needle a if he’s as good as the Blackhawks and USA Hockey think he is, too, and the addition of Spencer Knight improved the outlook in net.

Not captured in Prospect Tiers are Oliver Moore, Nick Lardis, Roman Kantserov, Mason West, Vaclav Nestrasil, Ethan Del Mastro, and Co., who should give them a really layered group of complementary pieces. But those are more floor raisers than ceiling raisers.

Ultimately, it still feels like where Bedard goes, the Blackhawks will go. They’ve got the makings of a really deep group of young players who will, even if Bedard doesn’t reach his ceiling, make them a good team. But if they want to recreate what they had with Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith and Co., Bedard has to become one of the league’s leading scorers, one of Levshunov or Rinzel really has to hit as a true No. 1, and Frondell either needs to become Bedard’s running mate or they’ll have to lure one in free agency.

One of those things happening isn’t enough. It takes two or three. Even with all of the speed and depth in the world (which the Blackhawks shouldn’t have to worry about moving forward).

Tier 1: Connor Bedard

Tier 3: Artyom Levshunov, Anton Frondell, Spencer Knight

Tier 4: Sam Rinzel, Frank Nazar

Tier 5: Kevin Korchinski, Sacha Boisvert

Win Now

Present Outlook (Rating: 7.3)

The Golden Knights are firmly in ‘win now’ mode and did the best thing a team in ‘win now’ mode could do: add a superstar. Enter Marner, who helps shift Vegas’ present baseline up to 7.3.

That number is probably unfair to Vegas’ chances this upcoming season as one of the league’s best teams. The Golden Knights are deep and a key source of their value comes from their next group of players just off this list — William Karlsson, Pavel Dorofeyev, Brayden McNabb and Adin Hill.

The problem with that is that contention is generally driven from the top of the lineup. Edmonton, Dallas and Colorado are going to be a problem in that regard, and Vegas got a real taste of that during last year’s playoffs against the Oilers. Vegas’ Present Rating may not accurately reflect the full quality of the team, but it does signify that the team’s road to contention might not be so clear-cut in the Pacific this season.

Marner does help with that as he gives Vegas a much-needed franchise player with Stone seemingly in decline. But as good as an Eichel-Marner duo looks, it’s no McDavid-Draisaitl. And that will always be the problem. Can Vegas’ depth bridge the gap?

Future Outlook (Rating: 2.2)

*tap* *tap* *tap* “Is this thing on?”

OK, so the Future Outlook isn’t great — so what? This is Vegas we’re talking about. In five years, the Golden Knights will have made some blockbuster trade or signing to mitigate the damage. While the Contention Cycle may show that Vegas’ future is bleak if left unchecked, no franchise does more to keep the present as rosy as possible. This summer’s Marner addition is a perfect example of that.

Yes, at some point, the Golden Knights will have to pay the piper. In five years, it’s unlikely either Eichel or Marner will remain franchise players. Finding the next superstars to replace them won’t be easy, but again, this is Vegas we’re talking about. The Golden Knights always find a way.

With that being said, something probably has to be done to address the discrepancy between Vegas’ high end and the other contenders in the West. Maybe Marner is enough for the team to lean on its depth advantage, which isn’t captured here. But more couldn’t hurt, especially with the sudden departure of Alex Pietrangelo and Stone’s decline.

Fighting the current becomes harder and harder as the core ages. The Golden Knights better make it worth their while.

Tier 2: Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner

Tier 3: Shea Theodore

Tier 4: Mark Stone, Noah Hanifin

Tier 5: Tomas Hertl

Tier 3: Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel

Tier 5: Shea Theodore, Trevor Connelly

Present Outlook (Rating: 7.2)

Arguably no team was more disappointing last year than the Rangers, going from Presidents’ Trophy winners to missing the playoffs. Their placement here, despite that, signifies why: it was a complete waste of one of the league’s best cores.

A starting point of Shesterkin, Panarin and Fox should be impossible to mess up. The Rangers are one of just four teams with three franchise players. But the rest of the team was simply that bad to completely undermine that.

The Rangers’ high-end players are good enough to be a dark-horse team again. That the rest of the team isn’t anywhere close, enough to drag down a strong core, is a complete failure on the part of management. With the team shifting even further into win-now mode after last season, the pressure has never been higher in New York.

Future Outlook (Rating: 2.6)

The Rangers’ core is getting older, with critical pieces now on the wrong side of 30 and others that aren’t far behind.

Gabe Perreault is their only high-end prospect, too, and folks think he’s got a very wide range of outcomes that could land him anywhere from middle-six playmaker and power-play skill guy with some flaws to point-per-gamer who is one of the smartest offensive minds in the game. They have bubble guys for Prospect Tiers such as E.J. Emery and Brennan Othmann, but they’ve got to win yesterday. It’s either that, or their stars defy getting older. Perreault hits in a way that Kaapo Kakko and Vitali Kravtsov didn’t, and they try to keep the window open for longer than expected.

There’s a lot of doom and gloom surrounding the Rangers, and understandably so given how last year went. Still, it’s not that difficult to squint and see a way for the Rangers to be good again.

For starters, a new coach helps and Mike Sullivan is one of the game’s best. He’s a rising tide that should have everyone at their best. If that’s led by a core of Panarin, Fox, Shesterkin — all franchise guys — the Rangers have a great starting point. A supporting core of Miller, Trocheck, Zibanejad, Lafrenière and Gavrikov isn’t bad either.

It’s the group after where there’s trouble. Fortunately, that’s the easiest part to clean up. Competent depth can take a team with the Rangers’ upside very far.

Then again … the Rangers don’t have much cap space, nor do they have much time. Given the average age of everyone involved, the Rangers are in a time crunch. The time to clean up the team’s depth was roughly five years ago and the fact that it’s still a problem is frustrating, considering just how strong the team’s top end has been.

If some of the older stars can hang on a little longer, a pop from the team’s younger support could give the team the proper runway to finally address their depth issues.

The clock is ticking, but it’s not at midnight yet. The Rangers need to hurry before it’s too late.

Tier 2: Igor Shesterkin, Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin

Tier 4: J.T. Miller

Tier 5: Vladislav Gavrikov, Vincent Trocheck

Tier 3: Adam Fox

Tier 4: Gabe Perreault, Igor Shesterkin

Tier 5: Artemi Panarin, Scott Morrow

Present Outlook (Rating: 7.1)

The additions of Gabriel Vilardi and Dylan Samberg to this year’s tiers, plus returns to form from Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, were enough to offset the loss of Nikolaj Ehlers. As long as Connor Hellebuyck and Josh Morrissey are still playing at a franchise level, the Jets will continue to be a quality team next season.

At some point a drop-off will come considering the age of everyone in the team’s core. That drop-off, though, looks unlikely to happen next season. Winnipeg still looks good. Great, however, is up for debate.

Future Outlook (Rating: 1.4)

Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele will both turn 33 this season, and while the Jets should still be a contender in the West in the near term, Hellebuyck’s not going to be in the Hart or Vezina conversation forever and the Jets don’t have prospects of their caliber who will take over like, say, Wyatt Johnston and Thomas Harley have for Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin in Dallas.

Brayden Yager, Brad Lambert and Elias Salomonsson could all end up in Tier 5 in time, but much higher than that would be a surprise for each. Cole Perfetti could take a step and end up in Tier 5 or maybe even Tier 4 if everything breaks right. But they’re going to have a tough time turning over a Tier 2-3 guy to replace the ones they have.

Of all the league’s contenders, the Jets look to be in the most precarious position. They have the worst Future Rating of the upper-half teams and rank 10th in Present Rating. The future is grim and the present still doesn’t look good enough.

That puts the Jets at a crossroads given the big Connor extension decision facing them at the end of this season. Go all-in or reset.

With the way Hellebuyck, Morrissey and Scheifele have been playing, a reset is not a realistic option. Not after the team already extended Hellebuyck and Scheifele to be Jets for life. That means it’s time to go all-in. The future is already going to be painful — might as well actually make the pain worthwhile.

Flags fly forever and standing pat won’t get the Jets there. It’s going to take dramatic action to get the Jets over the hump.

Tier 2: Connor Hellebuyck, Josh Morrissey

Tier 3: Kyle Connor

Tier 4: Mark Scheifele

Tier 5: Gabriel Vilardi, Dylan Samberg

Tier 3: Josh Morrissey

Tier 5: Kyle Connor, Connor Hellebuyck

Present Outlook (Rating: 5.7)

Look around the Contention Cycle and for the most part it really does act like one. Almost every team moved clockwise as expected. There are exceptions to the rule, though, and unsurprisingly the Capitals are one of them. This time last year, they were right there in the “Window Closed” quadrant, only to finish with 111 points — the second-best mark in the league. Once again, the Capitals beat the odds.

That is, until the playoffs happened and the team folded the second a real team showed up. And that’s where we land now. The Capitals swam against the current and turned back the clock to “win now” mode, taking the biggest leap in Present Rating. But that leap still places Washington behind 11 other teams who all have more top-end talent. Until that’s solved, the Capitals aren’t a contender.

This exercise is also not purely based on analytics either. It’s one vetted extensively by many inside the game who all came to a similar conclusion: utter disbelief that the Capitals even had 111 points last season.

While the Capitals have way more representation this season in the top 150 after such a strong season, none of their seven players were placed in the top three tiers. It’s very difficult to contend under those circumstances and while depth will probably get them a solid regular-season record, the playoffs are a different ball game.

The other concern is repeatability. There’s potential for some players — Tom Wilson, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Aliaksei Protas, Logan Thompson — to move up the ranks and increase Washington’s Present Rating if they repeat last season’s excellence. It’s just not something many inside hockey are betting on.

Future Outlook (Rating: 1.7)

Ryan Leonard and the big Protas brothers (plural) are going to be important parts of the fold. Cole Hutson and Andrew Cristall look like really promising small skill types to complement them. And Lynden Lakovic has the tools to become a talented top-nine winger and maybe more.

The Caps have a good pool, there’s no question. But a good pool is still a bit of a hope and a prayer when it’s missing that capital-G Great prospect from the very top of the draft. Even if all of those players hit and Connor McMichael takes another step, none of their very good young players are going to fill the shoes left behind by Alexander Ovechkin and John Carlson when they stroll off into the sunset. There’s more work to be done if they want the next chapter to follow the success of this one.

The Capitals pulled off one of the most impressive retools last summer, completely shifting their present trajectory. But it still wasn’t enough to make the team an actual Cup contender, no matter how loudly the fan base screamed about their 111 regular-season points.

Depth can only take a team so far. It’s hard to go deep when your best player is Wilson. As great as he was last season, he’s not a top-50 player. It didn’t cut it against Carolina with two franchise players, and it definitely wouldn’t have cut it against Florida with three. Especially when both teams can match Washington’s depth.

Can the Protas brothers be top-50 players? What about Leonard or Cristall? Can the other Hutson match his brother in Montreal? Across the board, the answer is “probably not.” And that’s the problem.

The Capitals have a high floor because of their depth. Their savvy secured them undervalued players like Dubois, Thompson and Dylan Strome capable of raising the team’s baseline. But getting a player who can raise the ceiling will be far more difficult.

Washington can keep fighting the current and hope to get a franchise player (or two) through means other than at the top of the draft. A blockbuster trade or signing would go a long way to extending the team’s ‘win now’ window, but those aren’t exactly easy to come by. By the time the opportunity is even available to them, the Capitals might get swept up in the undertow. The best path to contention might be the long way.

Tier 4: Tom Wilson, John Carlson

Tier 5: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin, Aliaksei Protas, Logan Thompson

Tier 4: Ryan Leonard, Ilya Protas, Cole Hutson, Andrew Cristall

Tier 5: Lynden Lakovic, Aliaksei Protas

Limited Ceiling

Present Outlook (Rating: 5.3)

The next step is right there for the taking in Ottawa and it happens when one (or preferably two) of Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk break through and establish themselves as franchise players. The Senators currently have a spot in no man’s land, but that’s partly because their three best players reside in 3A — rather than Tier 2 or higher. Every team ahead of Ottawa has at least two franchise players.

That’s the difference between first-round fodder and a team that can actually make some noise. The Senators are still the former until proven otherwise.

The one concern is whether or not they’re on a more accelerated timeline than the ages of their three best players might suggest. A major reason they were finally able to make the playoffs last year was Linus Ullmark’s play and at 32, it’s no guarantee how long he stays an above-average starter worthy of top 150 status.

The Senators could also use some help beyond their big three. Establishing a support core would go a long way toward the team’s goals of contention.

Future Outlook (Rating: 3.9)

Stützle, Sanderson and Tkachuk are one of the better 25-and-under trios in the league. But the Sens are going to need Stützle to go from point-per-game and into the truly elite stratosphere, and for Sanderson to become a Norris-caliber D. There are camps that think that’s coming, and it may well happen. If it doesn’t, Carter Yakemchuk, Logan Hensler and co. aren’t going to be enough to elevate them. The best-case scenario for Yakemchuk is a Brent Burns comp, but there isn’t a lot of belief out there in him reaching that. Shane Pinto developing into a Tier 4/5 guy consistently would be big, too. Their pool thins out quickly though.

Ottawa’s entire future depends on how high Stützle, Sanderson and Tkachuk can climb. But while that’s the primary concern, it’s not the only one.

All three jumping from 3A to become franchise players would be a great starting point and the higher the better. The closer each player gets to Tier 1, the higher Ottawa’s ceiling becomes. Based on each player’s potential trajectory based on comparable players, though, only Stützle looks likely to reach the coveted franchise tier — and only as a 2C player. That’s part of the reason Ottawa is once again in no man’s land despite a playoff berth last season.

But even if Sanderson and Tkachuk are both bumped up — deservedly so, if you ask our panel of NHL insiders — the Senators still fall well short of an open window both now and in the future. The reason for that is the complete lack of a support core beyond the team’s top three players. Ullmark (32) and Thomas Chabot (28) help now, Yakemchuk (19) and Hensler (18) will likely help later. But that seriously pales to the contenders now and in the future.

Look at what Florida and Tampa Bay have after their top three going into next season. Look at the future depth Montreal and San Jose are building. What Ottawa has just doesn’t compare.

The key to getting the most of Ottawa’s current era will be building a supporting cast. A legit No. 3 forward would be huge and it’s possible Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens or Shane Pinto can be that. Those three joining the top 150 would also help. But if it’s not them — and the odds aren’t in their favor — the Senators will need to look externally for more help.

Tier 3: Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk

Tier 4: Linus Ullmark

Tier 5: Thomas Chabot

Tier 2: Tim Stützle

Tier 3: Jake Sanderson, Brady Tkachuk

Tier 4: Carter Yakemchuk

Tier 5: Logan Hensler

Present Outlook (Rating: 5.1)

Perhaps we were a bit overzealous with the Wild last season. They’re good, but having them on the cusp of greatness was probably pushing it. Going into 2025-26 the Minnesota Wild are right where they belong.

Part of the drop is that the Wild had more representation last season and no one has stepped up to fill the gaps. With Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin both falling off the top 150 this season due to age-related decline, the Wild need their next wave to take charge to re-establish a proper support core. (To their credit, there was some support to include Filip Gustavsson).

The Wild also need Matt Boldy (or Brock Faber) to step up and show they’re franchise players. The top contenders all have at least two — it can’t just be Kaprizov.

There’s room for the Wild to become a proper contender and get back to the exciting level we expected to start last season. But the last year has created some questions about the team’s ceiling that need to be addressed.

Future Outlook (Rating: 6.4)

The Wild have done a nice job building out a young group of players and prospects without drafting at the very top.

Both Boldy and Zeev Buium were drafted No. 12 overall and should go top-10 in a do-over when their careers are done. Having Faber locked in with term is huge. Danila Yurov and Liam Ohgren (who was one of the final cuts for Prospect Tiers) look like they’ll be solid players for late-firsts.

Jesper Wallstedt and Marco Rossi feel like the wild-cards. If the former can return to form this season and reclaim his status as one of the league’s top goalie prospects, that’ll go a long way. But the latter needs probably needs to take a step and play his way into Player Tiers, too. If neither of those things happen, there could end up being a lot of pressure on Buium to become a top-end D in the league.

The path looks like it has to run through re-signing Kaprizov, Boldy elevating from the all-star tier into the franchise tier, and one of Faber or Buium joining him.

If Kaprizov re-signs and only one of the other two things happen, the Wild are well-positioned to be a consistent playoff team for a long time. But they probably need everything to break right to be more than that, or a playoff run where a goalie gets hot (whether that’s Filip Gustavsson now or maybe Wallstedt down the line) and they exceed expectations.

Tier 1: Kirill Kaprizov

Tier 3: Matt Boldy

Tier 4: Joel Eriksson Ek, Brock Faber

Tier 2: Kirill Kaprizov

Tier 3: Matt Boldy, Zeev Buium

Tier 4: Brock Faber

Tier 5: Jesper Wallstedt, Danila Yurov, David Jiricek

Present Outlook (Rating: 4.6)

Since Jim Montgomery took over as head coach, the Blues have become one of the league’s most fascinating teams. They’ve become actually good — but what exactly is their ceiling?

That’s the big question the team’s subpar Present Rating suggests lies underneath the surface of last year’s success. The Blues have six players on the Player Tiers, but five of them fall in 4C or lower. Robert Thomas is the lone player above that, but having the team’s best player in 3A isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement.

The Blues have depth that can get them to the playoffs with a few players that are in the conversation from 150-200. It’s also possible some of these players step up further if they prove they can keep up what they showed last year under Montgomery.

But there’s a big difference between being good enough to make the playoffs and good enough to go deep within them. Right now, the Blues look like a team closer to the former. But their trajectory from last year after absolutely nailing the dual offer sheets could mean they continue to surprise.

Future Outlook (Rating: 5.1)

In Dalibor Dvorsky, Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, Jimmy Snuggerud, Justin Carbonneau and Logan Mailloux, the Blues have amassed a deep group of young talent.

The problem they face is that most view each of those players’ ceilings as a contending team’s third-best or fourth-best forward, or third-best or fourth-best D. Top-of-the-lineup players? Yes. True No. 1 centers, or No. 1 wingers, or No. 1 D? Maybe on a playoff team if they get there with their depth. Not on a true contender in recent years other than, well, the 2019 Blues.

When it comes to the Blues, it’s important to take a lot of this with a grain of salt. The team has only played one partial season under Montgomery and if the next season goes similarly, there’s a chance a lot of these player valuations look much better this time next year.

Repeating that won’t be easy though and there’s a reason the team struggled before Montgomery got there. Part of it is a lack of true franchise talent. Thomas is close, but that’s it. And while the Blues have a lot of tantalizing prospects in the system, it would take a lot for them to jump to that level. What is already a problem now will likely only continue to be a problem later — and it doesn’t help that Thomas and Kyrou aren’t young anymore. The Blues are building a fantastic supporting cast, but don’t have the stars worth supporting.

That leaves the Blues in no man’s land: good enough to be in the playoff mix for the next five years, but probably not great enough to be a threat to go deep. Not unless a few players take major leaps. That also means the Blues also aren’t quite bad enough to obtain a potential franchise player at the draft either.

So what’s the best path forward? It’s probably staying the course: growing under Montgomery and looking for a ceiling-raiser via other avenues. Whether it’s trade, free agency or another offer sheet, the Blues need to go big-game hunting. It’s impossible not to love how the Blues played last year, but to get back to contention, they still need more.

Tier 3: Robert Thomas

Tier 4: Jordan Kyrou, Colton Parayko

Tier 5: Pavel Buchnevich, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway

Tier 4: Robert Thomas, Jimmy Snuggerud, Justin Carbonneau

Tier 5: Dalibor Dvorsky, Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, Colton Parayko, Logan Mailloux, Jordan Kyrou

Present Outlook (Rating: 3.9)

With a starting point of David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Jeremy Swayman, it should be impossible to fail. The Bruins found a way, though.

Pastrnak started slow. McAvoy dealt with injuries and struggled offensively by his usual standards. And Swayman had a season from hell after missing training camp waiting for a new contract. It’s a great example of what makes having a support core so important — they can pick up the slack if things go awry. The Bruins didn’t, and crumbled.

The Bruins enter 2025-26 with just those three players in the top 150, with McAvoy and Swayman’s standings lowered. With both players dropping in value, and no one behind them, Boston’s high end probably isn’t good enough to be a playoff team next season. Unless McAvoy and Swayman return to form, and someone steps up beyond these three, the Bruins are likely going to be on the outside looking in.

And that’s a damning indictment given what the roster looks like beyond them. If the team’s top three players alone aren’t good enough, the Bruins are likely in trouble.

Future Outlook (Rating: 4.4)

The Bruins’ cupboards, after years of empty shelves, finally have a few items stocked. And in James Hagens, one of them is hard to find. Their pool still really thins out after Hagens. William Moore, Will Zellers and Dean Letourneau are interesting, but they remain just that. Mason Lohrei has the tools to potentially become a Tier 5 guy, but his defensive results are still a long way away. Fraser Minten’s ceiling is too low to ever get there. The only player other than Hagens that was close to making Prospect Tiers was Matt Poitras, who scouts want to see take a step this season with more opportunity.

Ultimately, as the Bruins’ pool now stands, a lot rests on Hagens turning into a true first-line center and the No. 1 pick-worthy talent he was once viewed as.

If they can’t hit reset quickly around their big three, so to speak, the Bruins may equally quickly discover a proper rebuild is the only real path forward.

Those decisions are the hardest to make, especially when those players mean as much to your organization as Pastrnak and McAvoy mean and have meant to the Bruins, but sometimes that’s what has to be done.

They don’t have forever to figure it out either. Pastrnak wil turn 30 in May.

Tier 1: David Pastrnak

Tier 3: Charlie McAvoy

Tier 4: Jeremy Swayman

Tier 2: David Pastrnak

Tier 3: James Hagens

Tier 4: Charlie McAvoy, Jeremy Swayman

Rebuilding

Present Outlook (Rating: 2.5)

The dam finally broke last year on Long Island. After years of staying competitive with an aging roster, everything fell apart on the ice.

With better health, this upcoming season should be a lot better for the Islanders — but the team is still severely lacking when it comes to high-end talent. A down season from Ilya Sorokin pushed him out of the franchise tier, Mathew Barzal struggled to score at a Tier 3 rate and the team moved Noah Dobson for futures. With Bo Horvat in 4C, that leaves the Islanders with just three players in the top 150, all of whom fall on the lower end of the list.

That’s probably for the best though, given the organizational shift after a fortunate lottery win. The Islanders have finally accepted that the team’s core wasn’t good enough to go all the way. Going into 2025-26, they’re well-situated to make the best of that.

Future Outlook (Rating: 3)

The Islanders’ priorities have clearly shifted under Mathieu Darche and while a little luck landed them Matthew Schaefer, they’ve done really well to very quickly surround him with a pool that includes four other first-round picks in Victor Eklund, Cole Eiserman, Kashawn Aitcheson and Calum Ritchie.

In Schaefer, the most common projection has always been Miro Heiskanen — and maybe more. That’s a game-changer. Scouts expect each of Eklund, Ritchie and Aitcheson to become a really good winger, center and D for them around Schaefer as well.

Eiserman’s the wild-card with a wide range of outcomes and opinions. If he becomes an Alex DeBrincat type, that adds a really valuable power-play piece at minimum. If he busts like Oliver Wahlstrom and Kieffer Bellows did, that’ll hurt but they can now sustain it better than they could have before the 2025 draft.

The page has turned and the Isles should commit to adding more youth. Don’t get satisfied with the work you’ve done in the last year or so to frame it out. Keep building.

That’s their best path forward. Schaefer and co. will make them more compelling fairly quickly, but they’ve still got work to do.

Tier 3: Ilya Sorokin

Tier 4: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat

Tier 2: Matthew Schaefer

Tier 4: Victor Eklund, Cole Eiserman

Tier 5: Mathew Barzal, Kashawn Aitcheson, Calum Ritchie

Present Outlook (Rating: 2)

One thing became clear during this exercise: those inside hockey have really soured on Buffalo. With how awful the Sabres have been for over a decade, their players are going to have to actually prove it before being anointed.

Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson both earned respectful placement within the tiers, but that was it. And having just two players puts Buffalo squarely in rebuilding territory. Still. After all these years. By Present Rating, the Sabres land ahead of just six other teams.

Is it possible that we’re being too harsh on Buffalo here? As bad as the Sabres have been, seventh from the bottom is probably a bit too far and perhaps that’s one reason to suggest at least one other Sabre — Alex Tuch or Owen Power maybe — should’ve made the cut.

Or perhaps it’s a testament that what the team has built and is in the process of building just isn’t good enough. That the Sabres only have two top 150 players at this stage of the rebuild speaks volumes about the current bleakness.

This season will be all about proving everyone wrong and that means two or three Sabres have to play themselves onto the top 150. Good luck.

Future Outlook (Rating: 5.4)

Another one of the themes of this project has been that amateur scouts still have more time for Power than those on the pro side seem to. The pro guys want to see him take charge and put his big-boy pants on. And while the amateur guys have always wanted him to have more FU in his game too, they also see a 22-year-old who has played 25 minutes a night in the league for three seasons already and know how rare that is.

The league has softened on the Sabres’ pool, though. Radim Mrtka should give them another top-four stud with length to add to Dahlin and Power and give them a unique trio. But there are skeptics about Zach Benson and Konsta Helenius, and while everyone respects the hell out of Noah Ostlund’s game there are upside questions there as well.

Jiri Kulich is the interesting one, because there are some who think he is regular PP1 duty away from cranking that one-timer of his and popping more offensively. He also looks like a center after many thought he’d be a winger, which matters.

The big question folks have about the Sabres is whether they’ve got a No. 1 forward on a contending team in their group, and how they go about finding that with the challenges they have bringing players in and keeping them.

They’ve got a ton of good NHL forwards and more on the way who should be solid contributors, but Thompson doesn’t look like a true top dog and neither do Kulich, Benson, Helenius, Quinn and co. And while losing a player like JJ Peterka hurts, he wasn’t going to be that either and so it’s not worth losing too much sleep over.

They need Power to take a step in his mentality more than his skill, and they need Devon Levi to become the Dustin Wolf type some thought he could become but fewer and fewer now believe in. But even if that happens and their other young players come along nicely, they may still be searching for that superstar forward. And in the meantime, pressure mounts.

Tier 2: Rasmus Dahlin

Tier 3: Tage Thompson

Tier 2: Rasmus Dahlin

Tier 3: Owen Power

Tier 4: Radim Mrtka, Zach Benson, Jiri Kulich

Tier 5: Tage Thompson, Konsta Helenius, Noah Ostlund

Present Outlook (Rating: 1.9)

The worst thing the Flames could do is look at last year’s standings and say, “This is who we are, we’re right there.” They absolutely are not.

Dustin Wolf did a lot to mask just how rough the rest of the team looked and the team’s other representatives speak to that. MacKenzie Weegar joins Wolf in Tier 4 while Nazem Kadri, in 5A, is the only other Flame. True playoff teams have significantly more to work with at the top of the lineup. Weegar and Kadri both being over 30, where a drop-off is more likely, also plays a role.

Without much of any star power throughout the lineup, the Flames will again go as far as Wolf takes them. And that could be an issue when it comes to a future path to contention.

Future Outlook (Rating: 2.8)

Zayne Parekh and Wolf are top young players at their positions and Matthew Coronato and Cole Reschny should be top-six pieces for the Flames for a long time.

Parekh absolutely has to hit and become an Erik Karlsson-level player (no pressure) because if he doesn’t and his critics are right and he just becomes a Tyson Barrie-level talent who gives up just as much defensively as he creates offensively, suddenly you’ve still got a lot of holes. I’m very confident he’s going to end up closer to the former than the latter, though.

They need to add a premium prospect up front in the Parekh/Wolf tier, though. I think Reschny can become a Seth Jarvis, and we already know what Coronato is. That’s not nearly enough when your NHL core up front is already aging out. The Flames have a solid pool behind those four but no others that rise to their level.

Lean into scorched earth, sell folks on the youth and your shiny new building, and don’t hesitate when the road gets bumpy, should probably be the advice. Patch work while trying to get younger is the easier path to take, but it often ends up back where you started trying to scrape and claw into the playoffs. The longer you wait to really pull the trigger, the harder it gets to move your vets, too.

Tier 4: MacKenzie Weegar, Dustin Wolf

Tier 5: Nazem Kadri

Tier 2: Dustin Wolf

Tier 3: Zayne Parekh

Tier 4: Matt Coronato, Cole Reschny

Rebuild Time

Present Outlook (Rating: 4.3)

One of the more controversial aspects of last year’s version of this exercise was the suggestion that Vancouver’s window was already in the midst of closing. One year later that proclamation already looks utterly prophetic with Vancouver’s Present Rating dropping from dark-horse-worthy to not even playoff-caliber. The Canucks experienced one of the league’s sharpest drops in that regard.

A lot of misfortunes had to occur in order for that to happen so quickly. Elias Pettersson went from franchise star to ‘who even knows anymore.’ J.T. Miller was traded after a very public spat with Pettersson. Thatcher Demko barely played, and when he did he struggled. Brock Boeser played himself off the list entirely. All of a sudden, Vancouver’s elite core looks anything but, putting the franchise at a crossroads.

That leaves us with the present outlook. Quinn Hughes is still here (for now) and jumped up to 1B after being the only Canuck to prove 2023-24 was no fluke. As long as he’s still around, the Canucks have hope with a bona fide top-10 player. It’s the rest that have to fall in line. Pettersson needs to be franchise-worthy. Demko needs to be Vezina-worthy. And someone other than those two (and Conor Garland) needs to show they’re a core piece worthy of top-150 inclusion.

Otherwise, Canucks fans will be spending another stretch in mid-ville.

Future Outlook (Rating: 2.3)

In a fantasy world where all of Braeden Cootes, Jonathan Lekkerimaki and Tom Willander meet expectations, the Canucks have a two-way 2C, a top-six winger and 30-goal guy, and a top-four defenseman coming. Elias Pettersson (the other one) looks like a solid complementary young D, too, and was considered for a Tier 5C projection. But what if Cootes is a 3C, and Lekkerimaki is a flawed and streaky middle-six winger, and Willander becomes more of a No. 4-5 than a No. 2-3? Because all of those things are also very possible as outcomes in reality.

The top priority for the Canucks is keeping Hughes at all costs. Without him there is no present and definitely no future.

But the Canucks also need more around Hughes. That might be as simple as returns to form from Pettersson and Demko, but even beyond them the Canucks lack a capable support core. Even if Hughes, Pettersson and Demko end up as Vancouver’s version of Kucherov, Hedman and Vasilevskiy, the Canucks would still be missing a Point, Hagel, Guentzel, Cirelli and McDonagh. If that’s the difference, the Canucks have their work cut out for them.

That’s part of the reason the window already felt like it was closing last year when there were questions regarding a post-Miller succession plan. The hole he leaves at the top of the team’s lineup is substantial and won’t be easy to fill. Vancouver has some prospects like Lekkerimaki, Willander and Cootes, but none have even Tier 4 upside according to scouts at the moment.

Everything hinges on what happens with Hughes. If he leaves, it’s all moot anyways and the team will be forced to rebuild. If he stays, the Canucks need to do everything they can to not waste him. Hughes and Pettersson aren’t young anymore.

Tier 1: Quinn Hughes

Tier 3: Elias Pettersson

Tier 5: Thatcher Demko, Conor Garland

Tier 2: Quinn Hughes

Tier 4: Elias Pettersson

Tier 5: Jonathan Lekkerimaki, Tom Willander, Braeden Cootes

Present Outlook (Rating: 4.2)

The Kings are a perfect example of what happens when a team cuts corners through the Contention Cycle. What remains is a team that’s been first round fodder for four-straight seasons at the hands of a team with actual high-end talent. That looks unlikely to change this season.

It’s true that this exercise will underrate the full scope of Los Angeles’ ability. The Kings are a likely playoff team for what they’ve built outside their top guys. They’re deep and that matters.

When it comes to going the distance, though, they lag way behind the best of the West. As good as Adrian Kempe has become as a 4A player, it’s almost impossible to contend when a team’s best player is in Tier 4.

If he takes a leap to Tier 3 and Quinton Byfield joins him, maybe the conversation around the Kings changes. For now, it’s already not good enough and the relative age of everyone except for Byfield adds a lot of concern for the team’s current trajectory.

Future Outlook (Rating: 0.8)

The Kings have three legitimate young players in Byfield (a clear top-six center and potential first-liner), Brandt Clarke (a unique but complicated player with high-end offensive upside and a defensive game that is going to have to continue to prove itself to naysayers), and Liam Greentree (who looks like a top-nine winger who can play both sides but is still going to have to show he can be more than that).

Not captured here is also Hampton Slukynsky and Carter George, two of the final cuts in net for Prospect Tiers. Scouts expect one of them will develop into the Kings’ goalie of the future.

But their once-glossy future outlook hasn’t produced a deep playoff run and you have to wonder, now that it looks like this team won’t win in the present, whether the Brock Faber for Kevin Fiala deal was worth it. Because boy could they use a Faber alongside Clarke to build around right about now.

What happens in five years when Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty retire, and Kempe and Fiala are in their early 30s? The Kings will likely be left with a core of Byfield, Clarke and Greentree representing them in the top 150 — one player in each of Tier 3, 4 and 5. Suffice to say, it’s not good enough.

If the Stars are the best example of how to bridge eras, the Kings are a necessary lesson in how it can go awry. Without much high-end talent around Byfield and Clarke, everything depends on just how high their ceilings are. The Kings need both to be Tier 2 players and that looks like an aggressive forecast based on what they’ve shown to date. Not impossible, but unlikely.

The Kings will need to add to that core and that’s easier said than done as a perennial playoff team. Maybe it means hitting home runs on lower picks. Maybe it means a blockbuster trade or a big signing. Whatever it is, the Kings need more and they’re not exactly in a position to get it.

Something has to give here because the run of first-round futility doesn’t look like it has an end in sight, not when the West is loaded with the exact kind of high-end talent the Kings are missing. At some point, this team needs to shift gears — something that might just happen naturally once Kopitar and Doughty move on.

Los Angeles’ placement on the chart may feel unfair and it’s possible the Kings can win with a depth approach. But if the path to contention goes through the players at top of the league, the Kings are kind of stuck right now without one.

A quick retool could work and might be the best path forward, but taking a shortcut didn’t work so well the last time.

Tier 4: Adrian Kempe, Quinton Byfield

Tier 5: Kevin Fiala, Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Mikey Anderson

Tier 3: Quinton Byfield

Tier 4: Brandt Clarke

Tier 5: Liam Greentree

Window Closed

Present Outlook (Rating: 2.5)

The Predators can be a tough read because their best players tend to oscillate between good and bad seasons. The team’s three stars — Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg and Juuse Saros — are all coming off significant down years and a bounce-back isn’t out of the question. A return to form for all three (and some others from the team’s supporting cast) could allow the Predators to fight the current back toward the “win-now” side of the ledger.

Given the ages of Josi (35), Forsberg (31) and Saros (30), though, the chances of that just don’t feel likely. What we saw last year could just be the new normal for all three: the beginning of the end. The fall-off from everyone around them adds an exclamation point to that. No team’s Present Rating dropped more than Nashville’s, and the Predators will likely land at the bottom of the standings again next season.

Sure, a brief bounce-back is possible. But Nashville’s current place and direction means the Predators would only be momentarily preventing the inevitable. Should a miraculous first-round exit in 2025-26 before dropping off again in 2026-27 be the goal?

With a limited ceiling even in a best-case scenario, it’s time to rip the band-aid off and accept reality. It’s over. The window is closed.

Future Outlook (Rating: 0.4)

The Preds have as many first-round picks in their pool as any other team in the league, but they’re missing that true all-star/franchise/MVP-level young talent, which feels like it’s a tale as old as time for the organization.

Brady Martin, Cameron Reid, Tanner Molendyk and Ryker Lee all made Prospect Tiers, but Zachary L’Heureux, Yegor Surin, Matthew Wood, Fyodor Svechkov and co. were all bubble guys who didn’t quite get enough love. They’ve got a lot of young players coming who are going to play for them. L’Heureux and Svechkov obviously already have. But they don’t have a true franchise-altering guy coming. They’re betting they can win with dogs. Who’s going to be their 40-goal scorer or No. 1 D of the future, though?

Their pool is better than their Future Rating maybe indicates, but that doesn’t mean it’s good enough to really raise the bar in their next few years.

Almost no other team is situated worse for the next five years than Nashville. None of the team’s current franchise faces project to be top-150 players in five years’ time. All they’re currently doing is raising Nashville’s floor away from the top of the draft. It’s time to rip the band-aid off.

If the Predators bounce back this season, as many expect them to, there will be a temptation to keep building around the team’s aging trio. The more pragmatic approach might be to flip one (or two, or three) of them given the immense value they would likely carry as non-rentals on pre-market-boom deals.

Sure, it might be nice to watch another demoralizing first-round exit if everything goes according to plan. But it would probably be a lot nicer to watch an annual contender, and that starts with very difficult decisions like moving on from an aging core before it’s too late. (Or not trading the goalie of the future to extend the 30-year-old in the first place).

That might be too bold of an approach for a notoriously conservative league, but it might also be exactly what the Predators need to jump-start the next era. It’s that, or delay the inevitable.

Tier 3: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg

Tier 4: Juuse Saros

Tier 4: Brady Martin

Tier 5: Cameron Reid, Tanner Molendyk, Ryker Lee

Present Outlook (Rating: 2.1)

If you assume Erik Karlsson and Bryan Rust (and Rickard Rakell) are likely on the outs, Sidney Crosby in 2C is basically a living embodiment of the “Fresh Prince of Bel Air” scene where Will is all alone in an empty living room. Yes, Crosby still absolutely rules, but the rest is absolutely dire.

But because of Crosby (and, for now, Karlsson and Rust), Pittsburgh’s Present Rating isn’t quite low enough at 2.1. That puts seven teams below them and if the 2025-26 goal is a real shot at Gavin McKenna, there’s still work to do.

Future Outlook (Rating: 0.3)

The Pens have quickly filled empty cupboards with quantity. Harrison Brunicke, Ben Kindel and Rutger McGroarty all made Prospect Tiers. Ville Koivunen and Bill Zonnon were close and could appear in next year’s project with another strong season. William Horcoff’s probably going to be a nice third-line piece.

Now they’ve got to add quality — that future first-liner to wait in the wings (ideally two). Which brings us to…

Tank, tank, tank! We don’t know what Karlsson, Rust and Rakell are all still doing on the roster, but the trio’s presence is greatly inhibiting the Penguins from going all-in for Gavin McKenna. The Penguins are bad, but they’re unfortunately not McKenna bad as currently constructed.

There’s no reasonable way the Penguins can get back to consistent contention before Crosby retires (unless he plays until he’s 43.5, which we can’t completely discount). That puts them in full-scale rebuild mode where building out the next core is the one and only priority.

With Brunicke, McGroarty and Kindel grading out as Tier 5 prospects, it’s safe to say the Penguins have their work cut out for them. Championships are built off multiple pieces in the top three tiers and the Penguins are one of just three teams expected to not have any in five years.

The best way to get those pieces? The top of the draft. So again, we ask, what are Karlsson, Rust and Rakell still doing on this roster?

Tier 2: Sidney Crosby

Tier 5: Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust

Tier 5: Harrison Brunicke, Rutger McGroarty, Ben Kindel

Present Outlook (Rating: 1.7)

Matvei Michkov has joined Travis Konecny in Tier 4 and Travis Sanheim makes his debut in Tier 5. For the 2025-26 season, that’s Philadelphia’s core and you don’t need us to tell you it’s not playoff-caliber. The goal is still building toward the future and if the team’s best player is Konecny, the future remains the primary focus.

In the present, the big question is how high Michkov can climb in his second season. Even at 4C, a big jump is expected. But for Philadelphia’s purposes, it would be good to see progression toward Tier 3 or higher. The best of the best, the ones who currently land in the top two tiers, started their ascent early. How Michkov develops will be the story of the season.

Future Outlook (Rating: 2.2)

In Michkov and Porter Martone, the Flyers have two of the top young wingers in the game. In Oliver Bonk, Jett Luchanko and Jack Nesbitt (who didn’t get enough love to make the Prospect Tiers but could well play his way into next year’s), you’ve got complementary pieces at center and on the wing. In Yegor Zavragin (the very last goalie cut from Prospect Tiers) you might have your goalie of the future as well.

But even if all of those players hit their ceilings, you’re still missing a true No. 1 center and No. 1 D, the two hardest things to find — with all due respect to Sanheim, who is a first-pairing D but not a Stanley Cup No. 1.

When the Flyers committed to guys like Konecny and Owen Tippett, they probably should have entered into an even more aggressive rebuild to try to find the center of the future to play with Michkov. Without that, it’s going to be tough for them to turn this group into a true contender, even if Michkov becomes their Kucherov/Pastrnak/Panarin and Martone is a top power winger in the league, because those frontline centers just don’t hit free agency very often and you can’t count on winning one of those bidding wars.

We’re interested to see how Danny Briere and co. navigate this next phase.

Tier 4: Travis Konecny, Matvei Michkov

Tier 5: Travis Sanheim

Tier 2: Matvei Michkov

Tier 3: Porter Malone

Tier 5: Oliver Bonk, Jett Luchanko

Present Outlook (Rating: 0.5)

Is it bad if a team’s best player is Vince Dunn? That sounds pretty bad to us.

Seattle’s depth approach has floundered in consecutive seasons with last year’s 27th-place finish feeling like confirmation for what should be the obvious: this team is not good enough.

While the Kraken do have some strong players who might’ve made the 151-200 list (Joey Daccord, Jared McCann, Matty Beniers, Brandon Montour), the problem is they don’t have anyone close to the top 100. Having just a single player in 5C — a courtesy, frankly — is as rough as it gets.

With how rough the top end looks, the Kraken are a sneaky contender for Gavin McKenna, something that might finally force Seattle onto the right path.

Future Outlook (Rating: 1.9)

Kraken fans were probably expecting to see a higher Future Rating. And while there’s no denying they have a very strong group of four young centers to build around (with at least one likely to move to the wing), their future suffers from having one of the league’s most lackluster cores. They’ve got some talented potential complementary wingers coming in guys like Jani Nyman and Carson Rehkopf, who just missed out on inclusion in Prospect Tiers, too. But they’ve yet to use a premium draft pick on a D and Niklas Kokko doesn’t guarantee their future in net. (He was one of the final goalies cut from the Prospect Tiers by scouts, though, and is a solid prospect).

A top-end young D would move the needle, so that should be a real focus.

The best outcome for the Kraken in the next year would be that their season bottoms out, the ping-pong balls bounce their way, and they get lucky and get Gavin McKenna or one of the high-end D in the 2026 class.

Without that, it’s hard to see a path forward that ends in actual contention, even if all of their current prospects break just right. No team is more desparate for high-end talent — both now and in the future.

Tier 3: Berkly Catton

Tier 4: Matty Beniers, Shane Wright, Jake O’Brien

Methodology

Similar to this exercise, we compared each player’s final placement in the Player Tiers project with his projected Net Rating. That led to the following valuations for each position, depending on their tier placement — their “Tier Rating.”

Those values were then added up for each team and normalized with percentiles to a scale of 0-to-10 to create their “Present Rating.”

To get each team’s “Future Rating,” we looked at how each player from the Player Tiers (and some young players/goalies outside it) is projected to age over the next five seasons and applied that figure to their Tier Rating. We compared that number to the value for each Tier, and put each player in their corresponding future tier.

That process left us with 86 names.

With that in mind, we did the same exercise with the Prospect Tiers — assigning a Tier Rating to each one based on where they were placed. To get the 113 prospects outside the NHL to fit into the remaining top 150 — and to account for prospect uncertainty — we applied a sliding probability scale to each tier.

Their Tier Ratings were added to the age-adjusted Tier Ratings of the remaining players for each team. That collective value, normalized to percentiles on a scale of 0-to-10, gave us our Future Rating.

Each team’s Present Rating and Future Rating were then plotted together (as seen in the introduction), informing their place in the Contention Cycle.

(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Steph Chambers, Ben Ludeman / Getty Images)