CFL Fantasy Start vs. Sit: 4 must-starts and who to avoid in Week 16

Week 16 of CFL Fantasy Presented by ToonieBet means it’s time to start gearing up for the home stretch of the regular season.

With that in mind, this week’s Start vs. Sit is filled with elite playmakers who need to be in your lineup. On the other side of matters, there is a potential quarterback change that fantasy users should be mindful to avoid.

MONTREAL (6-7-0) AT TORONTO (5-8-0)

Friday, September 19
7:00 p.m. ET
TSN/RDS/CFL+

Line: Montreal (-6.5)

O/U: 50.5

Start: Tyson Philpot, WR, Montreal, $13,600 Salary

Nothing says “I’m back” like scoring 45.3 fantasy points for the 1.8 percent of fantasy users who happened to have Tyson Philpot on their rosters in Week 15. A perfect nine-for-nine, 243 receiving yards, and two majors against the Roughriders not only helped fantasy users, but the Alouettes, whose offence came to life in snapping a five-game losing streak.

Trust that Philpot’s percentage of fantasy users takes a steady climb this week. The Als face a Toronto pass defence that has allowed 25 completions of 30+ yards and an efficiency rating of 111.1. Philpot probably won’t match last week’s lofty numbers, yet he should be good to at least equal his average of 17.6 FP per game against an Argos D that has also allowed a league-high 1,634 yards after the catch, which plays well with one of Philpot’s strengths.

Sit: Kevin Mital, WR, Toronto, $10,400 Salary

With Nick Arbuckle sidelined this week, there’s some uncertainty around a passing game in Toronto that has helped carry many fantasy lineups in recent weeks, as Arbuckle turned Jake Herslow into a fantasy cheat code and helped make Dejon Brissett one of the most reliable pass-catchers in the league.

The pivot’s absence downgrades Argos receivers just a smidge, but it could be Kevin Mital who is hurt the most by the loss of Arbuckle. After a skid in Weeks 8-11, Mital rebounded with 21.6 fantasy points in Week 12 and 11 FP in Week 13 before finishing with just 7.2 FP in last week’s win over the Elks. The return of Makai Polk has also impacted Mital’s production, as the 2024 East Division All-CFL receiver has become a fantasy asset in his first two games back. All signs point toward Mital being the odd receiver out this week.

BC (6-7-0) AT CALGARY (8-4-0)

Friday, September 19
9:30 p.m. ET
TSN/CFL+

Line: Calgary (-5.5)

O/U: 54.5

Start: Keon Hatcher Sr., WR, BC, $15,000 Salary

Keon Hatcher Sr. continued his fantasy dominance in Week 15 by catching all five of his targets for 97 yards and a touchdown, giving him 20.7 fantasy points, his third game of 20+ FP in four games. He’s averaging 22.7 FP over this stretch, pulling in three of his five majors in the process while also putting up three 100-yard outings in his last six games.

Even against Calgary’s top-ranked pass defence, Hatcher is going to Hatcher. It’s the first meeting between the two West Division rivals this season. Even with the Stamps atop the league in fewest passing yards allowed (265), fewest touchdown passes allowed (14), and a league-low 10 completions allowed of 30+, it’s not going to stop Nathan Rourke from feeding Hatcher, who leads the league with 105 targets. If it’s not going to deter Rourke, it shouldn’t keep you from adding Hatcher to your lineup.

Sit: Lions Running Backs

The status of James Butler, the league’s leading rusher with 989 yards, is in serious question after he was limited in practice on Monday and Tuesday. While there is always the chance that Butler could still give it a go, fantasy users may want to reconsider relying on him to anchor their Week 16 lineups.

If Butler is indeed not atop the depth chart on Thursday, the Lions will turn to either Zander Horvath, who has just one carry for four yards in five appearances this season, or Jordan Terrell, who has four carries for 24 yards in three games.

WINNIPEG (6-7-0) AT OTTAWA (4-9-0)

Saturday, September 20
3:00 p.m. ET
TSN/RDS/CTV/CFL+

Line: Ottawa (-2)

O/U: 52.5

Start: Brady Oliveira, RB, Winnipeg, $15,000 Salary

Brady Oliveira remains an anchor for fantasy teams as he’s helped carry a banged-up Blue Bombers offence. He tallied 151 yards from scrimmage in Week 15, the third time in the last four games the reigning MOP has surpassed the century mark. That translated to 19.1 fantasy points, marking the ninth time Oliveira has scored at least 12.2 FP in his last 10 starts dating back to his return to the lineup in Week 5.

The REDBLACKS sport the league’s second-best run defence, allowing just 89 yards per game on the ground. Ottawa held Oliveira to just 64 yards from scrimmage in their previous meeting in Week 11, but Oliveira was able to score a major that helped him finish with 16.4 FP. Oliveira’s receiving skills will be the difference maker for fantasy users, as he has recorded at least four receptions in five of his last six games, with games of 100 and 73 receiving yards in Weeks 10 and 12, respectively. Count on another week of Oliveira putting up solid production.

Sit: Dru Brown, QB, Ottawa, $12,000 Salary

The return of Dru Brown to practice this week could signal the end of Dustin Crum’s run as the REDBLACKS’ starting pivot. Despite going 1-2 as the starter in place of the injured Brown, Crum averaged a stunning 31.8 fantasy points per game and accounted for eight touchdowns as his dual-threat skills harassed the Elks and Lions into a fruitless attempt to slow him down.

Brown last appeared in Week 11 and had come off a season-best 34 FP in Week 10 that was fueled by his five passing majors. He’s had three games of better than 20 FP this season, yet a return against his former Bombers teammates does not bode well for a solid fantasy outing. If Ottawa does go with Crum, he should be strongly considered. However, it appears all signs point toward Brown returning, so look elsewhere for your Week 16 pivot.

EDMONTON (5-8-0) AT HAMILTON (8-5-0)

Saturday, September 20
7:00 p.m. ET
TSN/RDS2/CFL+

Line: Hamilton (-6)

O/U: 56.5

Start: Greg Bell, RB, Hamilton, $14,000 Salary

The normally pass-happy Tiger-Cats have rediscovered the run in the last two games, with Greg Bell putting up huge numbers. Bell has scored a combined 61.8 fantasy points in that span, scoring 30 FP in the Week 14 win over the Alouettes before adding 31.8 FP in last week’s victory over the Blue Bombers. He’s scored three times, amassing 368 scrimmage yards on 42 touches.

Edmonton’s run defence has been solid, allowing 91.2 yards per game. Don’t let that keep you from having Bell in your lineup, as he has recorded double-digit fantasy numbers in each of his 10 games. While he’s not going to provide the explosive plays that this week’s counterpart, Edmonton’s Justin Rankin, Bell will continue to give fantasy users the steady production he’s delivered all season.

Sit: Kurleigh Gittens Jr., WR, Edmonton, $8,300 Salary

The Elks passing game appears to have found a pecking order since the loss of Steven Dunbar Jr. Kaion Julien-Grant has logged 15.8 fantasy points and 17.1 FP in the last two games. Newcomer OJ Hiliare has shown signs of promise, and Arkell Smith rebounded to score 7.8 FP in Week 15 after not being targeted the previous week.

That leaves Kurleigh Gittens Jr., who has failed to score double-digit in four of his last five games. Gittens Jr. has not scored a major since Week 6 while also not topping 71 receiving yards since his season-best 95-yard outing in Week 3. Cody Fajardo will keep him in the loop, but his fantasy value will continue to be muted.

CFL Fantasy Start vs. Sit: 4 must-starts and who to avoid in Week 16

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