Lynx vs. Mercury, where to watch: Schedule, scores, TV channel as Minnesota, Phoenix meet in WNBA semifinals

The top-seeded Minnesota Lynx were the only team to sweep their first-round series, and had to wait for the conclusion of Friday’s winner-take-all Game 3 between the Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty to find out who they would play in the semifinals. 

After a hard-fought contest, the Mercury eliminated the reigning champs to advance to the semis for the first time since 2021, which also happens to be the last time they were in the Finals. They’re just three wins away from another Finals trip, but will have to pull off an upset against the Lynx, who lost in the Finals last season and have been the best team all summer long. 

This is the second consecutive season that the Lynx and Mercury will meet in the postseason and the eighth time ever. The Lynx, who swept the Mercury in the first round last season, are 6-1 in their previous seven playoff series against the Mercury. 

Will the Lynx continue their season-long dominance? Or will the Mercury finally strike back in this rivalry? We’ll soon find out. Game 1 of this best-of-five set is scheduled for Sunday afternoon in Minneapolis. 

No. 1 Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 4 Phoenix MercuryGame 1: Mercury at Lynx, Sunday, 5 p.m. ET — ABCGame 2: Mercury at Lynx, Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET — ESPNGame 3: Lynx at Mercury, Sept. 26, TBD — ESPN2Game 4*: Lynx at Mercury, Sept. 28, TBD — TBDGame 5*: Mercury at Lynx, Sept. 30, TBD — TBD

*If necessary

Players to watch

Lynx: Napheesa Collier

Collier, who was named an MVP finalist on Friday, has grown into one of the best players in the world over the last few seasons. She was cruising to her first MVP award before hurting her ankle in early August, but is now healthy and ready to lead the Lynx to the trophy that truly matters. She was extremely efficient in the regular season against the Mercury, shooting 54.1% from the field in their three matchups, while also leading the defensive effort against Alyssa Thomas. 

Mercury: Alyssa Thomas

Again, this is an obvious choice, but the Mercury are defined by Thomas, who was also named an MVP finalist on Friday. She is their offensive engine and best defender, and an emotional leader, both on and off the court. Against the Liberty, she recorded her fifth career postseason triple-double in the winner-take-all Game 3, and nearly averaged a triple-double for the series. She might need to actually average one for the Mercury to pull off the upset in this series, but that won’t be easy while also trying to slow down Collier. 

Three keys to the series

The turnover battle

The Lynx had the best defense in the league (97.5 defensive rating) during the regular season, while the Mercury finished fifth (100.4 defensive rating). A major part of each team’s success on that side of the ball was their ability to force turnovers. The Lynx were second in opponent turnover rate (19.6%) and the Mercury were fourth (18.9%).

On the flip side, both teams were adept at taking care of the ball. The Lynx’s own turnover rate was 16.5%, which was tied for third in the league, while the Mercury’s was 16.9% and good for fifth. 

During the regular season, the Lynx were 23-4 when they had fewer turnovers and 10-6 otherwise, while the Mercury were 17-8 when they had fewer turnovers and 10-9 otherwise. 

Whichever team can limit its turnovers will have a big leg up in this series. Not only will the team with fewer turnovers give themselves more chances to score, but they’ll also limit the other team’s transition opportunities. 

3-point volume vs. 3-point efficiency

The 3-pointer is a key aspect of both teams’ offensive approach, but the Mercury favor volume while the Lynx favor efficiency. Here are their splits from the regular season:

Mercury

27.7

3rd

34.0%

6th

Lynx

25.4

7th

37.8%

1st

While the Mercury only took about two more 3s per game than the Lynx, the teams’ mindsets were completely different. 

Notably, the Mercury had 18 games during the regular season with at least 30 3-point attempts, while the Lynx only had nine such games. Another key difference, and one that emphasizes the issues the Mercury can get into with shot selection, was off-the-dribble attempts. 

Here’s another chart to peruse:

Mercury

1,217

305

25%

29.5%

Lynx

1,116

166

14.9%

38%

The Lynx are far more likely to have a higher 3-point percentage in this series. They have more shooters and better shooters throughout their lineup. But could Mercury’s higher-variance style produce some outlier performances? It has during the regular season and may need to again for them to win this series. 

Which supporting cast steps up?

You generally know what you’re going to get from Collier and Thomas, who will spend large portions of this series guarding each other. But what about everyone else? Which supporting cast will step up to assist their MVP candidate?

In a vacuum, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper are the third- and fourth-most talented players in this matchup, but neither shot the ball well in the first round against the Liberty. Sabally notably had a 2 of 17 performance in Game 1 and was at 31% for the series, while Copper was at 40.5% and didn’t score more than 15 points in a game. 

The Lynx’s group may not be as flashy, but Alanna Smith was named co-Defensive Player of the Year, Courtney Williams is an elite individual shot creator and Kayla McBride is one of the most reliable two-way veterans. As a collective, the Lynx have been on a different level than everyone else for the entire summer. 

The group that performs better and more consistently throughout this series will probably be the one that advances to the Finals. 

Prediction

The Mercury are an interesting team. They have as much top-tier talent as anyone in the league, and their toughness and physicality is difficult for any opponent to deal with. There’s a path to an upset here for them if they can frustrate the Lynx and make a lot of 3s. Too often, though, their offense goes into major lulls, which the Lynx will punish. The Lynx have been the best team in the league, on both sides of the ball, all season long, and have home-court advantage. At the Target Center this season they were 20-2 with a plus-16.8 net rating. The Mercury won’t be an easy out, but the Lynx are just better. Pick: Lynx in 4