TORONTO — The BC Lions have emerged as the new Grey Cup favourites.
With a dominant performance on the road against the team with the league’s second best record, Calgary, Nathan Rourke and his Lions have emerged as the top dogs (cats) to win it all.
KPMG Playoff Probability, formerly know as the CFL Simulation, is here to tell us which team is the favourite to win the 112th Grey Cup and much more.
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As always, we’ll give readers a reminder that Playoff Probability is a snapshot of this particular moment in the season, working with the data provided by teams’ records through the first 16 weeks of play.
Below is where every team stands ahead of Week 17.
Odds to Make Playoffs
TEAM
PROJECTION
Saskatchewan
C
Hamilton
>99.99%
Montreal
97.36%
BC
96.98%
Winnipeg
90.23%
Calgary
82.87%
Toronto
18.01%
Edmonton
10.86%
Ottawa
3.69%
Odds to Host a Playoff Game
TEAM
PROJECTION
Hamilton
99.99%
Montreal
95.81%
Saskatchewan
95.03%
BC
63.23%
Winnipeg
24.61%
Calgary
16.60%
Toronto
2.67%
Ottawa
1.53%
Edmonton
0.53%
Odds to Win the East
TEAM
PROJECTION
Hamilton
99.81%
Montreal
0.89%
Toronto
<0.01%
Ottawa
E
Odds to Win the West
TEAM
PROJECTION
Saskatchewan
85.69%
Calgary
3.75%
BC
6.30%
Winnipeg
4.26%
Edmonton
E
Odds to Appear in the 112th Grey Cup
TEAM
PROJECTION
Hamilton
76.83%
BC
47.35%
Saskatchewan
40.92%
Montreal
15.41%
Winnipeg
12.25%
Calgary
4.53%
Toronto
1.47%
Edmonton
0.97%
Ottawa
0.27%
Odds to Win the 112th Grey Cup
TEAM
PROJECTION
BC
34.51%
Hamilton
33.41%
Saskatchewan
18.22%
Winnipeg
6.35%
Montreal
4.97%
Calgary
1.59%
Toronto
0.48%
Edmonton
0.39%
Ottawa
0.08%
Most Likely 112th Grey Cup Matchups
TEAM
PROJECTION
BC/Hamilton
35.14%
Saskatchewan/Hamilton
31.23%
Winnipeg/Hamilton
7.63%
BC/Montreal
7.20%
Saskatchewan/Montreal
6.24%
Probability of a West Division Crossover
80.94