The Matthew Golden breakout week has finally arrived!
Yes, some of us had to wait a little longer than expected.
Matthew Golden versus the Browns in Week 3 📈
• 22 routes run
• 4 targets
• 4 receptions
• 52 receiving yards
• 34-yard reception
• 3 carries
• 9 rushing yards
The Cowboys have the worst pass defense in the NFL. Over 37.5 receiving yards is a bet. Stay tuned. 🪜 pic.twitter.com/7QSa7dkj29
— Domenic Padula (@Domenic_Padula) September 24, 2025
In Week 3, the Green Bay Packers rookie first round pick set career highs with four receptions for 52 yards in an ugly 13-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns.
Sure, Golden might have had an opportunity to deliver even better numbers and potentially seal a win for the Packers in Cleveland if he hit the burners and turned up the field on this 32-yard reception late in the game.
The more I’ve thought about this play the more I think it’s as simple as a ball thrown this far outside the hashes in college is against the sideline.
In the NFL, it’s not and Golden has to get used to that. pic.twitter.com/mCD8o4Njei
— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) September 22, 2025
Still, after he failed to capitalize on golden opportunities in his first two NFL games, it was great to watch along as the 22-year-old flashed the talent that convinced Green Bay to make him a first-round pick in this year’s draft, and cash a few bets along the way.
Fortunately, I stayed away from the Packers on my parlays and in Survivor Pools.
A collapse in Cleveland has set the stage for a potentially epic revenge game on Sunday Night Football as the AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year favourite Micah Parsons leads Green Bay against his former team.
The Packers are a 6.5-point favourite for Sunday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys.
While the spotlight is on Parsons in his return to Dallas, my eyes never left Golden heading into an appealing match-up against the Cowboys defence.
Dallas ranks 32nd in the NFL with an average of 288.0 passing yards allowed per game this season.
That’s despite a Week 1 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in which Jalen Hurts recorded just 152 passing yards.
The following week, Russell Wilson torched the Cowboys for 361 yards and two touchdowns and nearly led the New York Giants to an upset win in overtime.
Then in Week 3, Caleb Williams registered 298 passing yards, and four touchdown passes as the Chicago Bears beat Dallas 31-14.
Now it’s the Packers turn to tee off against the Cowboys defence, with the added motivation of last week’s loss to the Browns and the potential revenge for Parsons.
Dallas ranks 32nd in the NFL against Deep Passing, 32nd in Passing vs. No Pressure, and 31st in Overall Passing Efficiency this season.
Meanwhile, Golden’s route rate has gone up every week thanks in part to Jayden Reed’s injury.
All the advanced analytics indicate Golden’s numbers versus Cleveland should be considered his floor for Sunday Night Football.
Apparently, I’m not the only one who has noticed.
If you don’t read my Morning Coffee column, then you might have missed the early train for Golden props when it left the station.
I locked in Golden over 37.5 receiving yards at one notable sportsbook on Wednesday morning.
By the time FanDuel released a number for Golden on Thursday, I was staring at 40.5 as the best number.
Jokingly, I complained to FanDuel on social media that they didn’t give me any alt numbers for Golden.
Interestingly, Golden’s receiving yards prop shot all the way up to 48.5 at FanDuel just after noon on Friday.
That’s an astounding increase of nearly 30 per cent on the best opening price in market.
Apparently, it was too large of an adjustment.
Golden’s receiving yards prop has crept down from 48.5 to 47.5, then 46.5, then 44.5, and then 43.5 at FanDuel.
As of Saturday night, FanDuel’s number is the best I see on the board, with most sportsbooks sticking at 47.5.
My model projects Golden to have four catches for 62 yards against the Cowboys.
Of course, Golden has the upside to outperform that projection against a suspect Dallas pass defence.
However, he also has the potential to disappoint the way he did in Week 2 against the Washington Commanders, when he failed to catch either of his targets.
The fact that the Cowboys have been so bad against the run as well means that Packers head coach Matt LaFleur should be able to pick his poison on Sunday night.
Average Separation Score vs. Targets per Route Run through Week 3
– I refuse to believe Ladd McConkey will occupy a similar TPRR/separation space to Romeo Doubs all year
– DK Metcalf ranks dead-last in separation pic.twitter.com/ZeM7dCW0OZ
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) September 23, 2025
Nobody is going to overlook Tucker Kraft, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks in the passing game.
We could also see a healthy dose of Josh Jacobs on the ground.
If Parsons and company keep Dak Prescott and the Dallas offence in check, Jordan Love might not even need to air it out to secure the victory in Dallas.
All of that said, this match-up is too enticing to ignore the potential for Golden to deliver the best performance of his NFL career on Sunday Night Football.
Matthew Golden route rate by week:
57% – Week 1
68% – Week 2
84% – Week 3
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 21, 2025
I’ve already locked in Golden over 37.5 receiving yards, and if I hadn’t, I would feel comfortable betting Golden over 43.5 receiving yards.
Let’s add Golden longest reception over 21.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet.
I also like Romeo Doubs over 39.5 receiving as a best bet.
Finally, give me a builder Same Game Parlay with Tucker Kraft 25+ receiving yards, Jake Ferguson 25+ receiving yards, and Green Bay to win outright at -108.
After writing nearly 1,000 words on Sunday Night Football, here is the rest of my card for NFL Sunday…
NFL Week 4 FanDuel Best Bets
Sides/Totals
Vikings -2.5
Falcons ML -124
Colts +3.5
ML Parlay -140: Chargers | Texans
Player Props
International Game
Jalen Nailor over 17.5 receiving
1 PM ET Sunday
Dalton Kincaid over 34.5 receiving
Josh Palmer over 23.5 receiving
Hunter Henry over 37.5 receiving
Saquon Barkley over 13.5 receiving
Quentin Johnston over 49.5 receiving
4 PM ET Sunday
Jonathan Taylor over 87.5 rushing
Puka Nacua 90+ receiving
Sunday Night Football
Matthew Golden over 37.5 receiving
Matthew Golden longest reception over 21.5
Romeo Doubs over 39.5 receiving
Same Game Parlays (+)
1 PM ET Sunday
Chargers SGP -110: Chargers ML, McConkey 30+ receiving, Gadsden 10+ receiving
Sunday Night Football
SNF SGP -108: Packers ML, Kraft 25+ receiving, Ferguson 25+ receiving