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The Phoenix Mercury have advanced to the WNBA Finals, and now they’ll see who their opponent will be when the Indiana Fever and Las Vegas Aces battle in Game 5. This win-or-go-home contest will tip off from Las Vegas at 9:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 30, and it will be televised on ESPN2.
If you’re a fan of WNBA betting and are interested in placing a wager on Tuesday’s Fever vs. Aces Game 5 clash, you should first see what WNBA experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai have locked in for this game.
Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com — a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women’s game. Wetzel, the site’s lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women’s hoops to turn the site’s prediction model into picks. Wetzel and Barzilai went 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) during the 2024 WNBA season and posted a 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) during the 2024-25 NCAA season. In the 2023 WNBA season, they finished 238-185-1 (+29.5 units).
Here are Wetzel and Barzilai’s best bets for Indiana vs. Las Vegas on Tuesday:
Fever vs. Aces picks:Aces -8
Few teams are as good at bouncing back from losses as the Aces, especially when it comes to a winner-take-all game at home. Betting against A’ja Wilson and Las Vegas would be foolhardy in this game.
To even get to this point without Caitlin Clark has been admirable from Indiana, but the magic runs out here. Take a look at some alternate spreads as well, as the Aces may run away with this one.
Fever vs. Aces: Under 158.5 points
In a winner-take-all game, you can always expect higher defensive intensity and a slower pace. This line is a point or two lower than it otherwise would be, but it is still a couple points too high.
Indiana team total under is another way to play this game, as their offense should have a tough time in this environment with Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston as the only two players to consistently rely on. Bet on defense, and especially on the Aces’ defense.