It’s been a story-book run for our Guardians with the Tigers acting as the villains all along. Thankfully, no matter what happens, the Guardians will not play the tigers again this season. Their are ample narratives surrounding this game and season as a whole so I will maintain my focus on the matchups and my picks of who to look out for.

On the mound for the Guardians is Slade Cecconi, his 4.30 ERA on the season isn’t totally emblematic of the highs and lows he has experienced. In fact, there hasn’t been a month of the year where Cecconi’s ERA even starts with 4. Cecconi is coming off a poor start against the Rangers, but has a 2.19 ERA in his last 4 starts. Even better, Cecconi has thrown 2 quality starts in 2 games against the Tigers this season. Totaling 12 IP, 3 ER, 11 K, 4 BB. All of the runs allowed came on solo home runs, those coming from Wenceel Perez, Spencer Torkelson, and Zach McKinstry. Slade Cecconi will almost certainly not have a normal SP workload today due to his numbers on the second time through a lineup. Cecconi’s ERA jumps from 2.81, in the first time through, up to 4.25 in the second time through. With Cecconi not having to prioritize length today we may see him lighting up the radar gun a little more than usual.

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The next pitcher up for the Guardians is likely to be Joey Cantillo. Cantillo has faced the Tigers twice this season, once as a starter and once from the bullpen. He has totaled 6 IP with 1 Er and 4 K with the one run coming off a solo home run from Gleyber Torres. Cantillo is something of a secret weapon for Stephen Vogt out of the bullpen. He matches up perfectly with the Tigers roster construction with his dominance over right handed hitters. Whenever Vogt makes the call for Cantillo he will be forcing AJ Hinch to either allow his platoon LHH to face a lefty or remove key players from the game at an early stage. For what it’s worth Hinch approached Cantillo as any other lefty when he faced them in the regular season, sitting Carpenter. In either scenario, the Guardians have the advantage with Cantillo’s disgusting changeup that can frustrate righties as well as any pitch in baseball. His changeup has generated an absurd 53.8% whiff% against right handed hitters as well as a feeble .245 SLG.

With Gaddis and Cade Smith both gassed, Vogt will have to turn to the rest of his bullpen in key spots. Regardless of whether or not Smith and Gaddis’ arm health can handle pitching again today… they may be too tired to be effective. Pictured below is the rest status of the Guards ‘pen (credit: Rotowire):

Over to the Tigers side, Jack Flaherty will be taking the mound in this winner-take-all game. Similarly to Cecconi, it is very unlikely that Flaherty will see the lineup a second time. With a 2.34 ERA one time through and a 5.37 ERA two times through, AJ Hinch would be wise to not play with fire there. However Flaherty has mostly dominated the Guardians over the past two seasons with a 2.18 ERA in 7 starts despite having a 2-4 record in those games. In his most recent start against the Guardians (and overall) the Guards finally got to him a little a knocked him out after just 4.1 IP allowing 3 ER. Those runs came from a two run blast off the bat of George Valera, and an RBI single from Steven Kwan. Brayan Rocchio scored on both of those plays after tallying two hits off Flaherty.

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AJ Hinch’s bullpen is in a much better place than the Guardians. Expect to see him be extremely aggressive and keep every pitcher on a short leash. Below is the bullpen rest status of the Tigers ‘pen (Credit: Rotowire):

Key Players to Look Out For:Brayan “Playoff” Rocchio

Do I have to explain why he is a key player today? His knack for the playoffs as well as previous success against Flaherty has Rocchio primed for a signature moment.

Gleyber Torres

Although Cantillo normally dominates RHH, Torres had his number last time with 3 batted balls all having an exit velo of 93+ mph.

Erik Sabrowski

Despite having thrown in both games this series, Sabrowski will almost certainly be used out of the pen today with only 23 pitches in the last two days. Saber might just be the most effective reliever the Guardians have at their disposal today.

Will Vest

The Tigers closer is rested and ready to anchor the bullpen for Detroit. In five games against the Guardians this year, he has shut them down 4/5 times and blew up for 5 hits and 3 runs the other time.

Chase DeLauter

Flaherty throws ~50% fastball and ~50% breaking ball with almost no off speed offering. Chase DeLauter’s biggest weakness at AAA this season was off speed pitches while he crushed fastballs and breakers. Chase is set up well to be the X-Factor he was called up to be.

Kerry Carpenter

This one is pretty obvious, he is one of the best hitters for Detroit and he owns the Guardians. The pitchers will need to contain him until Vogt can eliminate him from the game.

I’m not sure how, but I am confident in this team to pull off one more miracle. How does everyone feel about today?