Türkiye’s economic calendar is set for a busy October, with a string of data and policy releases, from trade and inflation figures to the unveiling of the 2026 budget and a closely watched central bank rate decision.
According to the official schedule, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat will kick off data unveilings on Thursday by announcing September’s foreign trade figures in Ankara. In August, exports slipped 0.9% year-over-year to $21.8 billion, while imports dropped a steeper 3.9% to $25.96 billion.
That marked the first decline in imports in 11 months and led the country’s foreign trade deficit to shrink by 16.7% from a year ago to $4.17 billion, the lowest level in 46 months.
A day later, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will release September inflation data. In August, consumer prices rose 2.04% from the previous month, while producer prices climbed 2.48%. Annual inflation slowed to 32.95%, the lowest in nearly four years, while producer inflation stood at 25.16%.
A survey on Friday estimated the annual inflation dipped to 32.5% in September, while the monthly rate is expected to be 2.6%, driven by hikes in education and food prices.
Economists said price hikes for education and related services as the school year started, as well as price hikes of eggs, meat and other food basket items, will impact September inflation.
Morgan Stanley said the inflation data will be closely watched, with the central bank recently highlighting food and services-related inflationary pressures.
Eyes on central bank governor
Next week, Central Bank of Türkiye (CBRT) Governor Fatih Karahan will make a presentation before the Parliament’s Planning and Budget Committee. He is expected to brief lawmakers on economy, inflation and the monetary policy outlook.
The TurkStat will announce August industrial production figures on Oct. 9. Output had fallen 1.8% month-over-month in July but rose 5% compared with a year earlier. Construction cost, trade sales volume and turnover indices for August will follow on Oct. 10.
On Oct. 13, the central bank will release August balance of payments data. Türkiye posted a current account surplus of nearly $1.78 billion in July. Excluding gold and energy, the balance posted a surplus of around $6 billion.
The Treasury and Finance Ministry will announce September budget results on Oct. 15. The following day, TurkStat will release housing sales figures and the central bank will publish its housing price index.
Labor market data for September is scheduled for Oct. 27, while third-quarter tourism statistics will be released on Oct. 31. Türkiye’s tourism income in the second quarter rose 8.4% year-over-year to $16.3 billion.
Budget marathon, MPC meeting
Meanwhile, preparations for Türkiye’s 2026 budget are also well underway.
The draft budget law, outlining expenditure ceilings for ministries and institutions, will be submitted to Parliament on Oct. 17. Lawmakers are expected to debate the proposal in committee and then in the general assembly, with discussions likely to last until year-end.
The Presidency’s Annual Program for 2026 is also set to be unveiled during the month.
Markets will be closely watching the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Oct. 23. At its September meeting, the bank cut its benchmark policy rate for the second consecutive month.
The one-week repo rate was lowered by 250 basis points to 40.5%, following a 300-basis-point cut in July.
The CBRT had raised its policy rate to 46% in April amid market volatility following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu on graft charges. Before that, the bank had begun a gradual easing cycle in December as inflation retreated from a peak of 75% in May 2024.
Analysts will be monitoring whether policymakers continue easing as inflation moderates.
The central bank has said it will review its policy step size on a meeting-by-meeting basis and tighten its stance if there is a significant deviation in the inflation outlook from the interim targets.
The bank sees inflation dropping to 24% by the end of the year, with a forecast range of 25%-29%. The government’s newly updated medium-term program expects it to slow to 28.5% this year.
“Barring any significant upside surprises in September inflation or its components, we expect the CBRT to continue its rate cuts, but reduce the size of the cut to 200bp, from 250bp in September,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said.
“This, in turn, would bring the one-week repo rate to 38.50%.”
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