Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

RBC Dominion Securities analyst Greg Pary reaffirmed Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T) as his favourite Canadian integrated oil company with a spot on the firm’s “Global Energy Best Ideas” list heading into third-quarter earnings season, expecting “another good-looking” performance.

“We look forward to an update on Suncor’s Base Mine performance following the successful planned coke drum replacement project at U1, which came in 24 days (26 per cent) ahead of schedule and $165 million under budget,” said Mr. Pardy, who is RBC’s Head of Global Energy Research.

“Our third-quarter outlook for Suncor includes production of 844,600 barrels per day (vs. 839,600 bbl/d previously)—after inter-asset transfers and internal consumption. We estimate Suncor’s Base oil sands (excluding Syncrude and Fort Hills) production at 490,000 bbl/d (vs. 455,000 bbl/d previously) in the third-quarter (before inter-asset transfers & internal consumption), where we peg operating costs at about $25/bbl (down from $26/bbl). At Syncrude (58.74-per-cent wi), we peg Suncor’s third-quarter production at 183,500 bbl/d of SCO impacted by planned coker maintenance which began in September, in addition to Fort Hills (100-per-cent wi) bitumen production of 181,500 bbl/d (vs. 176,500 bbl/d previously) (before inter-asset transfers & internal consumption).”

Following planned turnarounds earlier in the year, Mr. Pardy estimate that three of Canada’s oil sands weighted majors — Suncor along with Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ-T) and Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T) — “saw their free funds flow (before dividends and working capital movements) generation climb 38 per cent sequentially ($1.3 billion) to $4.7 billion in the third-quarter, with share buybacks of $2.5 billion, up $1.4 billion quarter-over-quarter inclusive of IMO’s resumption of share repurchases.”

“Our updated 2025-26 operating earnings/FFO estimates reflect third-quarter actual commodity prices, our updated commodity price outlook, disclosed share buybacks and other various fine-tuning adjustments. Notably, our 2026 FFO estimates have risen substantially on the back of a 14 per cent higher WTI outlook of US$60, with Henry Hub moving down 5 per cent to US$3.80. Our updated price targets reflect the application of target multiples applied to 2026 cash flows under mid-cycle prices (US$65 WTI and US$3.75 Henry Hub gas). We have also released our 2027 earnings/FFO estimates, which reflect a placeholder WTI price of US$62.25 (pending a formal outlook later this year) and Henry Hub price of US$4.00/mmBtu.”

With that update to his forecast, Mr. Pardy raised his target for Suncor shares to $67 from $65, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $62.54, according to LSEG data.

For Canadian Natural Resources, which is his favourite producer and also a member of the “Global Energy Best Ideas” list, his target remains $62, matching the high on the Street with an “outperform” rating. The average is $52.97.

Mr. Pardy’s other changes are:

Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH-T, “outperform”) to $7 from $6.50. Average: $6.69.Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T, “sector perform”) to $117 from $115. Average: $107.80.Parex Resources Ltd. (PXT-T, “sector perform”) to $21 from $20. Average: $18.96.

Mr. Pardy’s colleague Rob Mann made these changes:

Cardinal Energy Ltd. (CJ-T, “outperform”) to $8.50 from $8. Average: $7.67.Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE-T, “sector perform”) to $9.50 from $9. Average: $9.75.

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While National Bank Financial analyst Michael Doumet thinks North American waste management companies “are who you thought they were” after a recent stretch of underperforming the broader market, he thinks fundamentals are “well positioned” heading into 2026.

“What started as a good year for the waste sector (and bad for the broader market) reversed since May as investors (i) positioned into growth stocks (AI/tariff deals/rate cuts/deregulation) and (ii) understood that recycled commodity and volume-related headwinds tactically-disadvantaged the group,“ he said. ”Since May, the group has under-performed the S&P 500 by 26 per cent. While the performance differential is extreme, there are two ‘extreme’ views that we would argue against: (i) the sector is now ‘too cheap’ and, on the opposite side of the spectrum, (ii) following several years of multiple expansion, waste multiples have peaked and are at risk of a broader de-rate. Neither are likely, in our view.

“While the sector is the ‘cheapest’ vs. the S&P 500 since 2021, it is because the market has gotten pricier (wasteco trading multiple is unchanged vs. start of 2025). Otherwise, the sector continues to ‘work’ (i.e., compound earnings). And, while the 2025 narrative has been muddied by softer volumes and lower commodity/RIN prices, turning the page to 2026 will bring with it a much more favourable setup with (i) FCF margins inflecting (more so for GFL/WM), (ii) upside risk to commodity/RIN prices, and (iii) improving volume trends (ex. event-driven volumes).”

In a research report released Tuesday titled Time to Turn the Page to 2026?, Mr. Doumet said he’s “feeling ‘ok’” about the prospects for the sector heading into third-quarter earnings season.

“Lower commodity/RIN prices and softer volumes led to two companies narrowing their 2025 EBITDA guides (RSG/WM) and one trimming (WCN) in 2Q; GFL bucked the trend with a ‘raise’,” he said. “In our view, GFL is the highest-probability-beat. While OCC and recycled plastic prices have declined since the end of July, the impact to the 2H should be nominal (less than $5-million) and, from a 2H guidance standpoint, can be overcome with stronger underlying performance and/or M&A. Looking at 2026, we view Street estimates as mostly ‘full’ for RSG/WCN, while we see upside to GFL/WM estimates as the two will benefit from outsized sustainability investments. A few things to keep in mind: (i) we estimate the California wildfires will aid 2025 volumes at WM/RSG by 50 bps, (ii) companies may build in more conservatism into its 2026 guides (given the negative revisions in 2025), despite potential upside risk to volumes/commodity prices.”

For the group, Mr. Doumet is now forecasting 2026 EBITDA growth of almost 8 per cent, which he said could “easily exceed” 10 per cent with incremental M&A, alongside free cash flow growth of more than 15 per cent, and a FCF margin expansion of 1.3 per cent to 14.1 per cent.

“Our preferred names remain GFL, SES, and WCN, but going into 3Q reporting season, at the risk of sounding over-simplistic, our tactical preference is for names with the most built-in upside from sustainability (lines up with our view of which company has most upside risk vs. 2026 Street estimates): GFL and WM,” he added.

The analyst tweaked his target prices for stocks in the sector. They are:

* GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL-T, “outperform”) to $76.26 from $78.75. The average is $74.29.

Analyst: “GFL is our preferred pick going into 3Q. As the only company that raised its guidance (despite the FX headwind, since reversed), we believe it has the highest odds of raising it again (in addition to favourable FX in the 2H, we believe the guide remains conservative). Additionally, with EPR driving higher volumes and a baseline organic EBITDA growth of ~10% (as underscored at its IR Day), we believe early guidance parameters for 2026 will be well received by investors. To us, GFL maintains the most favourable growth prospects through 2027.”

* Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. (SES-T, “outperform”) to $23 from $18.50. Average: $18.56.

Analyst: “For many SES shareholders, this is the ‘I told you s’ moment. SES ability to compound earnings through cycles has, for a long time, been underappreciated. While gradually re-rating over recent years, the IPO of WBI (Waterbirdge) appears have accelerated it. Currently, WBI trades at 12.5 times EV/EBITDA on annualized-1H25 EBITDA, while SES trades at 11.5 times on our 2025E. Going into 3Q, however, will feel like a déjà vu of the 2Q setup: (i) we are concerned SES will need to trim its guide, (ii) we think most investors already know this, and (iii) we think the Street is too low for 2026E. The one potential risk we feel less good (and is hard to handicap) is the timing of the metal recycling recovery (could drag into 2026?).”

* Waste Connections Inc. (WCN-N/WCN-T, “outperform”) to US$196 from US$211. Average: US$209.34.

Analyst: “Year-to-date, WCN’s premium multiple vs. WM/RSG has compressed 1.0 times. We attribute the relative under-performance to continued concerns to Chiquita and soft volume trends. On the former, we believe Chiquita will remain contained to an incremental cost of $150-million in 2025 and $50-million in 2026 (as guided). For volumes, we expect a gradual recovery as WCN is receiving little (to no) help from the macro. While we see some downside risk to Street estimates for 2026 EBITDA (due to volume trends), we believe WCN’s superior FCF margin, as the impact from Chiquita winds down, and ability to redeploy into accretive M&A will help it recapture its premium multiple.”

* Republic Services Inc. (RSG-N, “sector perform”) to US$243 from US$270. Average: US$260.86.

* Waste Management Inc. (WM-N, “sector perform”) to US$243 from US$250. Average: US$255.27.

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In a separate client note titled In the Process of All Coming Together, Mr. Doumet said he thinks 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T) still has “a few tricks up its sleeves” and sees upside to both its 2025 guidance and the Street’s expectations.

“There were several reasons to be bullish at the start of 2025: the company was poised for (i) potential upsizing of contract with FSLR (done), (ii) upside to its 2025 guide (more to go), and (iii) potential M&A catalysts (before year-end?),“ he sai. ”While VNP raised its guidance in 2Q, we believe there to be a high likelihood that it will do so again in 3Q, in part because the guide still appears too conservative relative to its revenue momentum (in Specialty Semiconductors) and cost favourability (in Performance Materials). VNP guided for 2025 EBITDA of $65-million to $70-million. We think it will likely land above $80-million (vs. Street at $77-million). Maybe above $85-million?”

Alongside a potential guidance raise, Mr. Doumet thinks the Montreal-based producer of specialty semiconductors and performance materials could also be poised for gains from M&A activity.

“Continued decoupling of critical supply chains in the West from China has been more than a thematic driver for VNP; fundamentally, it has led to accelerating growth and increased revenue visibility,” he explained. “Its Renewable Energy (FSLR) and Space Solar Cells (AZUR) segments, which account for approximately 2/3 of its sales, have a strong line of sight for revenue growth of 20 per cent in 2026 and 10 per cnet in 2027. Much of VNP’s strengths lie in its ability to purchase degraded resources containing low grades of critical materials from smelters, refiners, mines, customer waste, etc. and refining them. Prices of certain minor metals have risen dramatically so far in 2025, but VNP is able to source them in the quantities needed and cost effectively (i.e., it does not source germanium from China; meanwhile germanium is increasingly in tight due to China’s export restrictions). With organic growth supercharged, its M&A funding capacity is on the rise, matching management’s desire, we think, to acquire complementary businesses. We estimate VNP’s over $100-milion of dry powder as at 3Q (assuming less than 2.5 times pro forma debt) rises in excess of $150-milllionby 4Q26.”

Seeing a “path of least resistance” for its shares, Mr. Doumet increased his target to $21 from $17, reiterating an “outperform” rating. The average is currently $19.50.

“VNP shares are up over 130 per cent year-to-date, consisting of multiple expansion of 75 per cent and positive Street revisions of 30 per cent,” he said. “Given what we believe to be near-term catalyst (more beats and M&A) and its favourable positioning, we raised our estimates, valuation multiple (to 15 times EV/EBITDA from 14.5 times), rolled forward to our 2027E, and raised our target price.”

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After a volatile start as a publicly traded company, TD Cowen analyst Michael Van Aelst now sees Canada Packers Inc. (CPKR-T) sitting closer to whether he thought it would be.

While cautioning “more downside is possible,” he now sees a 44-per-cent total return to his $20 price target for its shares, leading him to assign it a “buy” recommendation.

Maple Leaf Foods spins off its pork business to focus on high-protein goods

“CPKR shares have now traded for three days, with volatility and the share price declining each day,” he said in a note released late Monday. “Seeing the share price rise to $24 in the early stages of Day 1 trading was certainly hard to explain. The movement since then is more representative of what we were hearing from a number of MFI shareholders pre-spin — i.e. that some were looking to liquidate positions in what they viewed as the most volatile part of MFI’s business. This pattern may continue in the short term considering the relatively low volumes and incremental pressure from its anticipated removal from the Composite Index in December (400K shares supply).

“The current share price represents 4.7 times our NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA, a valuation we find attractive as it represents an estimated 5.8-per-cent dividend yield, a 20-per-cent FCF yield (before a WC release NTM), and a meaningful discount to the 5.4 times peer group average (range: 4.4-6.4 times). It just may take time for CPKR to settle.”

Mr. Van Aelst now thinks the company’s “could provide some support.”

“We expect a 29-per-cent jump in adj EBITDA on a 4-per-cent increase in hogs processed and very healthy pork markets during Q3 as the pork cutout price increased 16 per cent year-over-year and 11 per cent sequentially,” he said. “Our CPKR ‘barometer’ — which is our main indicator of CPKR’s profitability and factors in the vertically integrated spread for the 45 per cent of hogs raised and just the packer spread for the 55 per cent of hogs purchased from 3rd parties — averaged US$17/cwt for Jul/Aug, vs. US$11/cwt LY (and the 10-year Q3 average of US $13). We have assumed that some of these pure market factor benefits are countered by both the company’s hedging policy — designed to keep margins within a 10-11% range as often as possible — and contract pricing on a portion of the business (which creates a lag in recognizing pork price movements). All in, we see EBITDA margin reaching 11.1 per cent vs. a PF 10.4 per cent/9.8-per-cent LY/LQ.”

Mr. Van Aelst remains the lone analyst to assign a target to the Toronto-based company’s shares.

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National Bank Financial analyst Travis Wood thinks Tenaz Energy Corp.’s acquisition of a private company with working interests in the ‘Gateway to the Ems’ (GEMS) North Sea project for cash proceeds of $323-million and $17-million in common shares is consistent with its “intention to continue to consolidate core operating areas to create value.”

Shares of the Calgary-based company soared 31.7 per cent on Monday following the premarket announcement of the deal, which he thinks it “provides inventory runway, increased exposure to TTF and reduces corporate unit operating costs and unit G&A costs.” Tenaz also raised its full-year production guidance alongside an increase to its capital spend.

“GEMS sits on the boundary of the Dutch and German North Sea and provides the company with enhanced exposure to lucrative European natural gas markets,” said Mr. Wood. “The deal adds 3,200 boe/d [barrels of oil equivalent per day] of net production in 2025, with production from the assets expected to ramp to around 7,000 boe/d in 2026. Furthermore, the transaction provides TNZ with future development opportunities, including working interest in five highly prospective licenses (three in NL and two in DEU), with an associated after-tax NPV10 of $546 million assigned to the resource so far (only 3 of 14 exploration prospects have been evaluated economically at this time).”

“Pro forma, the deal supports a 51-per-cent boost to cash flow, 39-per-cent uplift to production and an increase to 2P reserves of 23 per cent. Implied valuation of 2.1 times 2026 estimated CF should backstop continued momentum as Tenaz continues to unlock value through operational synergies as well (TNZ sees existing multi-year production growth, with opportunities to further bolster capacity over time).”

Keeping an “outperform” rating, Mr. Wood hiked his target to $32 from $24. The average is $28.13.

“Following another logical acquisition in a core operating area and building off of the positive operational momentum the team continues to unlock, we are expanding our target multiple to 4.0 times (from 3.5 times) to reflect our view that Tenaz continues to build a bigger, lower risk business (deal already having closed removes execution risk around the deal),” he explained.

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In other analyst actions:

* Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk hiked his Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T) target to $71 from $60, exceeding the $59.66 average, with a “buy” rating.

* Baird’s Colin Sebastian raised his target for Shopify Inc. (SHOP-N, SHOP-T) to US$170 from US$160 with an “outperform” rating. The average is US$160.21.

* With news of a strategic investment from the U.S. government, TD Cowen’s Craig Hutchison raise his Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ-T) target to $5.50 from $2.25 with a “hold” rating. The average is $2.80.