How did Week 6 of the NFL season impact the projected 2026 draft order?

To get an update on where things stand, we turn to Austin Mock’s projections. Mock projects the score for every game and the final winning percentage for every team using his NFL betting model.

The model phases out older data and uses this year’s data as the season progresses. The simulation then runs 100,000 times after each day of games to give us, in this case, our projected top 10 draft order, plus each team’s projected win total and playoff chances.

Here’s our latest projected top 10:

Projected top 10 (as of Oct. 14)

Here are some thoughts about our latest top 10 projection:

1. So … which QB do you like for the Jets?

Ultimately, there might not be a quarterback atop the rankings of our in-house draft expert, Dane Brugler — he’s been high on Caleb Downs, Rueben Bain Jr., Arvell Reese, Spencer Fano and Francis Mauigoa, among others. However, we know how drastically desperation at the game’s most crucial position can shift a franchise’s draft plans, and it’s fair to say the New York Jets are at that point.

Even though Aaron Glenn brushed off the possibility of benching Justin Fields (and the Jets gave Fields $30 million guaranteed this past offseason), there might not be a mock draft between now and April that has New York taking something other than a quarterback.

The tricky part: There’s no clear QB1 in this class. Brugler’s updated positional rankings had Oregon’s Dante Moore, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza in the top three, respectively, and LSU’s Garrett Nussemeier or Alabama’s Ty Simpson could also climb. Would any of those players move the needle enough for the Jets? Will another quarterback prospect emerge down the stretch?

We’ll see. The Jets need something to break their way.

2. Don’t bury Baltimore just yet

Sure, the Baltimore Ravens are in an awful spot right now, having lost four straight to drop to 1-5. It’ll be a long road back to contention this season, even if banged-up QB Lamar Jackson can return to the lineup following a Week 7 bye.

However, our projections suggest there might yet be reason to buy Baltimore. Even in their current malaise, the Ravens still have a projected win total of 8.2, with a 37.9 percent shot at a playoff berth and a relatively healthy 24.5 percent chance to win the division. The latter is well off Pittsburgh’s number (73.4), but the Steelers are already 4-1.

Following a Week 8 home game against Chicago, four of the Ravens’ next five games are against teams projected to finish with top 10 picks: Miami, Cleveland, the Jets and Cincinnati. The Ravens won’t face the division-leading Steelers until Dec. 7, presumably after Baltimore has added some key pieces back.

Four teams in NFL history have made the playoffs after starting the season 1-5, including Washington in 2020 (albeit at 7-9 by winning a dreadful NFC East). It’s a long shot that Baltimore can pull it off … but not quite as long as one might believe.

3. Welcome to the top 10: Cincinnati

The Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals showed some signs of life with Joe Flacco at the helm Sunday, but they’ve now lost four straight and will be without injured TE Mike Gesicki for an extended period of time. As you can see in the numbers above, Mock’s projection just isn’t feeling it for Cincinnati right now. The Bengals’ projected win total of 5.3 is lower than those of New Orleans (5.5) and Cleveland (5.7), despite the Bengals currently holding one more win than either team.

It might give Bengals fans some solace that the last two times their team picked in the top 10 (2020 and 2021), it came away with Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. On the other hand, what’s it say about the current direction of the franchise — healthy Burrow or not — that Cincinnati could wind up back in this spot?