NFL betting, odds, lines: Betting trends to know for Week 8's biggest games

A year ago, the Chargers were the NFL’s most profitable point-spread team, the Broncos paid out like a malfunctioning ATM when playing as a favorite and the Commanders were road warriors.

Now? The Bolts are in the midst of a spread-covering power outage; Denver can’t be trusted to lay points; and Washington (and in particular, its defense) is struggling on the highway.

Meanwhile, the Bills have been unstoppable over the past decade when coming off a bye (as they are this week), but continue to be completely unreliable when installed as a big favorite (as they are this week — against an opponent that’s on a spread-covering heater).

These are just a few of the topics covered in this week’s NFL betting trends report, which focuses on the trio of Week 8 prime-time games, as well as the marquee matchups in Sunday’s early- and late-afternoon windows.

All listed odds are via BetMGM and subject to change.

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Money line: Vikings +150/Chargers -185

• In Jim Harbaugh’s first 20 regular-season games as head coach, the Chargers went 14-6 SU and an NFL-best 15-4-1 ATS.

However, after Sunday’s 38-24 home loss to Indianapolis, Harbaugh’s troops enter Thursday Night Football in a 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS slump. It’s the first four-game point-spread slide for Los Angeles since it failed to cover in six consecutive games in the middle of the 2020 season (Weeks 8-13).

One positive for the Charges: They’ve won eight consecutive prime-time games as a betting favorite, going 6-2 ATS (4-0 ATS last four).

• With its 28-22 home loss to Philadelphia as a 2.5-point underdog in Week 7, Minnesota continued an odd NFL betting trend: It has now alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in eight straight regular season games since Week 17 of 2024.

• Seven of the Vikings’ last nine games have flown over the closing total, including all three away from home this season (one in Chicago, one in Dublin, Ireland and one in London, England).

Also, the over has cashed in all four of Minnesota’s Thursday Night Football appearances this decade. Total points scored in those contests: 64, 62, 59 and 50.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are on an 11-6 over tear (one playoff game included), and six of their last eight at SoFi Stadium have cleared the total.

• Vikings WR Justin Jefferson was held out of the end zone Sunday against the Eagles, extending his scoreless streak to five games.

Jefferson has now been shut out in 14 of his last 18 contests (playoffs included). On Thursday, he’ll face a Chargers secondary that has allowed only seven passing TDs (tied for second fewest in the league).

Jefferson’s odds to score a TD Thursday: +145.

Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Money line: Bills -400/Panthers +310

• After opening the season with four straight wins, Buffalo limped into its Week 7 bye off consecutive upset losses to the Patriots (23-20 at home) and Falcons (24-14 on the road).

The Bills are in the midst of a four-game spread-covering funk, their longest since an 0-6 ATS drought in 2023 (Weeks 5-10).

Two more NFL betting trends that are relevant given the point spread for Sunday’s game in Carolina: Buffalo is mired in ATS slumps of 4-12 overall and 1-4 as a road favorite of 6 points or more in regular season action.

• On the flip side, the Bills have won 10 straight games following their in-season bye (7-2-1 ATS).

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During this post-bye hot streak, Buffalo is 7-0 SU and 4-2-1 ATS as favorite, and 2-0 SU and ATS on the road.

• With consecutive upset victories over Miami, Dallas and the Jets, Carolina is riding its first three-game SU winning streak since the start of the 2021 season.

The last time the franchise won four in a row? Weeks 3-6 of 2019.

Also, the Panthers are on positive ATS runs of 12-4 overall (5-1 last six weeks); 7-1 at home (3-0 this year); 7-0 as a home underdog; and 7-1 as an underdog of 6 points or more.

• Carolina’s 13-6 victory at the Jets on Sunday was by far the lowest-scoring game of Week 7.

That result aside, the over remains 17-6 in Panthers games since the 2024 season kicked off, including 9-2 in Carolina. Not once during this stretch have the Panthers stayed under the total in back-to-back contests.

• Bills QB Josh Allen has thrown for fewer than 220 yards in six of his last eight regular-season games.

Relatedly, Carolina’s defense has allowed just two QBs to top that number through seven games: Dallas’ Dak Prescott (261) and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa (256).

Allen’s passing projection for Sunday’s game ranges from 223.5 to 227.5, depending on the sportsbook.

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Money line: Cowboys +145/Broncos -175

• Dallas has covered the point spread in each of its three games as an underdog this season (1-1-1 SU).

Going back to Week 12 of 2024, the Cowboys are on a 7-2 ATS roll when catching points (4-1 ATS as a road pup).

However, 10 of Dallas’ last 11 losses were by more than three points. The one exception: a 30-27 setback at Carolina two weeks ago.

• Denver’s on-field record (5-2) is the exact inverse of its point-spread record (2-5).

Furthermore, after failing to cover an 8.5-point spread in Sunday’s miraculous 33-32 last-second comeback win over the Giants, the Broncos dropped to 1-4 ATS as a favorite in 2025.

That NFL betting trend is in stark contrast to last year, when the team went 8-0 SU and ATS as a favorite.

• The shootout against New York ended Denver’s 4-0 under streak. Still, the Broncos have stayed low in seven of their last nine games (playoffs included).

Conversely, Dallas has soared over the total in four straight games, five of six and 11 of 15. Total points scored in Cowboys games this year: 44, 77, 45, 80, 59, 57 and 66.

• Since amassing 188 passing yards in the season opener at Philadelphia, Dallas QB Dak Prescott has averaged 282.2 air yards per game.

How has Denver performed against opposing QBs? Hit and miss. The Broncos shut down Titans rookie Cam Ward in his NFL debut (112 yards), Bengals backup Jake Browning (125) and the Jets’ Justin Fields (45).

Otherwise, though, Denver has gotten torched by Daniel Jones (316), Justin Herbert (300), Jalen Hurts (280) and Jaxson Dart (283).

Prescott’s passing yardage prop this week: 251.5 to 253.5 yards.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) throws the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 19, 2025, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers are 0-3 ATS on the road this season. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

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Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Money line: Packers -170/Steelers +140

• After falling short as a 7-point favorite in last week’s come-from-behind 27-23 win at Arizona, Green Bay will lug an 0-4 ATS slump into Pittsburgh.

What’s more, the Packers are 0-3 ATS on the road this season. If you toss in last year’s blowout postseason loss at Philadelphia, they have failed to cover in seven of their last nine as a visitor (1-5 ATS as a road favorite).

• One NFL betting trend that does favor Green Bay: During this decade, the team is 10-3-1 SU and 11-3 ATS on Sunday Night Football (4-2-1 SU and 5-2 ATS on the road).

Of course, that includes the 40-40 tie at Dallas as a 6.5-point road favorite in Week 4.

• In its only previous game catching points this season, Pittsburgh went to Dublin and beat the Vikings 24-21 as a 2.5-point underdog in Week 4.

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With that upset, the Steelers improved to 16-8 SU and 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog. Over this span, they’re 13-6 SU and 14-5 ATS when catching 3 points or less (5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS as a home pup).

Additionally, Pittsburgh has cashed in four straight Sunday Night Football games, all as an underdog (3-1 SU).

• Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers is coming off his second four-touchdown passing game of the season, and his 14 scoring tosses are tied for fourth-most in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the last three QBs to face the Packers have thrown multiple touchdowns: Dak Prescott (three), Joe Flacco (two) and Jacoby Brissett (two).

Rodgers’ odds to record multiple TD passes Sunday night range from -115 to -130.

Kickoff: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Money line: Commanders +550/Chiefs -800

• Kansas City annihilated the Raiders 31-0 on Sunday, finishing with astonishing edges in first downs (30-3), total yards (434-95) and time of possession (42 minutes to 18).

The Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5) easily covered the biggest point spread of Week 7, and in doing so snapped an 0-3-1 ATS drought as a double-digit favorite.

Still, Kansas City is only 8-12-1 ATS when laying 10 or more points in this decade. Another noteworthy NFL betting trend: While double-digit favorites are 7-0 SU this year, they’re only 4-3 ATS.

• With their last-minute 31-28 loss at Jacksonville in Week 5, the Chiefs fell to 4-3 SU and 1-6 ATS on Monday Night Football since the start of the 2021 season.

That includes an 0-4 ATS mark as a favorite of more than 5 points.

Also, even though the game against the Jags easily cleared the total, the under remains 9-4 when K.C. plays on Monday Night Football since 2018 (5-2 at home).

• Washington won seven of its final 10 road games in 2024 (playoffs included), going 5-4-1 ATS. However, the Commanders have dropped three of four as a visitor this season.

The lone bright spot: a 27-10 thrashing of the Chargers in Los Angeles as a 3-point underdog in Week 5. Otherwise, Washington’s defense has no-showed on the highway, giving up 27, 34 and 44 points at Green Bay, Atlanta and Dallas, respectively.

The Chiefs’ point totals in their last three at Arrowhead Stadium: 31 (Raiders), 30 (Lions) and 37 (Ravens). The odds that Kansas City tops 30 points against the Commanders: -105 at BetMGM.

• Washington opened up the 2024 campaign with a 37-20 loss at Tampa Bay. That was the team’s most recent double-digit defeat until Sunday’s 44-22 debacle in Dallas.

NFL betting, odds, lines: Betting trends to know for Week 8’s biggest games

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