Banderas de México y canada ondeando en un edificio · Alex Borderline via Getty Images
Four out of five Canadian business leaders say the federal government should focus on a bilateral trade deal with the United States, excluding Mexico, according to a new KPMG Canada survey.
The Big Four accounting and consulting firm says it surveyed 501 Canadian companies between Sept. 11 and Oct. 2. KPMG says the owners and executives it polled span all industry sectors, with annual gross revenue ranging from $10 million up to $1 billion.
According to the results, 88 per cent say the greatest risk to their company is losing current protections under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). A similar number, 82 per cent, believe U.S. tariffs requiring foreign trade partners to “pay to access the U.S. market” are here to stay.
CUSMA is due for a joint review by its signatories in 2026, prior to the agreement’s built-in expiry date in 2036. This negotiation will decide whether to extend the agreement to 2042.
According to the Bank of Canada, CUSMA covers 100 per cent of Canada’s energy exports, and 95 per cent of all other goods shipped to the U.S. The U.S. has separately targeted specific Canadian products like steel, aluminum, lumber and auto parts, regardless of their CUSMA status.
U.S. tariffs on non-CUSMA compliant goods increased to 35 per cent on Aug 1.
“Although exemptions for CUSMA-compliant goods are providing an escape hatch from many U.S. tariffs, the framework and rules may change under a new trade deal in the future,” KPMG partner Joy Nott stated in a news release on Thursday.
Speaking in Ottawa on Wednesday evening, Prime Minister Mark Carney said the U.S. has fundamentally changed its trade policy under President Donald Trump by raising tariffs to levels last seen during the Great Depression. He says Canada must double its non-U.S. exports over the next decade.
According to KPMG’s survey, 80 per cent of Canadian business leaders think Canada should negotiate a two-state trade deal with the U.S. alone, rather than attempt to forge a new trilateral Canada-U.S.-Mexico pact.
“We could see a situation in which a bilateral agreement with the U.S. replaces CUSMA in 2026 and alters the playing field,” Nott added.
Carney visited the Mexican capital last month, laying potential groundwork for a bilateral trading relationship between the two nations.
More to follow.
Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jefflagerquist.
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