Is a “breakout year” really possible when you’re already a superstar? I’m going to say yes.
There are levels to this, of course. Still, a player ascending from top-15 or top-10-ish status in the league to a legit MVP candidate is arguably an even more difficult, more challenging and vertiginous jump than making the leap from random scrub to solid starter. The player might only move up past a few other players in the elite pecking order, but the degree of difficulty is off the charts.
That takes us to the duo of Victor Wembanyama and Luka Dončić, both of whom were lights out in their season openers after an offseason where each already seemed on a trajectory pointed upward. As such, they are the linchpins of my All-Breakout Team for 2025-26. But before we talk more about Dončić and Wemby, let’s take a quick timeout for my annual performance review.
Last year was a good one for All-Breakout Team projections: I had the league’s Most Improved Player winner (Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels), the guy who would have finished second if he had played enough games (then-LA Clipper Norman Powell) and the fifth-place finisher for Defensive Player of the Year (Houston’s Amen Thompson). I had first-time All-Star Jalen Williams of the Oklahoma City Thunder and listed Chicago’s Josh Giddey. At the upper tier, I also highlighted then-Los Angeles Laker Anthony Davis, who only played 51 games but statistically had his best season since the pandemic at age 31.
On the downside, I highlighted Toronto’s RJ Barrett (was I a year too soon?), New Orleans’ Zion Williamson (do waist breakouts count?), Charlotte’s injured Tre Mann and Denver’s Julian Strawther (low-key yikes ).
But enough about me, let’s talk about Wemby. I mean, what in the name of…
EMPHATIC BLOCK.
ISO STEPBACK 4-POINT PLAY.
10-0 WEMBY RUN… HE’S GOT 31! pic.twitter.com/VP4HwuDLNn
— NBA (@NBA) October 23, 2025
About six different things happen in the clip above that are unique and left me cackling in wonder. That started with the volleyball spike of a 7-foot-1 player’s hook shot and continued to the tallest player in the league calmly breaking into a left-handed push dribble, coming under control and then hitting a complex six-dribble sequence and stepback 3-pointer plus the foul.
And yet, none of those are the reasons I have Wembanyama on my All-Breakout Team. The reason I like him to improve on his already staggering level of play so much is that he seems much more capable of completing mundane plays in between the jaw-dropping highlights.
The thing that I noticed most in his 40-point virtuoso performance in the opener against Dallas was the lower-body strength, that he can take the first hit on his way to the cup and stay on balance and complete the play. A couple of times, he even mashed. For instance, watch him get into Davis’ body here and then rise for an easy bank shot:
These were the plays on which the younger Wembanyama would end up shooting an off-balance fade that left him on the floor and the opponent going five-on-four the other way. I didn’t really see any of it in the Spurs’ opener. Instead, he made seven non-dunk 2s in his 15-of-19 shooting performance, and the clips show him playing through some degree of contact on all seven of them — including taking multiple bumps from Naji Marshall to hit a midrange jumper and twice going through Davis to get into a short bank shot.
That, for me, is that piece that changes everything. I had Wembanyama fifth in my top players in the league rankings for the coming season, and that already feels like I might have massively shortchanged him. There’s a chance he’s the best player in the league right now. He just had 40 points, 15 rebounds and no turnovers in a 29-minute stint against arguably the most defensively able two-center frontcourt in the league in Davis and Dereck Lively II; if that’s the case, what on earth is he going to do to teams like Charlotte or New Orleans?
So, yeah, let’s put Wemby on the All-Breakout Team. And let’s put Dončić on there too.
Let’s start with an underdiscussed fact: After the trade last year, Dončić wasn’t really that good relative to his usual lofty standard. He only shot 49.3 percent on 2s as a Laker, and his 23.9 PER as a Laker was his lowest since his rookie year. It was the same in the playoffs, with a 21.5 PER in the Minnesota series and a notably lower usage rate than in his time in Dallas.
The reason seems fairly obvious: Dončić was coming to a team built around LeBron James and had to adjust, rather than having the system built around his own skills. That won’t be the case this season; the Lakers are all-in on Luka heliocentricism, with James’ early absence due to sciatica making that commitment even more necessary.
That is the reason I’m bullish on the 26-year-old Dončić’s chances of a career year. His overall stats were a far cry from the previous two full seasons he had as a Maverick, but there is no reason to believe he can’t get back to that level or shoot right past it. That’s where the “Skinny Luka” reports from the offseason are encouraging, as Dončić’s conditioning was obviously a thing that held him back at times. We should note that one of Dončić’s puzzling issues, going back to his days in Madrid, was a tendency to add weight in-season, so this is still something worth monitoring. But the fact that he seems a lot more committed to staying in peak shape is another reason to believe in him busting out.
That certainly seemed the case in the opener, where Dončić was awesome despite the Lakers’ defeat to Golden State — and despite making only two of his 10 3-point attempts. (Surely that percentage will level out.) Dončić finished with 43 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists and was basically unstoppable inside the arc: He finished 15-of-17 on 2s and drew 17 free-throw attempts. Tape nerds will note that Dončić also made six 2s from the left side of the free-throw area. Historically, his left-hand dribble has been mainly a vehicle to get to stepback 3s, but he hasn’t been too keen on taking a hard bounce in that direction and then rising up Dirk Nowitzki-style from 15 feet.
On Tuesday, he did it multiple times:
The rest of the Lakers’ roster has a lot of questions, and it may ultimately leave Dončić languishing when it comes to MVP consideration. But as far as the overall level of play? Yes, he seems primed to go up another level from the heights that saw him drag Dallas to the 2024 NBA Finals. Like Wemby, it’s a post-stardom breakout.
For the rest of the squad, I’m trying not to just hit on players who will get more minutes and touches (i.e. Scoot Henderson and Andrew Nembhard), although that’s a factor in a few cases. Instead, this is an effort to really drill down on guys who will truly be better in 2025-26.
Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons
Thompson missed the start of last season due to a blood clot issue, joined a crowded wing rotation mid-stream while playing himself into shape and ended up averaging 10.1 points in 59 games.
With a full offseason of conditioning, the twin of Houston’s Amen Thompson should be ready to emerge the way his brother did a year ago. While Ausar is maybe not quite on Amen’s level as a freak athlete, he’s an awesome defender who can get out in transition and score at the rim, and he has a point guard’s handle. His shooting may be more salvageable than Amen’s as well, though he shot 64.1 percent from the free-throw line last year. Baby steps.
Detroit’s offseason losses of Malik Beasley and Dennis Schröder should force Thompson into a bigger role, and while the questions about his impact as a shooter won’t go away, he contributes in enough other ways that he’s likely a long-term starter at worst. He had 11 points, nine rebounds and seven dimes in the Pistons’ opening loss in Chicago and 19 points and four assists in their win Friday against Houston.
Sandro Mamukelashvili, Toronto Raptors
Last season, 50 NBA players averaged at least 20.0 points per 36 minutes while playing at least 500 total minutes. Most of them are players you’ve heard of, like Nikola Jokić or Pascal Siakam or Desmond Bane. Some of them are players you know of but maybe think about a little less, like Coby White or De’Andre Hunter.
And then, sticking out like a sore thumb amidst all these names, is Mamukelashvili. He averaged 20.2 points per 36 last season, more than Domantas Sabonis or Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, among others, and then signed with the Toronto Raptors in the offseason to back up Jakob Poeltl in the frontcourt.
Mamukelashvili is a good passer from the elbows who can handle the ball and distribute. He’s also turned an iffy, wristy 3-point motion into a reliable weapon, making 37.3 percent of his 11.4 attempts per 100 possessions last season, and that helps open the floor for his plus handle. Since Mamukelashvili isn’t an elite athlete, he needs his skill level at 6-11 to do the work. At 26, he might be ready for a low-key breakout.
All the conditions are there: He has the backup center job to himself, behind a guy not exactly renowned for his offense or floor-spacing repertoire in Poeltl, and he can also move to power forward and play next to Big Jak. Mamukelashvili had seven points and three assists in 17 minutes in Toronto’s opening night rout of Atlanta, but I expect bigger things as the year goes on.
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
I didn’t dwell on this too much in my recent rookie extensions analysis, but Mathurin was one of the most interesting non-deals at the deadline. The 2022 lottery pick had a strong postseason during the Pacers’ NBA Finals run and is a starter this year in the wake of Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles injury.
Mathurin erupted for 36 points and 11 rebounds in the Pacers’ season-opening loss to Oklahoma City and could end up being Indiana’s go-to scorer in half-court situations because he gets into the paint so easily and draws heaps of fouls (17 free-throw attempts against the Thunder!). Per minute, he scored nearly as much as All-Star Pascal Siakam last season, thanks to his elite free-throw rate (only four guards had more free throws per field goal attempt than his 0.389 last season). The issue for Mathurin will be shooting consistently from the perimeter (34.0 percent last season, 34.2 percent career) and improving the shoot-pass decisions that historically have only been “shoot” decisions.
Indiana needed more information before committing big money to Mathurin as a long-term piece, even if that certainly costs the Pacers more a year from now. In his fourth season and coming off a playoff run where he seemed to turn a corner, I’m betting he can average over 20 a game on plus efficiency and get his payday.
Nikola Jović, Miami Heat
Jović only played 46 games in his third pro season, starting just 10 of them, but he has steadily improved since arriving in Miami as a raw teenager and should be ready to emerge. Opportunity-wise, he’s the only true power forward left on Miami’s roster with Kyle Anderson and Haywood Highsmith gone.
At 6-10 with the ball skills of a smaller player, Jović presents a nice inside-outside combo who can toggle between both forward spots depending on Miami’s lineup needs; crucially, he’s also developed enough as a shooter (37.2 percent career from 3, 80.3 percent from the line) to keep opposing defenses honest.
The biggest challenge now will just be upping his volume to the point that he’s a more consistent threat, especially with Miami missing Tyler Herro to start the season. Usage rates in the teens aren’t going to cut it anymore.
I’m optimistic he can pull it off, and based on the four-year, $64 million extension they gave him this offseason, so are the Heat. Jović had a relatively quiet opener against Orlando’s stout defense (nine points in 23 minutes) before going for 20 points, six rebounds and four assists off the bench Friday.
Cam Whitmore, Washington Wizards
I’m extremely bullish on Whitmore this year because he’s finally found the right situation for his attacking game, on a Washington team that is desperate for a downhill scorer like him. He’s almost the left-handed, bizarro version of Mathurin, with extreme free-throw rates and a high overall scoring rate. Whitmore didn’t start in Washington’s season-opening loss to Milwaukee but scored 14 points in 19 minutes; I won’t be remotely shocked if he ends up as the team’s leading scorer while only ranking fifth or sixth in minutes.
The two keys for Whitmore are that the lefty is a reliable shooter, which adds to the threat of his explosive drives going left to the cup, and that he can defend his position, which limits the risk of keeping him on the floor for extended run and playing through some of his mistakes. Those mistakes unquestionably include bouts of tunnel vision, and he’ll need to improve his distribution to be more than an empty-calorie scorer long term. But after withering on the Houston bench for two years in an overcrowded forward rotation, he’s primed for a leap in Year 3.
Kyshawn George, Wizards
Two Wizards? That seems kind of high for a team that I expect to be jaw-droppingly awful, but George turned a corner in summer league and had a fantastic preseason. He’s ready to go up a level.
To be clear, he’ll need to: The 2024 late first-rounder had some pretty brutal numbers last season while he figured out the NBA game. However, George has size, shooting ability and a pretty good feel for defense, plus enough ball skills to make it as a long-term combo forward. He put up 34 points and 11 rebounds in Washington’s win Friday in Dallas, shooting 11 of 15 overall and 7 of 9 from 3. At the very least, he seems to have a lock on a starting job while Bilal Coulibaly is out. On a Wizards team where the young draft picks have largely underwhelmed so far, he is clearly emerging.
Matas Buzelis, Chicago Bulls
Provocative hot take: Will Buzelis end up being the best player from the 2024 draft? Faint praise, sure, but the 11th pick came on strong late last season after a very shaky start and has only gained more steam since.
Buzelis was awesome in preseason, for what that’s worth, and his 21-point, three-block performance in the opening night win over Detroit included several highlight-worthy clips. The 6-8 forward needs to make perimeter shots more consistently and continue adding strength, but he can handle the ball, make plays around (and above) the rim and read the game. There’s a right-tail scenario here where he ends up a prominent Most Improved Player candidate.
Terrence Shannon Jr., Minnesota Timberwolves
After Shannon Jr. supplied some back-end rotation minutes in the 2025 playoff run and looked too good for summer league, the Wolves have pushed the second-year pro into a more prominent role, and he seems ready for it.
Shannon followed a strong preseason with a 10-point, five-rebound, five-assist effort in the season opener. Shannon is too left-dominant, and the “will he shoot it” questions will linger until we get more sample size, but Shannon is a plus athlete who can defend and get downhill to the cup. This, in a nutshell, is why the Wolves let Nickeil Alexander-Walker walk and paid their two free-agent bigs (Naz Reid, Julius Randle) instead: They had the replacement waiting for Alexander-Walker and no ready alternatives in the frontcourt.
Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers
I’m deeply conflicted on Clingan’s teammate Shaedon Sharpe, whom I think will put up numbers and possibly win Sixth Man of the Year if Scoot Henderson’s return sends Sharpe to the bench, but I’m not as sure about how he impacts winning at a high level. So let’s roll with Clingan here, the second-year big man who takes over in the middle after the Blazers let Deandre Ayton go.
Clingan’s breakout wouldn’t be a traditional one due to his offensive limitations — I don’t see any 50-point nights coming — but he low-key had a very solid rookie season as a rebounder and rim protector. I don’t think he’s destined to be a total dud on offense either. He can pass, which is something I always gravitate toward with young bigs, and his sheer size should eventually translate into more production in the paint. He also has a nascent 3-point shot that may be game-ready at some point this season.
Finally, there’s the fact that the Blazers are handing him the gig, with Clingan playing 30 minutes in the opener against Minnesota. I expect him to establish himself as a legit starting center this season.
Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
Hey, remember Miller? The second pick in the 2023 draft only played 27 games last season due to a season-ending wrist injury. However, Miller averaged 21.0 points per game pre-injury and had sharply ticked upward as a passer.
Now he’s back for Year 3 on a Charlotte roster that seems more coherent than the last two he’s been on, and he’s the clear second option on the Hornets behind the oft-injured LaMelo Ball. Miller had 25 points and seven assists in the Hornets’ opener against the Brooklyn Nets, and while that isn’t the toughest opposition he’ll face this season, it’s an encouraging proof-of-concept that a big year lies ahead.