Hierarchy test from day one
Voigt expects the opening team time trial in Barcelona to expose the first signs of tension within Red Bull’s leadership trio. A new rule means the time will be taken on the first rider across the line rather than the fourth – turning what was once a collective effort into an early test of authority.
“At Red Bull, everything will revolve around hierarchy on day one,” Voigt explained. “No one will want to lose time to the others on the final climb up Montjuïc. If one of them drops the others, he’s not doing anything wrong – everyone will just have to ride as fast as they can. But it could create a bit of internal rivalry.”
That dynamic could be further complicated by Remco Evenepoel’s impending arrival. The Belgian, a triple world time-trial champion and 2022 Vuelta winner, is seen as the most credible challenger to Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard, yet Voigt warned the 2026 route may not fully suit him.
“For Remco, it’s not ideal,” he noted. “There’s only one individual time trial, over 26 kilometres. He’d probably have liked a few more kilometres against the clock – maybe even a solo time trial to open the race.”
Brutal route will punish the unprepared
Across three weeks and roughly 3,000 kilometres, Voigt sees a parcours designed to strip away pretenders and reward only the strongest teams – UAE Team Emirates – XRG, Team Visma | Lease a Bike, and Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe foremost among them.
“Without illness or crashes, we’ll see the same podium as this year,” Voigt predicted. “The route is so demanding there’s no room for surprises. You need a very strong team, because there’s a lot of work to be done. Already after the first week, we’ll have a very good idea of where this Tour is heading.”
He added that the apparently gentle Catalan opening could mislead riders into thinking the Tour starts softly: “It’s a rider-friendly start, but the GC men must stay sharp from day one. Even the first climb on Montjuïc will begin to shape the standings.”
“A fear stage for everyone”
If the first week is designed to catch contenders napping, the Alpine finale is built to break them. The Tour’s final mountain block features back-to-back summit finishes on Alpe d’Huez – a historic first – with more than 5,500 metres of climbing on the penultimate day alone.
“Two consecutive summit finishes on Alpe d’Huez – we’ve never seen that before,” Voigt said. “For the domestiques, it’s a death sentence; for the climbers and GC riders, it’s still all to play for. It’ll be an incredibly hard stage – a fear stage for everyone.”
Voigt believes that if Pogacar dominates as expected, the final showdown will merely confirm his supremacy. But if the Slovenian shows any weakness, “the entire race could be turned on its head” as attacks explode over the Col de la Croix de Fer and Col de Sarenne.
Changing of the guard?
While Pogacar and Vingegaard remain the benchmark, Voigt’s faith in Lipowitz suggests Red Bull may soon build its Tour strategy around the young German.
“Lipowitz has shown he’s calm, efficient and climbs with the best,” Voigt said. “He’s right there – that last one per cent is all that’s missing.”
With a demanding parcours, volatile team dynamics and an early hierarchy test in Barcelona, Voigt believes the 2026 Tour de France will reward patience, resilience and team depth – qualities Lipowitz, in his view, has already begun to master.