The game of the week includes Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and while I don’t always have a bet in the marquee games, I do this week. The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills with major AFC playoff implications and, well, I like one side better than the other.

We juiced out last week with two horrible losses that never even stood a chance. That happens, though. And shame on the betting market for thinking a total should be below 41 with Drake Maye and this Patriots offense working the way it is right now. Anyway, we move on to next week, trying to get back to a winning week.

Last week’s record: 2-2, -0.20 units
Season record: 22-17, +3.73 units, +8.7% ROI

Four plays on the card to start, and there is at least one more that will be added through the weekend. I’m interested to see if I can get a better price before locking the play in. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!

Week 9 best betsMinnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions under 48.5 (-110)

Worst price to bet: Under 48 (-110)
J.J. McCarthy is back in the lineup, and his first action will be on the road against a strong defensive unit in Detroit. Sure, the Lions are banged up in the secondary, but you wouldn’t have noticed over the last few weeks. For the season, the Lions are in the top 10 of EPA per play against the pass and the run. My only worry here is that we get an offensive explosion from the Lions, but that’s the risk you take.

Las Vegas Raiders +3 (-114) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Worst price to bet: Raiders +3 (-115)
It’s painful, sure, but if there is one small bit of hope for the Raiders this week, it’s that the Jaguars are in the bottom half of generating pressure, and Geno Smith has been horrendous against pressure this season. Geno ranks 18th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when not pressured this season. Not amazing, but more in line with what you’d expect from a quarterback of his caliber. However, when he faces pressure, he ranks 32nd. The Raiders’ offensive line is poor, yes, but if there is a matchup to keep Geno clean, it’s this one. Oh, and Brock Bowers should be back!

Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-110) at Buffalo Bills

Worst price to bet: Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
The clash of two titans in the AFC, and, naturally, I’m going with the team that has had the upper hand consistently in this series. But it’s not just that the Chiefs offense has found a new gear with Rashee Rice back in the lineup the past two weeks, it’s that the Bills defense might be really bad. Ed Oliver suffered a bicep injury last week that will be long-term, and I’m not confident there is enough on Buffalo’s defense to generate enough stops. I also kind of like the over because of this, but I’ll stick with betting on Mahomes under a field goal.

Seattle Seahawks -3 (-105) at Washington Commanders

Worst price to bet: Seahawks -3 (-115)
I like this no matter who plays at quarterback for the Commanders. I’m skeptical that Daniels will be 100 percent coming off a hamstring injury, and if you’re going to tell me he’s not going to have the full use of his legs against this Seahawks defense, sign me up. On the other side of the ball, Dorance Armstrong’s injury is one that I think is still being underrated by the market. He was having a really good year for the Commanders, and without him, the defensive line — and thus the entire defense — leaves a lot to be desired. I think the Seahawks could win this one with ease.