The Blue Jays are, in some ways, right on schedule. When Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette debuted in 2019, their arrival was supposed to signal the rise of a homegrown core that would carry the franchise back to the World Series. The Jays have, in fact, gotten to the World Series and could win it tonight, but the touted homegrown core hasn’t been impactful beyond Guerrero, Bichette and Alejandro Kirk, and they’ve instead gotten contributions from less-touted guys like Addison Barger and Mason Fluharty (and the rapid rise of Trey Yesavage). We asked The Athletic’s Keith Law what exactly happened in the Blue Jays’ system in recent years. Here’s Keith:
They haven’t really hit on a first-round pick since Marcus Stroman back in 2012, although they get partial credit on Alek Manoah, who was superb until he broke. Bo Bichette, a second rounder, has outproduced every Blue Jays first-round pick in the last 20 years other than Stroman by bWAR.
The Jays have also had some pretty significant flameouts from beyond the top two rounds of the draft. Orelvis Martinez was a top 100 prospect until he tested positive for a PED, which effectively ended his career as a Jay; Ricky Tiedemann danced around arm injuries for years before undergoing Tommy John in July 2024. Since Stroman, Manoah is the only truly homegrown starter they’ve developed who was better than a No. 5.