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Good morning! Go for a record today.

Playoff picture: The NFL show is just getting started

Week 9 has come and gone, and the NFL season’s midway point offered much drama. The Bills shut down Patrick Mahomes and evaded the Chiefs for the fifth straight time in the regular season to improve to a secure 6-2 mark. The Broncos staged another fourth-quarter comeback to move to an AFC West-best 7-2, in a game that saw Texans QB C.J. Stroud leave with a concussion.

Elsewhere, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels dislocated his elbow in a gruesome scene against the Seahawks, who saw Sam Darnold cook. The Panthers upset the Packers. The Vikings knocked off the Lions. The Steelers upended the Colts. The Bears took down the Bengals in such a way that “The Athletic Football Show” hosts were brought to their feet (grown men jumping for joy here!). Whew.

Nine games yesterday were decided by 7 points or fewer — and five of those by 3 or fewer.

Some teams don’t have the divisional edge to dwell on a tight loss. Some divisions boast tight playoff races, others have one-win teams already eyeing the No. 1 draft pick. Here’s how teams stack up before the season’s second act begins, according to The Athletic’s 2025 NFL Playoff Simulator:

Locks (90 percent or better):

At 7-2, the Patriots (👀) own the highest chance in the league to make the playoffs at 97 percent. The Bills trail their AFC East foe at 95 percent.
The Colts (7-2) are sitting comfortably around 93 percent — as are the Eagles (6-2) and Buccaneers (6-2).
The Rams (6-2) lead the NFC West’s teams with a 91 percent chance, but the Seahawks and 49ers are pretty well situated themselves. This is wild:

The Packers (5-2-1) round out the top standings with 90 percent. Of note: They also post the best odds to win the Super Bowl at 11 percent.

Yikes! It’s worse than you think:

Psst … we’re looking at you, Dallas. The Cowboys (3-4-1) are second to the Eagles in the NFC East, but have only a 12 percent chanceof making it out of the regular season.

Hmm … might surprise you:

The 3-5 Ravens are looking … fine? Baltimore has about a 65 percent chance to make the postseason, despite sitting behind Pittsburgh (5-3) in the AFC North. That’s likely because Lamar Jackson came back Thursday — in a big way — and the schedule is favorable.

You can keep exploring scenarios in the simulator (everyone can access it for free in our app), and read our NFL staff’s full Week 9 takeaways. And just in, Mike Sando’s Pick Six stacks the messy AFC. Let’s keep moving:

News to Know

Freeze out at Auburn
Another week, another high-profile college football firing. Auburn (4-5, 1-5 SEC) parted with coach Hugh Freeze amid his third season yesterday after the Tigers’ 10-3 loss to Kentucky. It was the last straw in a string of embarrassing home losses during Freeze’s 15-19 tenure, and now he’s owed a $15.7 million buyout. Defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, who comes with baggage, will be the Tigers’ interim head coach. More here. (We also have names to watch.)

More news

Yankees pitcher Max Fried, Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan and Cubs left fielder Ian Happ each won Gold Gloves for the fourth time. Full list of winners here.
Racing Louisville grabbed the final NWSL playoff spot on Decision Day yesterday, ending a four-year run of finishing one place short. Check out the postseason bracket.
Kenyan distance runner Benson Kipruto won the men’s division at the New York City Marathon yesterday by 16 hundredths of a second, the closest finish in the race’s history. Fellow Kenyan Hellen Obiri set a course record in her win on the women’s side.
Spurs rookie point guard Dylan Harper, the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, exited last night’s game against the Spurs with a calf injury. San Antonion finally lost, too.
The ACC fined Clemson coach Dabo Swinney $10,000 for criticizing a late pass interference call in the Tigers’ 46-45 loss to Duke on Saturday. See his full comments.

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Study Up: Names to know this MLB offseason

The World Series ending on a Saturday created this tidy timeline where we got one day to process, and then with this new week comes offseason action. Eligible players have now officially become free agents, and even a casual fan can glean that this class is solid.

Our experts — namely, Keith Law and Jim Bowden — unsurprisingly agree Kyle Tucker is the No. 1 name available, both ranking the 28-year-old atop their top-50 lists. Tucker was hampered by injury this season, but his underlying stats and longtime defensive prowess point to a massive payday.
From there, the writers share similar names in their top 10s, including Bo Bichette, Kyle Schwarber, Framber Valdez, Pete Alonso, Ranger Suárez, Alex Bregman, Dylan Ceaseand Cody Bellinger. They also each picked a Japanese star expected to be posted to MLB this winter: Bowden went with RHP Tatsuya Imai and Law with the power-hitting infielder Munetaka Murakami.

The players already in MLB have to wait until Thursday to enter full-blown negotiations with teams other than their most recent. In the meantime, you can peruse Law’s full rankings here and Bowden’s here.

This has been a very high-level crash course, though, so we asked Levi Weaver to pinpoint the most interesting player to monitor:

💬 I’m sure that this is recency bias, but I’m fascinated by Bichette’s free agency this year. With the banned shift, we’ve started to see the league eke ever-so-slowly back toward valuing contact. No, we’re probably never going back to the “1998 Wade Boggs” era (.366 average, five HR, sixth in MVP voting), but maybe we’re coming out of the “2023 Kyle Schwarber” era (.197 average, 47 HR, 15th in MVP voting).

Bichette, 27, tied for the second-best batting average in baseball this season (.311), and drove in 94 RBIs while hitting just 18 home runs. His defense at shortstop has been an issue, but at second base? I’m interested.

By the way: Levi just wrapped up another fantastic season authoring our free MLB newsletter, The Windup. Sign up here to get his coverageall offseason.

What to Watch

📺 NFL: Cardinals at Cowboys

8:15 p.m. ET on ABC (try streaming on Fubo for free)

Arizona (2-5) enters this one on a five-game losing streak, and Kyler Murray is set to miss a third straight start with a foot injury — although coach Jonathan Gannon said the QB “might have a role” here. Dallas needs to bounce back from last week’s blowout loss.

📺 NCAAM: No. 3 Florida vs. No. 13 Arizona

7 p.m. ET on TNT, truTV and Max

College basketball is back, and this (in Las Vegas) is our first ranked men’s matchup — plus the defending champs’ debut. Consider this just a placeholder, though, as today’s hundreds of men’s and women’s Division I matchups start at 8 a.m. ET.

Get your tickets now with StubHub.

Pulse Picks

Our men’s college basketball panel is split between five choices for national champion this season. See those picks and plenty more in this 2025-26 predictions file.

Jannik Sinner took back the world No. 1 ranking. But his fate is still in Carlos Alcaraz’s hands, as James Hansen explains.

Ahead of tomorrow’s NFL trade deadline, players shared firsthand what it’s like to get traded. There are levels to it.

Not over Game 7 of the World Series? Fair. Keep the conversation going with the latest episode of “Rates & Barrels,” featuring Derek VanRiper, Eno Sarris and Jed Lowrie as your guides.

Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: Andy McCullough’s World Series Game 7 gamer.

Most-read on the website yesterday: ☝️