And we thought 2021 was crazy. But 2025 could be even crazier.
With four races left in the Formula 1 season, we’ve got one of the great intra-team world title fights combined with the most incredible comeback bid in history.
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Lando Norris enters this weekend’s Sao Paulo Grand Prix on 357 points, the barest of margins ahead of McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri on 356.
The papaya team has dominated the season, winning 13 races and recording 30 podiums, clinching the constructors’ crown what feels like months ago.
But the fact Norris and Piastri are so evenly matched, splitting points each weekend, has allowed Max Verstappen to drive his Red Bull back into the mix.
From 104 points back after his home Dutch Grand Prix, to just 36 points behind with four races remaining, Verstappen’s rise is pretty simple.
The car got better.
And that’s pretty simple too – because they kept upgrading it, while listening to the champion’s input.
Russell continues to fume post race | 03:02
“All the changes and adjustments have come together in an optimal way,” Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko told Formule 1 Magazine recently.
“That is the reason why the car is now more competitive. Max has an important voice in the technical discussions there with his experience.
“It was important that the engineers started listening to Max more. They did that before, but not to the extent they do now. You know, before that it was more about numbers on the simulator or CFD (computational fluid dynamics).
“Max told the engineers what he needed, got more confidence in the car that way and it became easier to drive. The window in which the car works has become bigger.”
He still needs help if he’s going to complete the greatest comeback in Formula 1 history, though.
BIGGEST LEAD
Piastri: 34 points (after Dutch GP)
Norris: 8 points (after China GP)
Verstappen: N/A (never led; smallest deficit was 1 point after Japan GP)
BIGGEST DEFICIT
Piastri: 23 points (after Australia GP)
Norris: 34 points (after Dutch GP)
Verstappen: 104 points (after Dutch GP)
F1 POINTS SYSTEM
Race: 1st 25 – 2nd 18 – 3rd 15 – 4th 12 – 5th 10 – 6th 8 – 7th 6 – 8th 4 – 9th 2 – 10th 1
Sprint: 1st 8 – 2nd 7 – 3rd 6 – 4th 5 – 5th 4 – 6th 3 – 7th 2 – 8th 1
Winning every remaining race and sprint (Brazil and Qatar) would see Verstappen make up a minimum of 30 points – not enough to catch Piastri or Norris individually, if one of them keeps finishing second.
But this is where McLaren’s greatest strength, two excellent drivers who comfortably delivered them the constructors’ title, could cruel their individual title bids.
You could easily argue Verstappen has the plurality chance of winning the world title but A McLaren is the most likely champion overall – something like Verstappen 35%, Norris 33%, Piastri 31%.
The current betting odds are much more favourable to Norris due to his recent form but this disregards the fact the last two tracks, Austin and Mexico City, were two of Piastri’s worst.
And with just a one-point lead over his McLaren teammate, the title advantage is as tenuous as it gets.
Verstappen will still need a brilliant run to win the world title – at least two wins out of the next three races, because he has to be within 25 points of both McLarens entering Abu Dhabi. And, realistically, the margin needs to be in the low double-digits.
But it’s plausible he could come back, which in itself is remarkable.
So who do the remaining races suit best? We break that down and make our prediction in THE RUN HOME!
Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen are fighting it out for the F1 world title.Source: FOX SPORTS
BRAZIL — SAO PAULO GRAND PRIX at Interlagos
Sprint: Sunday November 9 at 1am AEDT
Qualifying: Sunday November 9 at 5am AEDT
Race: Monday November 10 at 4am AEDT
Maximum points on offer: 33
This should be a McLaren track, as long as it doesn’t rain.
Would it shock you to learn there’s a good chance of rain this weekend in Sao Paulo?
According to AccuWeather, there’s a 60% chance it’s wet on Saturday for the sprint and qualifying, and a 25% chance of rain for race day.
That’ll help Verstappen who was mighty in winning from 17th in the wet last year.
If there’s any sort of normality, either Norris or Piastri really should win this race. It’s a high-downforce track that not only suits the papaya car but suits Piastri, who was poor the last two races on low-grip circuits.
While Norris beat Piastri in the main three sessions last year, Piastri took sprint pole when it was dry and was told to let Norris win, as McLaren tried desperately to catch Verstappen for the drivers’ title.
Team orders again flipped the order during the race after Norris took pole in qualifying but was caught out by a red flag.
We’re giving this one to Piastri by a nose and splitting the two race sessions but if you believe in momentum, it’s clearly a Norris (if dry) or Verstappen (if wet) type of weekend.
We believe momentum is descriptive, not predictive.
Estimated result and standings
Sprint (wet): Verstappen 1, Norris 2, Piastri 3
Race (dry): Piastri 1, Norris 2, Verstappen 3
Standings: Piastri 387 points, Norris 382, Verstappen 344
Yuki calls out 12 second pit stop | 02:17
LAS VEGAS GRAND PRIX
Qualifying: Saturday November 22 at 3pm AEDT
Race: Sunday November 23 at 3pm AEDT
Maximum points on offer: 25
The problem here isn’t so much that Red Bull will shine, it’s that McLaren will struggle.
The streets of Paradise, Nevada have been poor to the people in papaya since this race was introduced, with long straights and slow corners not working in their car’s favour.
Piastri and Norris’ best hope will be Verstappen failing to win, too, with Mercedes and Ferrari both genuine chances. George Russell claimed victory last year.
The best performance among the McLarens was arguably Piastri’s 10th in 2023, after both cars were eliminated in Q1. They were 6th and 7th last year with Norris using a 0.016-second qualifying edge to hold off the Aussie.
If none of the three title contenders make the podium, it simply buys the leaders time. That’s a win for the McLaren duo, because on our projections, Verstappen would now be more than a race win’s worth of points behind the pair with two to go.
Estimated result and standings
Race: Verstappen 4, Norris 6, Piastri 7
Standings: Piastri 393, Norris 390, Verstappen 356
‘Obvious’ Oscar admits to driving change | 02:42
QATAR GRAND PRIX
Sprint: Sunday November 30 at 1am AEDT
Qualifying: Sunday November 30 at 5am AEDT
Race: Monday December 1 at 3am AEDT
Maximum points on offer: 33
The Lusail circuit where Piastri recorded his first win of any kind in F1, the 2023 sprint, should also suit the McLarens nicely as a flowing, high-speed track.
Norris should have performed better last year. He was slightly quicker in qualifying, though the McLarens were surprisingly 3rd and 4th after a 1-2 in the sprint, while Verstappen took pole and won.
In the race, Norris was penalised for ignoring yellow flags and thus lost out on at least second place, dropping to 10th.
We’ll back Piastri to continue his strong form here, and he probably needs it, because the last circuit does not look in his favour.
Keep in mind Verstappen realistically needs to win at least three races of the final four to win the title, and this would be one of his best opportunities.
On our projections, this is where his title defence ends, setting up another Duel in the Desert finale.
Estimated result and standings
Sprint: Piastri 1, Norris 2, Verstappen 3
Race: Piastri 1, Norris 2, Verstappen 3
Standings: Piastri 426, Norris 415, Verstappen 377
Marshalls cross track during Lawson lap | 00:23
ABU DHABI GRAND PRIX
Qualifying: Sunday December 7 at 1am AEDT
Race: Monday December 8 at 12am AEDT
Maximum points on offer: 25
We hope you’ve already told your boss you might be a bit tired at work on December 8.
It’s virtually certain the title fight will come down to the last race of the season – it’s just a matter of how close things sit, and how many drivers are in it.
If Verstappen remains in the hunt, things get a lot more complicated. But on our numbers McLaren wins in Brazil and Qatar have ruled him out.
If Piastri were to hold our projected 11-point lead, he would only need to finish third to win his first world championship.
That’s probably the type of scenario he needs because this has been a Norris circuit in terms of McLarens, and a Verstappen circuit overall, the champ winning four of the last five races there.
Piastri may have had the pace to catch Norris last year but a lap-one incident with Verstappen ruined his race, the Briton winning comfortably.
You’d rather be ahead going into the final race, and the pressure will be intense on all involved. We’re backing our boy.
Estimated result and standings
Race: Norris 1, Verstappen 2, Piastri 3
Standings: Piastri 441, Norris 440, Verstappen 395