Rinse, wash, repeat, although something did occur last night that has never happened once in the previous 11 seasons.
Edmonton’s scoring woes at 5×5 continued as they scored one goal or fewer for the eighth time in 14 games. The Oilers have scored more than two 5×5 goals only twice this season. Last season, they scored 3+ goals at 5×5 in 29 of 82 games (35.3%). They are at 14.3% after 14 games this year. It’s a significant issue that has yet to improve. They miss Zach Hyman, but their 5×5 success can’t rely on one player that much. If they continue to use “it is early” as the reason, then nothing will change. The stats don’t lie: They aren’t scoring enough, because they aren’t generating enough.
Last season at 5×5, the Oilers averaged the most shots on goal/60 at 31.14. This season, they are 17th at 26.8. There is a clear reduction in shots from forwards. Here is a breakdown of individual shots/60 last year and this year. The number of forwards is in parentheses.
Year
+7.0 SH/60
+6.0 SH/60
+5.0 SH/60
2024/25
6 (5)
13 (8)
17 (11)
2025/26
4 (3)
6 (5)
11 (8)
They’ve dropped from 13 players averaging more than six shots/60 down to six so far this season. Shotphobia has infected many players on the team. The Oilers need to win more battles, take the puck to the net more, and have more players funneling to the net to generate second and third opportunities. That’s one area that needs fixing.
The other is reducing the glaring errors.
Evan Bouchard made another major blunder last night. Mistakes will happen, they are part of the game, and we all know Bouchard has shown the ability to eliminate the glaring error in the playoffs. But this is November, not May or June, and right now he isn’t playing close to his potential.
Blues score with a minute left to take the lead 3-2…
📹: Sportsnet
On the game-winning goal with 1:23 remaining, Bouchard slid away from the net on the point shot from Colton Parayko, leaving the front of the net open and giving Pius Suter an easy time to corral the rebound and slide it home for the game-winning goal. It is simple positioning, and really just the will to engage in a battle and be in the shooting lane.
Small details are crushing the Oilers right now.
And last night, Oilersnation witnessed something they’d never seen since Connor McDavid entered the NHL in October of 2015. McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have skated in 631 regular-season games and 96 playoff games together, and last night was the first time they combined for ZERO shots on goal.
Zero. Goose egg. None. Ziltch.
RNH and McDavid each had two assists, on two nice goals from Andrew Mangiapane and Jack Roslovic, but the lack of shots is a perfect illustration of the Oilers’ struggles, and at times, unwillingness to shoot. The Big Three were on the ice for a combined 60:14 of playing time. They were the top-three forwards in TOI, but they registered zero shots on goal. It is an odd outcome, one we’ve never seen before and likely won’t again, but it happened, and it is the perfect exclamation point on the team’s struggles to get shots on goal.
May 29, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) celebrates after he scores a goal against the Dallas Stars during the third period in game five of the Western Conference Final of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
SNAPSHOTS…
— McDavid picked up his 1,100th and 1,101st points last night. He’s the 69th player to reach 1,100 points, and he was the fourth fastest to reach the milestone. He did it in his 726th game and trails only Mike Bossy (725 GP), Mario Lemieux (550), and Wayne Gretzky (464). McDavid’s current scoring pace this season of 1.36 points/game would have him rank 55th all-time in scoring with 1,185 points. If he reaches 1,200 points, he’d be 53rd. He will continue his quick ascent on the all-time scoring list, and by the end of next season, he’ll be in the top 40. I’ve written many times over the past few seasons that 2,000 points is well within his reach. We are seeing elite players play longer and extend their peak scoring years. If McDavid finishes around the 1,200-point mark at the end of this season, his 11th in the league, then he would need to average 67 points over the next 12 seasons to reach 2,000 points. Him playing until he is 40 seems plausible. The only thing I see stopping him from reaching 2,000 points would be multiple injuries.
— The Oilers’ PP continues to sizzle. They scored only on their only man advantage last night, and it only took them eight seconds to score. The lack of PP chances is a byproduct of their perimeter play and low shot totals. The Oilers aren’t putting opposing players in positions to take penalties often enough. They need to attack the net more with the puck.
— The Oilers activated Alec Regula from IR this morning, and he’s expected to play his first game since October 11th, when he got hit hard twice by Evander Kane. Regula missed 12 games, and his puck-moving ability will be a welcome addition to the third pair.
— Ike Howard has taken a team-high five minor penalties, including three in the last four games, and his last four have been hooking, tripping, tripping, and hooking. None have been selfish or undisciplined, but he’s got caught reaching rather than moving his feet. It is a small detail, but one he’ll want to fix. I still believe that once Zach Hyman and Mattias Janmark return, Howard would benefit from a stint in Bakersfield, where he can play 20 minutes a night and touch the puck a lot. He hasn’t looked overwhelmed in the NHL, but I’d rather a young player be playing more minutes and gaining confidence in the AHL. He’s been able to earn an NHL pay cheque for one month, which is huge, but he’d benefit from more playing time in the AHL. With the emergence of Jack Roslovic on the second line, I don’t see how Howard can get the minutes he needs in the NHL at this moment.
— Kris Knoblauch usually doesn’t like forwards sitting out both games of a back-to-back, so I’d lean to David Tomášek drawing back in tonight.
— Last night was another example of Edmonton playing solid for the majority of the game, but then they had a few big errors, and it cost them. The big error and/or wrong decision is their main enemy right now.
LINEUPS
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Roslovic
RNH-McDavid-Mangiapane
Savoie-Henrique-Frederic
Howard-Philp-Tomášek
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Kulak-Regula
Skinner
The Oilers didn’t skate this morning, so this lineup is an educated guess. We know Stuart Skinner will start, and Regula should play after being activated from IR. Edmonton might go 11-7 as well if Knoblauch wants to protect Regula’s minutes in his first game back. We’ll find out when Knoblauch speaks around 5:40 p.m. MT.
Robertson-Johnston-Rantanen
Seguin-Steel-Bourque
Bäck-Hryckowian-Blackwell
Erne-Faksa (?)-Bastian
Lindell-Heiskanen
Harley-Lyubushkin
Bichsel-Petrovic
DeSmith
Jake Oettinger won’t play as he and his wife just had a baby. Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz, and Matt Duchene are out with injuries. Radek Faksa will be a game-time decision, and if he can’t play, the Stars will dress 11-7. DeSmith has only made three starts, and he’s posted an .873Sv% and 3.28 GAA, but the Stars have been dreadful defensively in those games, as his expected Sv% is .868.
The Stars will be highly motivated tonight. Edmonton ended their Stanley Cup hopes each of the past two seasons in the Conference Final, and head coach Glen Gulutzan is facing his former team for the first time. The Oilers have to be ready to play and try to play consistently for 60 minutes.
Game Day Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk
TONIGHT…
GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers’ pain continues with another extra-time loss. They lose 4-3 in Big D.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers have an egregious error that leads to a goal against.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Regula tallies his first career NHL assist.